Learning Series Quiz: Mystery Bounty Math

[CRStals]

In our Popular Poker Tournament Formats series, Part 3: Mystery Bounty Tournaments we went over the maths figuring out average bounty worth, odds to call based on bounty value, etc. Check out the article, and then put the math to practice with the following scenario! Full, non-copied answers will be worth 10 VIP chips to you (after review).

Day 2 of a Mystery Bounty Tournament Stats

• $100 buy in, split 50/50 prize pool and bounty pool
• 200 players entered
• 30 players will cash
• All players in Day 2 play for bounties: none have been claimed yet
• Starting stack was 10k
• 60 players start Day 2

The Situation

• You have a stack of 50k, blinds are 1k/2k
• You get into a hand with a player in the small blind with a stack of 45k
• You are in the big blind and find pocket jacks.
• 20k pot on the river with a board of 10 - 9 - 9 - 4 - 2 (rainbow, no flush possible).
• Small blind shoves, putting their bounty up for grabs.

Using the info provided in our Mystery Bounty learning thread, answer these questions:

• What is the average bounty worth right now?
• What odds do you have to call this, taking their bounty into account?
• Do you call?
• If you call - and win - do you pull the bounty now, or wait?

 

[Goggelheimer]

So the question is somewhat disturbing and not very precise missing info is effective stack size when pushed from SB, I do not really know how many chips to call.

1. The average bounty is $166.67 ( $10000/60 players)

2. pot odds are increased by 33333 Chips due to the bounty (Bounty $166,67/ $50 = 333.3%, 10000 Chips x 333.3 = 33333 chips)
Or in other words the pot contains 33333 Chips more as dead money due to the average bounty.

3. With an over pair to the board, I would call, due to the very rare info about the betting in the previous streets.
Even if I run into 9x, Tx, 44, or 22 hands.
The move looks strong but without information on previous betting this is GTO (Guess The Outcome)

4. I would pull the bounty directly because the chance to win the big one is there.

I hope the math is correct, if not give me hint via pm.

 

[Suns of Beaches]

- The Average bounty is around 160 dollars

- I have pretty good odds to call, especially for a bounty

- i call for sure there with an overpair to the board and in a blind vs blind situation

- I would pull the bounty now and not wait. There is more than enough wait in poker already and I'm pretty impatient in general 😀

 

[Tero]

I will try to answer this even though the article itself wasn't completely clear, and because of it I'm not sure of this answer.

What is the average bounty worth right now?

Right now it is (200 players x $50)/60 players = $166,7 (if house's cut is not taken into account)

What odds do you have to call this, taking their bounty into account?

There is 20k on the table by river so both of us have put in 10k. I have 40k left and my opponent has 35k left.

Opponent shoves making the pot into 55k and we need to calculate another 5k into the pot from half of his starting chips (bounty value).

So we need to call 35k to win 60k. We need 37% equity to call.

Do you call?

No-one is in the money yet so all we have to gain is our opponent's bounty.
It all boils down to what we know of our opponent. Is he tight, stupid, or something else? He might just be trying to squeeze us with Ax?
Jacks are good enough to call (even though there is a pair on the board).

If you call - and win - do you pull the bounty now, or wait?
I'll probably wait a bit and take my chances. Winning big from 1/60 is just not my luck.

 

[ZenonBR]

Come on, it looks like we have incomplete information here, did the small blind villain just fill the pot? Or did he come in from Raise? If he entered with a Raise, how many x did this increase amount to? Another issue is generally that the small range is more biased towards marginal hands, as it is in position over the BB it can pressure the big with a Q9 for example, but to resolve this solution, the most important thing here is to first know how this action arrived up to you, did the villain raise or just fill the pot? If he got a raise, what was the value of that raise? 2x, 3x, 5x the amount of the big blind? Post flop, does he raise aggressively? Some villains when they trip tend to trap (my case) so if he checked it could be the case, but also not, if his only action on the river was ALL IN without having raised at any point, the call is right, if he has the 9 which is unlikely, just congratulations to him, and life goes on, now with JJ top of the range on the flop you fold, you are playing wrong in the long term, in the short term he may even have the set, but in the majority Sometimes your JJ on this board will come out victorious, so yes, calling is the correct action to do on this board, which will be favorable most of the time, just don't ask me to do calculations I'm horrible at it.

 

[Tammy]

Come on, it looks like we have incomplete information here, did the small blind villain just fill the pot? Or did he come in from Raise? If he entered with a Raise, how many x did this increase amount to? Another issue is generally that the small range is more biased towards marginal hands, as it is in position over the BB it can pressure the big with a Q9 for example, but to resolve this solution, the most important thing here is to first know how this action arrived up to you, did the villain raise or just fill the pot? If he got a raise, what was the value of that raise? 2x, 3x, 5x the amount of the big blind? Post flop, does he raise aggressively? Some villains when they trip tend to trap (my case) so if he checked it could be the case, but also not, if his only action on the river was ALL IN without having raised at any point, the call is right, if he has the 9 which is unlikely, just congratulations to him, and life goes on, now with JJ top of the range on the flop you fold, you are playing wrong in the long term, in the short term he may even have the set, but in the majority Sometimes your JJ on this board will come out victorious, so yes, calling is the correct action to do on this board, which will be favorable most of the time, just don't ask me to do calculations I'm horrible at it.

The idea is that you should read the article linked in the first post to determine your answer. It's not so much about the play of the cards, but rather determining your play based on the values of the bounties and other factors and information on whether this call is profitable to you in the long run or not.