NLHE ring table hand

[colin_147]

Hands like this dont play well in tournament or in sit and go's, but as for N/L ring even if you have a 2% edge its a go every single time. As for attempting to put this dude on a hand, its a fine strategy, but i feel that watching betting patterns is a much more accurate way of knowing where you are in a hand.

The re-raise over-bet tells me that this dude wants to take the pot down right now, he dosnt want a caller, he is weak. Why not flat call with the better hand, i certainly know thats what id be doing here with a set. You cant assume your opponent has the nuts every time, why be afraid of a flush every time there is 2 of a suit on the board, especially with one isolated player.

Its always difficult to put your opponent on a particular hand, and watching the betting pattern would normally work well. But with only a couple of hands played at this table, its tough to do that, just as tough as putting your opponent on a hand

I think calling here is still not the best move. If he does have AJ, then he still has 5 outs to take down the pot, making him a 4/1 dog but why give him a free card? Raise the dude - and you also get an indication of where you are in the hand

Having position in this siuation also makes a big difference. Sure, a slow-play check is a good move when you hold the nuts but with only top pair you gotta be thinking about taking this pot down asap

In this situation, it doesnt really matter if you call or raise cos you will be pot commited in either case - and will get called.

But with a bigger stack, you could be making some nice plays here

 

[KillerKat]

Its always difficult to put your opponent on a particular hand, and watching the betting pattern would normally work well. But with only a couple of hands played at this table, its tough to do that, just as tough as putting your opponent on a hand

I think calling here is still not the best move. If he does have AJ, then he still has 5 outs to take down the pot, making him a 3/1 dog but why give him a free card? Raise the dude - and you also get an indication of where you are in the hand

Having position in this siuation also makes a big difference. Sure, a slow-play check is a good move when you hold the nuts but with only top pair you gotta be thinking about taking this pot down asap

In this situation, it doesnt really matter if you call or raise cos you will be pot commited in either case - and will get called.

But with a bigger stack, you could be making some nice plays here

I think Tenbob is saying If the other guy has hit a set why would he push and not just call.

 

[Ima6T4]

My recommending that you push wasn't necessarily result oriented, it was that my read on the table was he was betting with aggression and not the best hand. With that flop, the odds that he had the perfect hand for both the nut flush and the gutshot are very minimal. While it was possible he held the Q-J combination, I don't think it was highly possible. Even if it is a 53% -47% match up, I play the 53% to win, just as I would take a low pair to AK HU. So, yes, as a neutral observer to that hand, I still bet the Kings hard.

 

[Four Dogs]

I see the point about calling or pushing with the slight edge. Given an unlimited bankroll, 2% EV is still EV, and if you could see his cards this would be true. But you can't. The problem here is that, with the uncertainty of his holding, it's not really 2%.

For some reason, everyone but me seems to be of the opinion that, given no information at all on your opponent, its safer to assuming he's bluffing, or underestimating the value of his hand. It's my experience that in most cases, this type of bet means exactly what it's supposed to mean.

J.L.'s betting pattern was representing nothing less than top pair. Proplayer had no reason to believe that his over the top bet would not be called. How many of you would have made such a move with anything less that 2 pair? How many of you here based your decision to bet on what you hoped, rather than what you knew? Yesterday, I folded a Queen high flush based on the way I perceived my opponents in the hand. I'll never know if I got taken for a ride, and I'm not going to spend much time wondering about it either. If it was a bluff, then it was a good one.

With so many possible holdings that can beat you, I'm not sure how anyone who is unable to lay down a mere pair can ever be a long term winner in this game. And with so many of you advocating it, it makes me more suspicious than ever of that 40% win rate of on-line players.

 

[robwhufc]

The pot is laying you 21-14, or 3-2
/FP

No, I dont think this is right - the pot is currently $35, you've got to put in $14 more to have a crack at it - 35/14 is 2.5/1. At those odds, you dont have to be a favourite at all. There are a number of hands that will get you beat, a hell of a lot more that you'll beat. pot odds, it's a call for me, definately.

 

[Ima6T4]

Valid points 4dogs, and good observation that J.L's betting was more readable in this scenario than his opponents. While I agree with you that too many people force their top pairs without considerable thought, I'm in the hopes that our members are commenting more on this scenario in particular, than in general. My comments on this were meant to be hand specific, and in other situations my tops have folded many times to a good bet. Sure you wonder if it was a good fold for a second or two, but the next hand makes that go away soon enough.

 

[robwhufc]

J.L.'s betting pattern was representing nothing less than top pair. Proplayer had no reason to believe that his over the top bet would not be called. How many of you would have made such a move with anything less that 2 pair? How many of you here based your decision to bet on what you hoped, rather than what you knew? Yesterday, I folded a Queen high flush based on the way I perceived my opponents in the hand. I'll never know if I got taken for a ride, and I'm not going to spend much time wondering about it either. If it was a bluff, then it was a good one.

With so many possible holdings that can beat you, I'm not sure how anyone who is unable to lay down a mere pair can ever be a long term winner in this game.

I'm guilty of skimming over this thread, and keep thinking i've missed something, but I don't get this 4dogs (sorry). Yes JL's betting does suggest top pair possibly, but he's got better than that, he's got an overpair.

And "so many possible holdings that can beat you?". Again, I keep thinking i've missed something, but I make it 7. AA,JJ,44,55,45,J4 and J5. Last 2 would be very lucky for opponent who shouldn't be raising with those. 44, 55 and 45 are more likely to be called (or folded) rather than raised with pre-flop. AA and JJ are possibilities of course, but that's only 2 hands. It's JL's 2nd hand on table, I see opponent trying to put him in his place (and JL's bet doesn't neccessarily mean top pair - could be standard continuation bet which would be folded to re-raise). I'd never fold here, not with over pair, 2.5/1 pot odds and small number of better hands (even then you can still catch on turn and river), no way!

 

[F Paulsson]

No, I dont think this is right - the pot is currently $35, you've got to put in $14 more to have a crack at it - 35/14 is 2.5/1. At those odds, you dont have to be a favourite at all. There are a number of hands that will get you beat, a hell of a lot more that you'll beat. Pot odds, it's a call for me, definately.

Engh. Yeah, I screwed up.

My point is the same as Rob's though: You don't need to be ahead at all that often to make this call (or rather, push) worth it. There are a LOT of hands that you beat, and there are relatively few that you're seriously behind to. I can't really see how any other play at this point would be correct, short of accidently seeing the other guy flash JJ as he's dealt it.

/FP

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Fold. Big pairs have very different objectives pre flop and on the flop and later streets.

If you cant get all of your money in the middle preflop, then control the pot post flop. The bet was good but when he takes it to 21 go ahead and toss it.

But wait what if he is bluffing? So what your out a few bucks. If he picks up a draw, you are at best 53 to 47 and at worst you are 5 to 1 behind.

All cardschatters make this solemn oath. I will not go broke with one pair, (unless its prelop)
I will work on pot control, and being willing to toss these hands early, if the pot appears to be growing unmanagable.
I will be willing to jeaprodize my entire stack on a set or better.
An open ended straight with a flush draw.
An open ender or flush draw with one pair.

Tptk and over pairs, give implied odds, they dont get them. I realize that one pair is a long term loser, and promise to never go broke after the flop with them.
If a donk will stack off pre flop i will commit all of my chips.

I may write an article about this. Really good topic.

Bill

 

[F Paulsson]

Fold. Big pairs have very different objectives pre flop and on the flop and later streets.

What factors do you take into account when you decide to fold? To me, the fact that this is a low buy-in online shorthanded table, where there was a preflop raise by the guy who now pushed all-in on the flop means that I'm willing to call, because there are few things in his range that beats me, and even fewer that I don't have odds to play against. The pot has reached a fairly decent size, too, being almost the size of a buy-in already before he raised it up.

I may write an article about this. Really good topic.

Yes, it is, actually. My no-limit game is not at all where I'd like it to be, and I feel that this is a situation where I have a lot to learn. I'd like to read such an article by you, Bill.

 

[robwhufc]

I'd like to read such an article by you, Bill.

We'll considering I barely understood a word of his post, I think i'll pass.

 

[Four Dogs]

Tptk and over pairs, give implied odds, they dont get them.

I like this.

Rob, disagree if you must, but what's not to understand?

 

[robwhufc]

Rob, disagree if you must, but what's not to understand?

Sorry 4dogs (and sorry Bill!). It was 50% don't understand the answer and 50% dont understand the terminology. To deconstruct the post (sorry again Bill!)

Big pairs have very different objectives pre flop and on the flop and later streets.

Eh? The objective pre-flop, on the flop and post flop is the same, to win the pot. Until it's obvious you're behind, you should assume you're in front with an overpair. Nothing on the board would suggest this wasn't the case, only the betting of your opponent.

The bet was good but when he takes it to 21 go ahead and toss it.

Even though you are getting 5/2 pot odds? - JL's liability on this hand is capped at $29.50, so it's not going to be an overly expensive chase. Also it's $14 to call, not $21.

I will work on pot control, and being willing to toss these hands early, if the pot appears to be growing unmanagable.

If you've got the best hand, then you should try and win as much as you can with it. If the pot is going to become "unmanagable" then you are playing at too high a limit.

I will be willing to jeaprodize my entire stack on a set or better.
An open ended straight with a flush draw.
An open ender or flush draw with one pair.

Understood, but does this mean you should give up a hand which you are likely to be ahead on the information you have just because you've run into resistance? This is a short handed table, at low level and JL has no "form" for opponents to pick up on. His options are simple - call/all - in (pretty much same thing) and get 5/2 odds for a hand that at the moment is only behind a handful of cards (and is ahead of most of the "likely" holdings), or fold.


Tptk and over pairs, give implied odds, they dont get them.

Dont understand what is meant, and dont see what implied odds have to do with it - JL has got 5/2 odds, these will alter only very slightly when he goes all-in, and thats that! And what is Tptk?

I realize that one pair is a long term loser, and promise to never go broke after the flop with them.

Maybe, but this case is specific - you've got overpair, it's a small table (so winning hands will generally be weaker), and you've got easily sufficient pot odds to call.

Bill, if you're still on this thread, I think your advice may be valid for a 10 handed high stakes No limit game at the Bellagio, but did you take into account pot odds, JL's stack size, the short table and the low limits when you did your reply? If you did, what sort of hands do you think are callable at this level in this situation?

 

[robwhufc]

Top pair top kicker - worked it out, but you can type it out Bill (we are beginners after all!

 

[Four Dogs]

TPTK. Oh that's what you meant? lol, I had to work that one out too. Rob, I almost agree with calling/ betting because of the pot odds. But I've still got a problem with this. First off, the pot odds are really more like 2:1. Except for scooby, we're all talking about a an all-in bet that will certainly be called. So, JL will bet $19 and Proplayer WILL match the last $5. Bringing the pot to an expected $38 +/- before the all-in bet. If Pro had the most likely holding, 2 pair or a set, then you are now drawing to 2 outs and are the 11:1 underdog. Nowhere's near what is needed to call.

Aside from that, I'm starting to have a problem with pot odds in general. Something seems to be missing from the equation. Variance I think. I'm not ready to get really involved with it at this point, but I think in many cases, pot odds should be weighed against your future prospects of making up the difference in later hands with solid play and a reasonable chipstack. Most of us don't have unlimited bankrolls, or are unwilling to reach for our wallets everytime we risk our entire stack when we're 2:1 underdogs just because we had the pot odds. Slow and steady wins the race. If your a steady winner anyway, why not wait 'till you have a real lock, better than a pair anyway, to vie for the big pots. I think this is what Bill means by a pot growing unmanagable.

 

[Bill_Hollorian]

Big pairs do have very different objectives preflop and post flop. To say that the objective is to win the pot is a given. Hnads have certain degrees of value preflop. For example AA and KK have more value than the blinds in any given game. Therfor no matter what the position, if you raise and steal the blinds you have received no realized value for the hand. 10,10 is worth about the blinds so if you steal with them, you are getting solid value long term.

So, if a raise will not isolate a player, and it will only steal the blinds, these big hands need to be limped. Hopefully a raise behind you will now allow a nice raise, getting quality value for the hand. Let's say you limp, but noone limps behind you, pot contol now becomes the objective. Top pair top kicker is usually not the winner at showdown, yes sometimes it is but it usually takes more. So, if you cant get all your money in preflop, your goals should now switch to controlling the pot.

Next, Yes build the story. You bet and announce I have TPTK or better. He says Im not worried. Could he be blufing? yup, but who cares. If he is willing to bet that much to win that little on a bluff, wait hell do it again. If its a bluff it is a huge leak. So, lets give him credit. TPTK is most likely no good. He is telling you he is wiling to play for all of the chips with this hand right now. It is my opinion that be.


I got to run, Ill addrees the rest later.

Cool
Bill

 

[Gothfunc]

Hi Jesus, thanks for bringing this thread to my attention. I've pondered over it and come to the conclusion that follows. I'm a beginner, so please point out flaws in my logic.

Since you haven't got a read on the player, we have to give them the respect a typical player would receive. Firstly, what's he putting you on (ignoring his hand)? Either tptk, flush draw, or an overpair.

If he hit his set he'll want to make the odds bad to draw to a flush. If you have an overpair you might find it hard to lay down, so he's still good to move in.

Given this information, what can we put him on? AJh, A2h, A3h, 44, 55, JJ are the major candidates. I'd also include the other AXh combinations, as he has a 46.6% of drawing out, plus the chance he'll push you off your tptk or draw.

In total, this gives him 68.2% equity from our perspective. Our equity is therefore 31.8%, or roughly 2:1 against.

The current pot is 36.25, but if we're calling we're allin, so that's +5 making it 41.25, and 19 to 'call'. This equates to a pot of 2.2:1.

In theory, the figures say this move justifies a call. Unfortunately, we wouldn't be leaving ourselved much margin for error, and it'd be hard to work this all out so quickly. Let's try though:

We have him on nut flush draw or 3 sets. There are two hearts down, and we assume he has the ace, leaving 10 combinations. 3 sets which have 3 combinations each compared to the draw.

3 x 3 = 9

What's the chance of us beating the sets? We have 2 outs, and 2 cards to come.

2 x 4 = 8%
9 x 8 = 72

What's the chance of us beating the flush draws? Well he's got some other outs as well as the flush, aces and maybe the straight, so let's hazard a guess at 55% in our favor.

10x55 = 550

Let's add them together and work out the average.

72+550 = 622
622/19 = 32.8%

Close enough. I guess we might round off the 19 to 20 for that last bit just to make it easier to work out in our head, making it approximately 31%.

So it's a close call as far as I see it. I think I would call if I completed that calculation in time.

 

[Gothfunc]

Woops, regarding the end of paragraph 4, if he's on a nut flush draw he won't want to push you off your draw, but the fact he'll push you off tptk and the small chance he'll push you off an overpair (or in fact 99, TT) is enough in my opinion.

 

[Four Dogs]

Well?

This was a good thread. Nearly forgot about it 'till I was going through my subscribed list. I'm sorry JL, did you ever post the end result of this hand. I'm a results oriented guy and I'm curious as to how my gut instincts stacked up against the actual outcome.

 

[gord962]

Not sure how I missed this thread for 4 months, but my two cents. First, I would have put him on TP, with a flush draw with either A, K, or Q kicker. I think the biggest reason he pushed this hand is simply it was JLs second hand, therefor knowing JL doesn't have a read on him, he is going to force the new guy at the table make a tough decision. Villian also has no read on JL, so he may think JL are trying to steal with a re-raise because you missed the flop with AK, as has been mentioned a few times above. There are enough outs here that can give him the nuts, so to him a large re-raise isn't too dangerous, thinking you are going to most likely fold to his re-raise.

I get paid off quite frequently with people playing this way against me. I usually stack off before the first orbit if I hit a decent hand before the table can see my range of hands I play.

edit: damn, 8 months old, wtf was I doing all this time??

 

[Jesus Lederer]

This was a good thread. Nearly forgot about it 'till I was going through my subscribed list. I'm sorry JL, did you ever post the end result of this hand. I'm a results oriented guy and I'm curious as to how my gut instincts stacked up against the actual outcome.

He had Ah3h and hit the straight on the turn.

 

[Four Dogs]

So much for instincts. A semi-bluff? I knew that was a possibility, but I still say without a read, folding was the best option.

This thread was a classic. Alot of good discussion.

 

[Bombjack]

It's a call even if you know he has such a big draw. It's 56%-44% to him but the money already in the pot makes a call good, as JL is getting something like 2:1 on the rest of his stack. For it to be a bad call he'd have to be less than 35% or so to win.

 

[Four Dogs]

I It's 56%-44% to him but the money already in the pot makes a call good, as JL is getting something like 2:1 on the rest of his stack. For it to be a bad call he'd have to be less than 35% or so to win.

If he's up against trips or 2 pair he's about a 9:1 underdog. These scenarios are not rare but are often difficult to identify, and anyone who is willing to take a mere pair (or overpair) this far without a very good read on their opponent will fall victim to it everytime. I think the problem here is that, not only was it an overpair, but it was a pair of kings. It's emotionally difficult to let this sure winner go. As it turns out, JL's opponent was making a semi-bluff and his call was correct. I wish it hadn't been because I think many readers will get mislead into believing that a an overpair is more powerfull than it really is. There's no shame in getting bluffed out of a hand. Just give yourself credit for a world class fold and move on. You'll usually never know the difference.