Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="Lheticus, post: 2394928, member: 111392"] I've seen several people state on this forum that in tournaments, they make decisions in accordance with "Expected Value"--playing the odds in such a way that they win more than they lose. While this is, as far as I can see, THE way to win in cash game play, there is a major problem I perceive in doing so in tournament play, and I would like to expand on it. That problem is this: In a tournament, Expected Value [I]has nothing to do with the chips.[/I] In a tournament, you don't [I]get[/I] value from having chips, you get value from finishing in a position in the money, and that means not finishing before most of the field. I figure the questions people should ask in making tournament decisions is not "does the long run favor this play in making chips?" and instead, they should ask themselves "Will I be likely to finish higher/lower in the tournament if I call/raise/fold?" This is why bad beats get a lot of press in tournaments--[I]because they really, REALLY matter.[/I] A single bad beat in a big pot can change the entire course of the tournament for all involved. If you don't account for the possibility you will be a victim of a bad beat and plan accordingly, if you always take the "favorable" odds no matter what the circumstance, there WILL come times when you overreach yourself, become a bad beat victim, and be crippled or eliminated as a result. You can bemoan bad luck all you want in such a case, but the fact of the matter is that even on an 80% chance of victory, all that means is one out of five times, [I]you will still lose.[/I] In committing chips when you have someone beat, but not drawing dead, (as far as you figure), always, ALWAYS ask yourself "can I afford to lose these chips?" when there are still cards to come--because the possibility of you doing so is very, VERY real. Again, exactly none of this thought process is relevant in cash games, because in there, you do get into the long run--but as I've said in another thread, a poker tournament is far too microcosmic to EVER get into the long run--even the World Series Main Event, with 8 full days of live play, doesn't even come close. Since the only thing that exists is the short run, there are myriad things in tournaments to consider that would simply be superfluous in a cash game--and as such, playing pure +EV isn't just not the best strategy--it's [I]folly. [/I]Feel free to share all counter-thoughts, everyone. [/QUOTE]

Verification

Search

Reply to thread

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site

Follow us

Language