Is a positive ROI possible with turbo games??

[Ssssssnakes]

I just finished todays weekly German freerole, it started almost an hour ago. Obviously, I ended up where I always end up when playing a random SNG/MMT with 5 minute blinds.

To me, these fast blind increases are just gambling. There's no chance. I played 12 hands in total and of those I went allin 6 times! That's just not fun, it's pure gambling!

Why is everyone jumping at these turbo games? I really don't understand it. Instead of playing an MMT with like 100 all-ins before you reach the final table, you probably have better chances going to the roulette table.

Seriously, even if you attribute a 90% chance of winning every all-in, in the freeroll with my six all-ins my chances of surviving the last one would have been a mere 50% - and in one case I had AA and lost with them.

Granted, I had to adjust in the fist 10 or so minutes to the turbo character of the game and made a couple of mistakes. But seriously, how do you intend to get to a positive ROI when things turn into a series of coinflips after like 15 minutes - which even the case with 9 player SNGs.

With normal speed on single table SNGs, the all-in coinflipping usually only starts after 45-60 minutes depending on how many players are left.

Hence, you have enough time to make the right decision an therefore enough chips to avoid most of the carnage.


tlr; Do you have a positive ROI with turbo/hyper SNGs/MMts? Do you know anyone who has?

 

[PeLLeTTi]

There are certainly ways to be profitable in turbo tournaments, but the sampling to break the variance tends to be much higher. I have a friend who lives on a $5 spin and go at pokerstars and he makes his $1,000 a month there and is super happy about it. But the variance is very high and any player who ventures into this format will feel it, just adapt.

 

[ScooperNova]

I believe being profitable in turbo format is possible. Variance will of course increase. The player will have to play more aggressively in most spots and accept lower edges as acceptable all ins. However, the faster the speed of the blinds, the less skill involved is an immutable fact.

 

[alien666dj]

A positive ROI in turbo and hyper turbo is possible, but it requires playing a large number of tournaments, knowing the push-fold strategy and patience.

 

[cardcounter]

Of course it is possible. But you need a large samplesize and you have to study.

 

[Ssssssnakes]

A positive ROI in turbo and hyper turbo is possible, but it requires playing a large number of tournaments, knowing the push-fold strategy and patience.

How many percentage of hands do you have to play in a turbo game? With regular blinds my average is some 25% and I already hate it towards the end when the blinds turn the stacks into average piles. You have to push-fold yourself to the payout the same way.

I mean, there are skills involved which turn the tide at the end of a game between 3-4 players often enough. But imagine that with 300-400 players and this after like the first 30 minutes (after the end of the rebuy phase...)?

If you have a 50% chance to win a 1 table SNG which take roughly 40 minutes, then a 6 hour long MMT is equal to 0.4^9 which is 1:512 .


Bottom line: The turbo math just don't work imo. The variance is just too big...

 

[mervin88]

I just finished todays weekly German freerole, it started almost an hour ago. Obviously, I ended up where I always end up when playing a random SNG/MMT with 5 minute blinds.

To me, these fast blind increases are just gambling. There's no chance. I played 12 hands in total and of those I went allin 6 times! That's just not fun, it's pure gambling!

Why is everyone jumping at these turbo games? I really don't understand it. Instead of playing an MMT with like 100 all-ins before you reach the final table, you probably have better chances going to the roulette table.

Seriously, even if you attribute a 90% chance of winning every all-in, in the freeroll with my six all-ins my chances of surviving the last one would have been a mere 50% - and in one case I had AA and lost with them.

Granted, I had to adjust in the fist 10 or so minutes to the turbo character of the game and made a couple of mistakes. But seriously, how do you intend to get to a positive ROI when things turn into a series of coinflips after like 15 minutes - which even the case with 9 player SNGs.

With normal speed on single table SNGs, the all-in coinflipping usually only starts after 45-60 minutes depending on how many players are left.

Hence, you have enough time to make the right decision an therefore enough chips to avoid most of the carnage.


tlr; Do you have a positive ROI with turbo/hyper SNGs/MMts? Do you know anyone who has?

if it's a freeroll i def want turbo structure

if there's a buy in involved i prefer normal structure to play more post flop, you are right

 

[Ssssssnakes]

if it's a freeroll i def want turbo structure

That's a good point. Maybe I should approach the freerolls more from the standpoint of a casino and just gamble ahead till it's over.

 

[CryptoBlood]

If I play turbo tourmanents I play in same time on many sites turbo poker tourmaents freerolls in same time and in all of those I bet only on good hands and in 1 at least I must win at least once per week,

 

[fundiver199]

This is actually a really good point and question, although it should be noted, that it makes no sense to talk about ROI in freerolls, since there is no price to enter. So per definition everyone have an infinite ROI in freerolls, once they have cashed in at least one.

But when we are talking about paid turbo games, its a different question, which I am actually dealing with right now as part of my 100-10.000$ challenge on PokerStars. And my take on it is, that its actually pretty difficult to have a positive ROI or at least a significantly positive ROI in turbo SnGs on PokerStars. This has been my experience during the challenge, but also life time playing on PokerStars.

Now when I say turbo SnGs, I am not talking about "on demand" bounty builders, because they have a slower blind structure similar to turbo tournaments on Stars, and in fact they are just tournaments the only difference being a 50BB starting stack and no fixed starting time. And in turbo tournaments I do have a positive ROI both in the challenge and also and more importantly livetime playing on Stars.

The turbo SnGs are challenging though, because the blinds go up even faster than in turbo tournaments. Yes its still every 5 minutes, but the spacing between blind levels is larger making the structure effective even faster. The most extreme example is 18-180 man "on demand" games, where blinds jump directly from 50/25 to 100/50 after just 15 minutes of play. A structure, which was carried over from the old 90 and 180 man SnGs, when these were removed from the lobby.

But even in the other turbo games, the structure is still very fast, and you often end up in push-fold situations rather quickly, where at least the regular opponents, of which there are many, just dont make massive mistakes, you can profit from. I actually think, the turbo 9-mans are a bit better than the 18-mans and 18-45 mans though. And the reason for that is, that in MTTs tables are obviously merged, when people bust, and this mean, that as blinds go up and stacks get short, you are still playing with a lot of people on the table. And this tend to bring down the average VPIP and give people less chances to bust or dubble.

Just as an example I yesterday played a 9-man, a 9-man KO, a Fifty/50 and an 18-man at the same time. They started up within 2 minutes or so from each other. The Fifty/50 was finished first, as expected, and next I busted from the 9-man. I ended up winning the 9-man KO, but quite tellingly at the point, when we were down to heads-up play in that one, 9 people were still left in the 18-man with obviously very short average stacks. I ended up making it to the bubble, where I then busted with a 4-5BB stack or so. And yeah... I mean... how are you going to find big edges with 4-5BB?

Obviously this was a bit extreme and partly because, a lot of people had busted from the 9-man KO very fast. But as a general tendency this is, how these games play, and in both the turbo 18-mans and 18-45 man "on demand" games, stacks are often incredibly short, once you get to the final table and the bubble. So yes I do in fact think, its pretty difficult to have a significantly positive ROI long term in these games. And since the "on demand" games also cap out at 5$, if you want to specialise, its probably a better idea to pick the 9-mans. These can also be played with regular speed up to I think 25$, although for a higher rake.

 

[Maikychan]

It's perfect possible, but you'll put some volume in your grind. Good luck.

 

[Stasey]

Yes. it is possible. But you should have perfect shove/fold and good samplesize.

 

[Ssssssnakes]

But even in the other turbo games, the structure is still very fast, and you often end up in push-fold situations rather quickly, where at least the regular opponents, of which there are many, just dont make massive mistakes, you can profit from. I actually think, the turbo 9-mans are a bit better than the 18-mans and 18-45 mans though. And the reason for that is, that in MTTs tables are obviously merged, when people bust, and this mean, that as blinds go up and stacks get short, you are still playing with a lot of people on the table. And this tend to bring down the average VPIP and give people less chances to bust or dubble.

Just as an example I yesterday played a 9-man, a 9-man KO, a Fifty/50 and an 18-man at the same time. They started up within 2 minutes or so from each other. The Fifty/50 was finished first, as expected, and next I busted from the 9-man. I ended up winning the 9-man KO, but quite tellingly at the point, when we were down to heads-up play in that one, 9 people were still left in the 18-man with obviously very short average stacks. I ended up making it to the bubble, where I then busted with a 4-5BB stack or so. And yeah... I mean... how are you going to find big edges with 4-5BB?

Yes, this is exactly what I meant, just explained much better than I ever could. Thanks a lot!

Here's the surprising news: Yesterday, I decided to give 2$ one table turbo SNGs another try. After a couple of losses, I actually found the recipe. All you have to do is sit out the first 10-15 minutes to make sure stealing blinds is worth it and then play as if it was a heads-up situation no matter how many players are left. My ROI was staggering, you can look it up on the stats sites...

Still though, I'm a hesitant to try it on bigger SNGs/MMTs as the variance could snap here as you and the others describe it. It's a pity that they don't offer regular 18/45/180 SNGs with higher buy-in anymore on Pokerstars. I used to like those and I think that at least the 2$ turbo SNGs with 18/45 players might work as well if you play using my recipe.

Question is: Are there other rooms than Pokerstars that are more suitable for mid-sized small cap turbo SNGs?

 

[pandafreeroll]

The blind schedule doesn't matter if you jam 50%, if you play like a gambling maniac you will lose more than at a roulette wheel anyway. Even putting your chips in the pot voluntarily more than 35% of hands, you are playing very loose ranges that will have you end up nowhere except in heads up, maybe. The freerolls are freerolls, so go right ahead, if you cash out even once your ROI is technically infinite. But don't complain about the blinds when no one made you shove those 6/12 hands...

 

[fundiver199]

Here's the surprising news: Yesterday, I decided to give 2$ one table turbo SNGs another try. After a couple of losses, I actually found the recipe. All you have to do is sit out the first 10-15 minutes to make sure stealing blinds is worth it and then play as if it was a heads-up situation no matter how many players are left. My ROI was staggering, you can look it up on the stats sites...

Over a single session there will obviously be a lot of variance, so dont get carried away to much by this success. But with that being said after trying all the different 2$ turbo SnGs for my challenge, I have also come to the conclusions, that 9-mans and in particular 9-man KO games tend to be the softest on average. So I might also focus more on them for my challange going forward from here.

It's a pity that they don't offer regular 18/45/180 SNGs with higher buy-in anymore on Pokerstars.

It is indeed a shame, and it has made bankroll building in the micros a lot more difficult, unless you want to go the cash game route of course. In fairness I understand, why they removed these games, since they were being played more and more seldomly. But I am sure, PokerStars also dont mind, if everyone play turbos, and very few end up winning, so that all money deposited ends up as rake

Question is: Are there other rooms than Pokerstars that are more suitable for mid-sized small cap turbo SNGs?

ACR has lower rake for single table 5$ games and below but also much less action. They actually have a wider variety of "on demand" games than PokerStars, and the structure is slightly slower, but its still all turbos and still very fast, so not all that different at the end of the day.

 

[Luvepoker]

I played 12 hands in total and of those I went allin 6 times! That's just not fun, it's pure gambling!

And this is the problem. I play Turbo tournaments all the time and do well in them. Yes there are more all ins and earlier but we do not want to just gamble. I play my normal game. If someone want to play with stacks I will fold my just that not worth playing and call if it is. While I cant play on stars are the chip stack so low you need to go all in 6 of 12 hands dealt? Is it a turbo or hyper turbo? If you play a solid game and take calculated risk you can do well in these games.

 

[Kenzie 96]

So we are talking about free rolls, which mostly means large tourneys with small payouts & you think the setup should be changed to make them take longer to complete, really?

 

[Ssssssnakes]

So we are talking about free rolls, which mostly means large tourneys with small payouts & you think the setup should be changed to make them take longer to complete, really?

No, we are talking about turbo games in general. The freeroll was just my practical example.

 

[Ssssssnakes]

The blind schedule doesn't matter if you jam 50%, if you play like a gambling maniac you will lose more than at a roulette wheel anyway. Even putting your chips in the pot voluntarily more than 35% of hands, you are playing very loose ranges that will have you end up nowhere .

So far for me personally, roughly 33% of all hands played in a turbo SNG turned out to be the most successful range. What's the percentage that you consider optimal when it comes to turbo SNGs?

I have also come to the conclusions, that 9-mans and in particular 9-man KO games tend to be the softest on average.

dito. I wonder how things look on tables with a medium/high buy-in. If the low ranges are an indicator, there mus be a lot of gamblers around.

ACR has lower rake for single table 5$ games and below but also much less action. They actually have a wider variety of "on demand" games than PokerStars, and the structure is slightly slower, but its still all turbos and still very fast, so not all that different at the end of the day.

partypoker has interessting game offers too. But there's even less players around to compete against.

I play my normal game. If someone want to play with stacks I will fold my just that not worth playing and call if it is.

What if 4 or 5 players do that all the time? You never get to the point where you can really play a hand. I've had games where I saw not even one flop until the point where it made sense to go all-in preflop to steal the blinds+ante.

This reduction turns the idea of poker as a game of skill inside out. Some players like you still play normally, but then again, as soon as you are the only one who plays lose and aggressive, it becomes the dominant strategy to push the table no matter what.

Hence: Either you deal with beginners or turbo SNGs are predetermined to turn into roulette with cards.

While I cant play on stars are the chip stack so low you need to go all in 6 of 12 hands dealt? Is it a turbo or hyper turbo? If you play a solid game and take calculated risk you can do well in these games.

Turbo with 5 minutes blinds.

The problem is that with the blinds rising (too) fast, being extremely aggressive like in a heads up becomes the dominant strategy. At the same moment, there's an ante from the beginning, which means that this strategy shift occurs the faster, the more players are still sitting on the table.

After 10 minutes into the game, the blinds go up to 25/50 with 6 as ante. This means that before any action has taken place, there's 25+50+9*6 = 131 chips in the pot. That is almost 9% of an average stack!

After 10 minutes into the game, the blinds go up to 40/80 with 10 as ante. This means that before any action has taken place, there's 40+80+9*10 = 210 chips in the pot. That is more than 14% of an average stack!

As a consequence, stealing blinds becomes dominant in almost every position! Now imagine there was some prior action with some players having lost 2/3 of their stack. It means that with only one blind steal, they can increase their stack by 50%! Who would not try that even with a half-good hand in a three-quarter-good position?

Bottom line: After some 15 minutes, every turbo SNG decends into preflop all-in madness. The only thing preventing that from happening is players like you who don't see that shift and keep playing tight. You might be surviving, but as soon as there's more than 3 aggressive players on the table you will either be out in under 20 minutes or not see a single flop until you're all-in, because you ran out of chips.

If you need an example, check out this game: 3363659059. It's my best so far with a perfect run. Admittedly, I did have good hands, but I've produced a dozen or so more similar results since adapting my strategy accordingly.

In my opinion, the only way to have any chance of long-term success with turbo SNGs is to play like in a heads-up after around 8-12 minutes into the game (provided it's 9 player games with most of them not good in what they're doing). Everything else will loose you money and even more nerves.


Btw, I just tried hyper turbo, here's the equation for that: 2 minute blinds + 500 chips * 9 players = 3 hands tops for each player until the final all-in comes. Hyper turbo is ridiculous from the get-go. Still, I could imagine that you might get out something as long as you have enough players on the table who play tight.

 

[Daniel72]

Turbo games are better for the weaker players, good players can have better ROI in longer blind games. But even turbo games are beatable, as many professionals like boku87 and bfizz11 proved. The edge is less, but volume is the key. And decent play of course.

 

[rock0001]

yes they are absolutely beatable but your ROI will be most likely lower than regular tournaments because the variance will be higher and also luck plays a bigger role than regular and slow tournaments.

 

[fundiver199]

But even turbo games are beatable, as many professionals like boku87 and bfizz11 proved. The edge is less, but volume is the key. And decent play of course.

But are those guys playing turbo MTTs or turbo SnGs, and are they playing on Stars? As I said already the name "turbo" is not enough to tell, how fast the structure really is. And if the games are beatable will then obviously also depend on the rake, where for instance the 12% rake in a 2$ 18-man SnG might actually in theory be to much for even the best players to overcome, given how fast the structure is. Or even if its beatable, is it worth our time, if a realistic ROI is only 1-3%? This is at least something, people need to consider.

 

[nuttea]

I just finished todays weekly German freerole, it started almost an hour ago. Obviously, I ended up where I always end up when playing a random SNG/MMT with 5 minute blinds.

To me, these fast blind increases are just gambling. There's no chance. I played 12 hands in total and of those I went allin 6 times! That's just not fun, it's pure gambling!

Why is everyone jumping at these turbo games? I really don't understand it. Instead of playing an MMT with like 100 all-ins before you reach the final table, you probably have better chances going to the roulette table.

Seriously, even if you attribute a 90% chance of winning every all-in, in the freeroll with my six all-ins my chances of surviving the last one would have been a mere 50% - and in one case I had AA and lost with them.

Granted, I had to adjust in the fist 10 or so minutes to the turbo character of the game and made a couple of mistakes. But seriously, how do you intend to get to a positive ROI when things turn into a series of coinflips after like 15 minutes - which even the case with 9 player SNGs.

With normal speed on single table SNGs, the all-in coinflipping usually only starts after 45-60 minutes depending on how many players are left.

Hence, you have enough time to make the right decision an therefore enough chips to avoid most of the carnage.


tlr; Do you have a positive ROI with turbo/hyper SNGs/MMts? Do you know anyone who has?

Three percent is considered a very respectable result, and at the highest limits, the ROi of top players often does not exceed one percent. In single-table turbo tournaments, you can have about 5-6 percent ROI, and in multi-table tournaments, you can have about 10 percent. But in non-turbo MTT tournaments, you can have more than 20 percent!

 

[Ssssssnakes]

Three percent is considered a very respectable result, and at the highest limits, the ROi of top players often does not exceed one percent. In single-table turbo tournaments, you can have about 5-6 percent ROI, and in multi-table tournaments, you can have about 10 percent. But in non-turbo MTT tournaments, you can have more than 20 percent!

How many SNGs/hands played do you think are enough to create a stable ROI assessment?

So far, I mainly focused on 2$ single table SNGs, regular and turbo+KO. With both I played 40 games with 3000+/1000+ hands. So far my ROI is more than ten times too high and it could be even higher if I focused a little more.

Besides my utter lack of focus, the only other thing keeping me away from a perfect record are a handful of other players who play similar to me (=treat turbo like a heads up).

Still, I can hardly believe that it is possible, to reach a positive ROI with turbo MMTs. I tried a few in the buy-in range of 1-10$ and I wasn't even that bad. At the end, I only got out little, because after 20 minutes in every tournament, every single hand ended with an all-in for the remaining 3 hours.

In contrast to that, single table games at least get a reset every 30-40 minutes.

tldr; Do you know any players who play turbo MMTs and have a positive ROI?

 

[fundiver199]

How many SNGs/hands played do you think are enough to create a stable ROI assessment?

There is no magic number, where now you suddenly know your exact ROI. But realistically we are talking about a sample size of more than 1.000 SnGs, before we at least get close. After 40 9-man SnGs the standard deviation on ROI is 25%. And even after 500 the standard deviation on ROI is still 7%, which mean, that a marginal winning player could easily be losing over 500 games and vice versa.

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