Aballinamion
Dark Lord of the Sith
Bronze Level
Okay, this is my last try and I'll try to be more scientific here.
Let's consider possible ranges for our Villain with VPIP of 60:
99-22,A9s-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s,32s,A9o-A2o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o (30%)
It is impossible to define one's range only having a VPIP for a X ammount of hands. However it is possible to try to define logical hands that could be calling down a very strong/polarized raise preflop (11 blinds).
I do not assume Villain is calling with a wider range than 30% of hands preflop.
The postflop
The flop
A lower flop with nothing to worry about. Now, when Hero raises 11 blinds preflop and comes for 2/3 pot on the flop (23 blinds) what Hero expects to be paid with?
Villain doesn't have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, some busted Aces can easily fold, except A2-A5s, and a couple of pocket pairs that are connected to the flop such as 55 and 66 for example.
Considering the fact that we polarized preflop and we are out of position in relation to two other players, yes, I really think this move is silly, with all due respect, I said preposterous and non-sense, but I didn't entirely explained why.
It seems very much that many players, when they have strong holdings preflop and they are the aggressors they are going for stacks in a great variety of board types, including boards that aren't scary at all for our range.
This flop quoted isn't scary at all, one more reason for us to ask a very simple question: which hands are going to be paying 2/3 pot OTF? Plus, when we go for such a huge sizing are we for value or for bluff?
Yes, Villain can still call with 55, 66, 77, 88 and 99 that are just a bunch of combos. Plus the drawing aces. such as A5, A4, A3 and A2 and sometimes any ace is continuing, but we are understimating the ability of our opponent if we truly believe fishes are continuing with any Ax, when it comes such huge sizings, preflop and on the flop.
Yes, we are winning from 55, 66, 77, 88 and 99, we are winning from the drawing Ax, what else? What we don't know for sure is if these hands are continuing after strong polarization.
Let me be even more scientific and consider that when we raise limpers from the BB we can have a ton of hands doing the same such as QJs, JTs, T9s, KTs, you name it.
If everytime we raise limpers from the BB, with all of our raising range, and we elect to polarize preflop and flop, we are totally non-sense unbalanced. We are overbluffing, overplaying our value/bluff range, because we have more hands than just TT+ and AQs+ when we raise limpers from the blinds, or this is too much preposterous of my side?
Now, we considered busted and losing hands that could call on the flop, we must also consider hands that have us beat, although they are just a couple of combos, such as 33, 22 and 44, A5, which has the nuts for the flop, and (who knows what a whale can call with) JJ, QQ, KK and AA, in a small frequency.
The Turn
This King doesn't change the picture very much and we must ask ourselves which hands are we trying to extract value now, because we didn't want to give a free river for our opponent, in spite that we are blocking some flush combos of clubs and there is only one straight draw in the line.
I am on board of pushing this river versus a whale when we are winning in fact, with KK, AK, KQ, and our bluffs are the SDs and FDs.
IF we are jamming this turn when it completes a Kx, having an underpair, we must be jamming it with all of our pocket pairs that raised limpers preflop, and we must have a more wide bluffing range than usual, so we are basically jamming every piece of equity we get, turning our move unbalanced, thus, not profitable.
Putting ourselves into the Whale's shoes, are we happy, with whatever hand we decided to limp preflop and call two huge bets preflop and flop, when it comes a King on the turn, to come up with calling a jam, when we don't own a King ourselves? Nope, we are not calling because we are whales, but not retartad, we are calling this down when we indeed own any King, that we believe it has value, such as KQ, KJ, KT, even K9, we are calling with sets and two pair, and once in while we are calling with SD+FD+ one pair, or whatever.
Also, it really doesn't matter if the whale called you and showed a busted 66 or just a draw that didn't complete on the river: what really matters is that we find a way to make automatically profitable moves, no matter the result of the hand.
Again, we do not bet because out opponent is a Whale or Daniel Negreanu, we don't do nothing at the tables based on this reasons, or because "we didn't want to play a third street of value", these aren't scientific reasons, per se. We bet for bluff and for value, so when I say it is preposterous everything and anything that I heard around here, I am not being sarcarstic, I am being realistic.
I will quit my posting here in CardsChat, that's what I have to say.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa
