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Message: [QUOTE="Matt Vaughan, post: 2395280, member: 34747"] Oh I see, so being an 80% favorite is an extreme example, yet you use an almost identical scenario: The only reason I used an extreme example was because it mirrored the one you chose yourself. If I'm appealing to extremes, it's only so that I could refute the extreme that you presented yourself. To this: I have to respond because it's so fundamentally wrong. Again, you will get into MANY situations in tournaments where you are presented a marginal spot. What you're ignoring is that being in a much better place at that stage of a tournament gives you a better chance not just to mincash but also to win. Let's say you're 65% chance to double up, and 35% chance to bust. And let's say that when you double up, your expected payout in the tournament doubles. Seems like pretty easy math to me. Again, if utility of the mincash is huge to you then none of this applies, but if you're actually talking about reasonable buyin tournaments then the EV always applies. To suggest otherwise just tells me that you don't understand what EV is, fundamentally. You're still talking about single outcomes. If you're only playing one more tournament for the rest of your life, then sure, your thoughts apply I guess. But if you're planning on playing more, then passing up +EV spots over and over again just means you will make less money on average. If THAT doesn't make sense, no one here can help you. Oh, and remember when you wrote this? Yeah. Ok. You're not exactly taking the counter-thoughts like a champ. And one last thing, with respect to this: Notice how you're refusing to even respond to the actual points being made? That was what I meant. I was neither referencing the forum nor the poker playing population at large. I was noting the fact that you wrote a long-winded set of statements that could have been summed up concisely in a brief discussion of the similarities between chipEV and $EV, thoughts on ICM, and a point on utility for people of differing bankrolls. Usually people who write these types of threads take many well-thought out (but disagreeing) replies - often from forum members who contribute a lot and are experienced in the game - and all they manage to come back with is "No, you're wrong," or self-defensive remarks. Pretty much exactly what you've done here. [/QUOTE]

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