Poker, Game of Luck or Skill?

bredaman7 · Apr 15, 2014

Nowadays, poker is just a game of luck and chance

Hi Everyone,
This is my first thread, I want to join this forum because I want to share my experiences, about poker or gambling. Ok, let me start regarding the title. poker game that was considered as game of skill is no longer true. Why I can say this? just think about a match of two football teams. They are in the same skill, same level, and so what is the factor that determine the winner? LUCK, yes, luck, either by penalty, or wait until one of the teams got tired and have little focus. This example also valid to poker, when all the players on the table know how to read tells, betting pattern, playing position, know value of cards, then what is the point of having those skills, while others also knew it, it becomes what so called "common knowledge" in game theory. Nowadays, we can see lots of information bout poker everywhere, especially youtube. Books aren't that exclusive anymore, everybody can get "free" information. So nowadays poker almost can be called "gamble". You play poker and you can say that you "gamble". It is like blackjack when you cannot count cards anymore. I agree that there are still lots of fishes out there when you can suck out. But still, you "gamble" to find a fish, if there is any. so, now poker is just a game of luck and chance, you wait until you got the best cards, best flop, best turn, and best river. That is why poker legends are slowly being replaced by young poker players, they cant dominate this poker world anymore.

crusinnn · Apr 15, 2014

bredaman7 said:
Hi Everyone,
This is my first thread, I want to join this forum because I want to share my experiences, about poker or gambling. Ok, let me start regarding the title. Poker game that was considered as game of skill is no longer true. Why I can say this? just think about a match of two football teams. They are in the same skill, same level, and so what is the factor that determine the winner? LUCK, yes, luck, either by penalty, or wait until one of the teams got tired and have little focus. This example also valid to poker, when all the players on the table know how to read tells, betting pattern, playing position, know value of cards, then what is the point of having those skills, while others also knew it, it becomes what so called "common knowledge" in game theory. Nowadays, we can see lots of information bout poker everywhere, especially youtube. Books aren't that exclusive anymore, everybody can get "free" information. So nowadays poker almost can be called "gamble". You play poker and you can say that you "gamble". It is like blackjack when you cannot count cards anymore. I agree that there are still lots of fishes out there when you can suck out. But still, you "gamble" to find a fish, if there is any. so, now poker is just a game of luck and chance, you wait until you got the best cards, best flop, best turn, and best river. That is why poker legends are slowly being replaced by young poker players, they cant dominate this poker world anymore.

Tell me something I havnt heard before but yet ppl still continues to play . Do you think it's because they are searching for fish or trying to improve their skills so they can be better than others or better at the game? How can ppl on the same table have same skill lvl. Those skills you mentioned everyone knows about them. What about individual skills? Your own skills? There's so much more room for improvment no matter how good you are. If Ledgends are slowly being replaced then they are getting their ass whooped by smarter , better skilled peeps. So no I don't agree that poker is just a game of luck and chance, Even though luck/chance is something good to have on your side, it's not the only factors that makes you win or loose. I consider luck/chance a bonus added to your skills.

punctual · Apr 15, 2014

bredaman7 said:
Hi Everyone,
This is my first thread, I want to join this forum because I want to share my experiences, about poker or gambling. Ok, let me start regarding the title. Poker game that was considered as game of skill is no longer true. Why I can say this? just think about a match of two football teams. They are in the same skill, same level, and so what is the factor that determine the winner? LUCK, yes, luck, either by penalty, or wait until one of the teams got tired and have little focus. This example also valid to poker, when all the players on the table know how to read tells, betting pattern, playing position, know value of cards, then what is the point of having those skills, while others also knew it, it becomes what so called "common knowledge" in game theory. Nowadays, we can see lots of information bout poker everywhere, especially youtube. Books aren't that exclusive anymore, everybody can get "free" information. So nowadays poker almost can be called "gamble". You play poker and you can say that you "gamble". It is like blackjack when you cannot count cards anymore. I agree that there are still lots of fishes out there when you can suck out. But still, you "gamble" to find a fish, if there is any. so, now poker is just a game of luck and chance, you wait until you got the best cards, best flop, best turn, and best river. That is why poker legends are slowly being replaced by young poker players, they cant dominate this poker world anymore.

You seem to suggest there are two players in the world who are exactly the same, talent-wise: I disagree with this. But even if this were true, you also seem to suggest that humans are machines that don't make mistakes; this is wrong. When two players of the same talent are matched up the one who makes the most mistakes will lose. and everyone makes mistakes, no one is perfect....

Faust · Apr 15, 2014

In my opinion it has been always a game of chance. However as the knowledge of poker expands, the proportion of the results that we leave to randomness decreases, but still it's present.
Regarding to play with other persons i totally disagree with your opinnion. I think it's a matter of discovering the psichological aspects of the game, and of course not everyone is aware of it or who is aware have few knowledge. I believe that a good psichologist that would learn how to play poker could control his winnings with no efforts, but that's just my opinion of course.

thatgreekdude · Apr 15, 2014

teams of even skill and only one wins? the one who works the hardest and devises a good strategy to counter-act there opponent will be the victor in the long run

every single poker player is exploitable you've just got to find out how

aa88wildbill · Apr 15, 2014

'When you play poker, you can say that you gamble'. When you say it, maybe this is true, but I wouldn't say that. As a matter of fact, I try to reduce the gamble down to zero if possible, then bet! And you can't compare sports betting, to poker there's no comparison. Apples and oranges!! LOL.

PrayForSpades · Apr 15, 2014

I feel where you are coming from, but in the long run poker is always a game of skill, a good poker player will always be a winning player in the long run.

Zack_theKnife · Apr 15, 2014

I've felt the same way when AA gets cracked haha. Fact of the matter is poker is not a static game because psychology is a fundamental part of the game. There is a disparity between a pro and an amateur that no amount of 'luck' could possibly account for.

Zack_theKnife · Apr 15, 2014

'Luck' (I prefer chance) is a variable. You can always reduce if not completely eliminate variables.

spstevens · Apr 15, 2014

I would disagree , it matters not that all the players have access to the information or even that they all read it etc.
People differ greatly in skill and temperament , even if all doctors ,mechanics,pilots ,stockbrokers etc go to the same school they are far from equals in skill and ability.

The same applies to poker as we are not robots.

rifflemao · Apr 16, 2014

bredaman7 said:
so, now poker is just a game of luck and chance, you wait until you got the best cards, best flop, best turn, and best river. That is why poker legends are slowly being replaced by young poker players, they cant dominate this poker world anymore.

Are you saying that the young guns are luckier than the old guns? :icon_scra

(btw, some of the old guns are still firing away successfully on the wsop circuit)

rytciaq · Apr 16, 2014

I disagree. Thread Author, why, in your opinion good poker players like Martin Finger for example, almost always reach the final table in tournaments? What are they, luckiest players in the world? Yes, it's a bit of luck and you can't do anything if your opponent hits quads on flop, but in a long run a skilled player will win.

bredaman7 · Apr 16, 2014

lets assume two best poker players out there have two best pair cards, AA and KK. At this time, they have slightly equal chance of winning, no matter how skilful they are, AA couldn't fold preflop and KK as well, so what determines the winner is only one thing, luck, there is no skill involved, and mostly we saw this kind of situation, poker is just a game of luck and chance, skill is invalid where others are as good as us, forget about level, just they are good enough.

bredaman7 · Apr 16, 2014

rytciaq said:
I disagree. Thread Author, why, in your opinion good poker players like Martin Finger for example, almost always reach the final table in tournaments? What are they, luckiest players in the world? Yes, it's a bit of luck and you can't do anything if your opponent hits quads on flop, but in a long run a skilled player will win.

martin finger was not always in final table, and also others WSOP champion, where r they now? in the past, like stu ungar, he can won WSOP more than once because: 1. Number of players in the field is smaller, 2. Not everyone knows how to play good. 3. One of his final winning hands was totally a luck.

rytciaq · Apr 16, 2014

bredaman7 said:
martin finger was not always in final table, and also others WSOP champion, where r they now? in the past, like stu ungar, he can won WSOP more than once because: 1. Number of players in the field is smaller, 2. Not everyone knows how to play good. 3. One of his final winning hands was totally a luck.

It doesn't matter, it's only an example I gave. I just mentioned Martin because I recently watched ept10 super high roller, so he came to my mind.

spstevens · Apr 16, 2014

bredaman7 said:
martin finger was not always in final table, and also others WSOP champion, where r they now? in the past, like stu ungar, he can won WSOP more than once because: 1. Number of players in the field is smaller, 2. Not everyone knows how to play good. 3. One of his final winning hands was totally a luck.

Splitting hairs ,people simply are not equal in talent across the board.
Education will get you to a point and cannot be dismissed but some folks just have the knack for the field they choose and shine brighter than the rest .

And this being a poker discussion I would apply it to poker players as well.
On any given day it is true you might beat the best but sit with Ivy ,Ungar,Brunson , (add your poker hero here )for weeks months etc and you will be busto if you don't have the skill set needed to compete.

RamdeeBen · Apr 16, 2014

You example of two teams being equal is wrong. Firstly a team with more stamina or who's breaking through a defence more often than the other, thus giving a chance of someone giving away a penalty means that the other team is more skilled than the other and they aren't equal in terms of skill and it isn't coming down to luck. If we say for arguments sake you have a set of equally good players on a team who are all just as good as each other yet one team gets more tired quicker than the other, then overall the team with the more stamina now has an edge over this team so we should expect that team to come out on top more often.

In regards to poker, it's about making adjustments to other players games. If someone has picked up on ones betting pattern or timing tells etc, good players will adjust and so will the other player who knows he's adjusting. Noone can be equally as good as the other in poker imo, someone will always have an edge on someone else even if that edge is small, it's still and edge which will equate to them having a better winrate over a large sample. It's all about who can adjust more over the long term.

So no, poker isn't a game of a luck/chance between two people who are similar in regards to their poker abilities. A losing player who can't beat another player and thinks it's coming down to luck or chance yet feels he's just as good as them, is actually in denial and a dog in the game they are playing.

theRaven68 · Apr 16, 2014

Well, it is wrong from the beginning, two teams may be equal but what do we do with the others. there is not only two teams nor two players.
what is skill / the learned ability to carry out a task,
any two person dont learn on the same way and in a same time, so their skills will be not equal.
after that, socialization did things on the personal level and behavior.
some luck (chanse) is needed and is necessary.
and at the end you can divide teams and players, at least, in four categories
skilled/lucky, skilled/unlucky, unskilled/lucky and unskilled/unlucky

Arjonius · Apr 16, 2014

It is ridiculous to draw a parallel between teams of equal skill and poker players. For one thing, teams aren't equally skilled. They can be very close overall, but they're never absolutely equal at every position or in every match-up.

For another, poker gives you the chance to pick your opponents. Not every single player who sits at your tables, but you can choose to play at tables or in tournaments where you know or can reasonably assume that you're + or -EV.

Ubercroz · Apr 16, 2014

If what you are saying is true, then why are there so many people that I beat regularly? And why are there so many who beat me?

If it was luck, then I would be breakeven against everyone. Instead I target the players I recognize I can beat, and avoid the players I cannot.

Skill. If I am losing in poker it is not about luck. Usually it is because I am not playing my best game, or I am distracted, or I am in someway not doing what I should.

If my skill cannot over come variance in the long run then I am bad at poker.

There will always be younger great players showing up. and they will be better than the players before them. the reason is that they get to take advantage of the existing knowledge base and then advance from there. they get to stand on the shoulders of giants and reach even greater heights.

Poker is not a game of luck. If you think it is, then you are probably not very good. People who complain about having bad run's all the time are not unlucky, they are bad at poker.

torosanti012 · Apr 16, 2014

if what you say it;s true , it would be impossible to make a living out of it and trust me there's a lot of people who do that

rifflemao · Apr 16, 2014

bredaman7 said:
lets assume two best poker players out there have two best pair cards, AA and KK. At this time, they have slightly equal chance of winning, no matter how skilful they are, AA couldn't fold preflop and KK as well, so what determines the winner is only one thing, luck, there is no skill involved, and mostly we saw this kind of situation, poker is just a game of luck and chance, skill is invalid where others are as good as us, forget about level, just they are good enough.

Um, the "teams" AA and KK are nowhere close to being "slightly equal". That is not a classic coinflip or race situation in which AA has only a slight edge. And fyi, last year's winner of the WSOP Main Event 5-bet folded KK preflop because he was fairly certain the villain had AA. The best players can fold KK preflop in certain situations.

The poker-is-gambling argument is easy:

In poker, you must pay the blinds regardless of the strength of your hand. The blinds and antes are a forced bet in which the bettor is uncertain to win; therefore, poker is gambling.

The end.

But skill...
Zip it.
Hold on a s...
Zip.
But what about cash g...
Zipped.
Ok, then how do you explain repeat main event wi...
Winzip.
You're full of shi...
Zip it good.
Kimmel kissed Johnny Depp on tv but that doesn't mean he's g...
Zippity do da, 81% preflop because Kimmel likes pirates and scissors.

SirFlynn · Apr 16, 2014

It can definitely seem that way when you're watching the big events, and somebody goes all in pre-flop, and wins a massive pot.

psy0nyd3 · Apr 16, 2014

Luck can change the game Bredaman, but it doesnt determine the way it plays out. Two players who seem evenly skilled throughout a hundred hands will not given 10000+, one of them will have a lot more leaks and bad habits. Whoever has the least amount of leaks and bad habits will be more profitable than the other.

ramdeebam said:
A losing player who can't beat another player and thinks it's coming down to luck or chance yet feels he's just as good as them, is actually in denial and a dog in the game they are playing.

Superiority complex = cha ching!

Arjonius · Apr 17, 2014

bredaman7 said:
so, now poker is just a game of luck and chance, you wait until you got the best cards, best flop, best turn, and best river. That is why poker legends are slowly being replaced by young poker players, they cant dominate this poker world anymore.

This thinking is not consistent with reality. The younger players who dominate the poker world now are very aggressive. They definitely don't sit there waiting for the best cards.

Poker, Game of Luck or Skill?

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