Is this live or online as it makes a difference in my opinion? Live I think 3 betting is fine and you could do 7 or 8 BBs since live you can 3 bet a little smaller if you would like (plus it might be helpful if we think we can go smaller as this is an UTG opener that could 4 bet jam and we would have to fold... I think we would have to fold anyway). If this is online, though, I think this plays differently especially since $250 online tourneys are high up on the spectrum. Online here, I think given that this is UTG I dont like jamming 30 BBs as much but I think we can here and I personally like it better than 3 betting for over 25% of my stack. My preference here, even though it sounds and looks weak and passive, is to just call in position since this is an UTG opener.
Flop: Villain checks to the raiser and I think unless villain knows you have a history of trapping, then when you check here you are telling them you never have 88+ or a set. Problem is here that our 3 bet pre was such a large chunk of our stack that we have a SPR now of about 1. This is why I like jamming pre more than 3 betting to some amount (I like just calling the most) because we are in this SPR of 1 spot and we have no post flop maneuverability. Here is where your read on UTG comes into play. Would they fold a 99 type hand here if we get it in as I think if we get it in then AK folds. I dont know that based on the post but here I am either just giving up (which is a big waste of chips pre flop imo) or I am going for it with a very small bet flop and jam the rest turn to make it look valuey and make it look like I have big hand grouped with my 3 bet pre. I dont think we can bet flop and then decide to give up.
Turn: As played its a weird bet by villain as its only about 10% of the pot so I would not fold and I would just call as you did assuming the flop was played as is.
River: Is interesting since it trips the board and it means villain has less made
hands. Big hands could play this the way they did and some bluffs could too and they are trying to make it look like a value bet. Its tough on the river facing that bet and that board as I would think 88-QQ bets more on the turn than 2 BBs. AA, KK, AK could play this exact way but how loose is UTG? Do they open A9 or A8 of KJ off of Q10 off UTG? We have to think about that at this point and what they call pre with after our 3 bet. The more hands we can think of that they might open pre and call a 3 bet with than we can call. The less and tighter they are the more we should fold. I think given that we still would have 12 BBs if we called and were wrong gives me enough leeway and call this. Again, that is readless without knowing what they open, how they play, etc. and that stuff really affects your decision here.
