Impressive variance

E

Ekuul

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Playing on Paddy power. Daily freeroll 1092888158

New player joins about 45 minutes in. Palicka1985. starts with 5000 chips

Q8u fullhouse -> double
Fold
TT wins 6792
Fold
Fold
JJ lost
AA lost - down to 1500 chips
AA win - wins 6804
A4s win - 19750
A8u win - wins 20910 (total 35000 chips)
K9s win - wins 18546 (total 46000 chips)

In 5 hands goes from 1500 to 46000 chips.
 
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fundiver199

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If he entered with a short stack, such swings are pretty common.
 
dzsire

dzsire

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If you asked him, he would say: knowledge, my friend. :)
If you ask me, I'd say it's a typical freeroll situation. I don't know this site, but it can happen in any room.
Poker is not about the truth. Even though you've been sitting there since the beginning, when one of these comes, you have to accept this, you can't do much else.
 
eetenor

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Ekuul said:
Playing on Paddy power. Daily freeroll 1092888158

New player joins about 45 minutes in. Palicka1985. starts with 5000 chips

Q8u fullhouse -> double
Fold
TT wins 6792
Fold
Fold
JJ lost
AA lost - down to 1500 chips
AA win - wins 6804
A4s win - 19750
A8u win - wins 20910 (total 35000 chips)
K9s win - wins 18546 (total 46000 chips)

In 5 hands goes from 1500 to 46000 chips.
Click to expand...
If you run a sim for MTT you will see players (20%) have incredible ROI over many many MTT-1k to 6k or more --it is all just card distribution
 
E

Ekuul

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Well, I like to think of a coin flip when putting such variance into context.

If you flip a coin it's 50-50 but what about say a run of coin flips.

What ever the last coin flip was, the current coin flip will either end the run or continue it. So lets take 128 coin flips.

50% end the run, but 50% continue the run, and so on, 50% of the continued would continue again, and so forth.

So 128 rolls, for example:

A series of :
1 would happen 32 times
2, 16
3, 8,
4, 4,
5, 2,
6, 1
7, 0.5

So, as counter intuitive as it seems, 128 flips, and a sequence of 6 heads (or tails) is to be EXPECTED. If a roulette wheel plays 1440 games a day, you'd expect a sequence of 10 red or black that day.

A pocket pair is 1 in 17 though. 4 pocket pairs in 6 hands is still impressive although it feels a lot more frequent than I feel I should see it.

Royal flush, I'm into double figures.
 
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