Hyper Turbo Heads Up Variance

[2-7MakesMeRaise]

Hey everyone, first post this year but I put £10 on pokerstars last week and have started really enjoying the game again . Anyway my question is, how many hyper turbo heads up games would you need to play to get a realistic win/lose rate. I know from what I have read that variance is a massive factor in poker but would I be right in thinking that there is even more variance in a heads up game with only 500 chips and blinds that go up so quick. I'm sticking to these games for a while to try and beat them but I don't want to think that I am better/worse than I am when variance could be playing a major role.

Thanks in advance for the replies and I will post some results when I have downloaded PT

 

[RamdeeBen]

Yeah varience in these games is quite high.

I play them and swings can be high, although at the micros, the players are so awful that I've not suffered any huge swings yet. I think my biggest is like 20 buy-ins downswings at the $7.00 level twice over a course of 2500 games.

Winrates are generally quite small and you do need a decent sample size to determine a true win rate but after 2500 games, I believe I'm probably around a 5% winner (currently at around 8%) but I'd expect a a decrease in that. With decent volume though, you can expect decent return. Ive been playing around 3weeks now and I'm up over $1k just from a mixture of micro stakes, primarly $7 games.

 

[alexb87]

I find hyper turbos tend 2 be alot of luck.. if your not given the cards quick then your out

 

[RamdeeBen]

I find hyper turbos tend 2 be alot of luck.. if your not given the cards quick then your out

That's the mentality that makes the games very profitable

People see them as just luck and all gamble so play that way. Anyone with a strategy can make a lot of money from them.

 

[Aleksei]

That's the mentality that makes the games very profitable

People see them as just luck and all gamble so play that way. Anyone with a strategy can make a lot of money from them.

Your room for exploiting your skill edge is still super tiny though... unless you are absolutely CRUSHING villain (which it sounds like in this format you are), your local winrate will still be close to what the cards say they should be -- it's over time that you build a significant lead, by winning more and losing less than Villain.

 

[inflnlte]

I think it would take a long time before you can see any results. I just dont see how someone can make a huge profit over like 10,000 games.

 

[RamdeeBen]

Your room for exploiting your skill edge is still super tiny though... unless you are absolutely CRUSHING villain (which it sounds like in this format you are), your local winrate will still be close to what the cards say they should be -- it's over time that you build a significant lead, by winning more and losing less than Villain.

You would be surprised at how much a of an edge you can get in these formats vs fish. All hypers comes down to is hand ranges and at the micros this is very easy to assign to villian. So if you can hammer out a game every 3-4minutes..that tiny edge sure does add up!

I think it would take a long time before you can see any results. I just dont see how someone can make a huge profit over like 10,000 games.

I guess it's about defining what you think are good results..

I'm playing only a $7.00-$15.00(occasional) level and have hammered out 2000 games or so over a 3week period with just over $1k in profits and my winrate is exactly huge either. Between 5-8% ROI%.


If you look at sharkscope leader boards for this year; you will see that all top spots are taken by HU hyper turob players. The top 1st + 2nd places have over $500K in just 4months from playing hypers this year and are very likely to exceed $1milion in profits for the year just from games alone and most only have a 2% ROI%.

Of course these are high stake games; but as you can see...a tiny edge + good volume can produce great results in these formats.

 

[Aleksei]

Wow, that's pretty impressive.

What's your hourly if you don't mind me asking?

 

[RamdeeBen]

er..I've no idea tbh - don't even have that option in my poker tracker I don't think!

 

[needaGF]

That's the mentality that makes the games very profitable

People see them as just luck and all gamble so play that way. Anyone with a strategy can make a lot of money from them.

Actually I don't quite understand your point. Now that it is a game about luck, how do you play with a strategy?

 

[Aleksei]

er..I've no idea tbh - don't even have that option in my poker tracker I don't think!

I guess you can estimate how many games you play an hour and then multiply that by your winrate.

 

[TheMachineCheck]

@ramdeebam, do you have skype? Then we can discuss some strategy about the Heads-Up Hyper Sit and Go's. I'm playing them at this moment also, at the $3.50s level.

 

[Aleksei]

@ramdeebam, do you have skype? Then we can discuss some strategy about the Heads-Up Hyper Sit and Go's. I'm playing them at this moment also, at the $3.50s level.

I'd love to chat also. I don't play SNGs at present, but I play a ton of HU cash (for play money with friends mostly atm as I'm broke ) and I might pick up the super turbos when I regain my bankroll.

 

[TheMachineCheck]

I'm quitted already with the Hyper HU Turbo's. I'm now playing the 9STT $1.50s, in combination with steps. Today i bought a Step A, and it is now already a Step D.