Raised on turn... your move

[Bombjack]

Down to 7 players in a $10+1 S+G. Don't have much of a read on my opponent (at least, I can't remember...). What would you do here?


Hand 782735544, Started at 07/30/2006 11:04 PM
Table 'Calgary': 20-20 No Limit HE (TournamentChips)
Seat 0: natchrhub (3,695 in chips) (on the button)
Seat 1: XcottomatteX (1,305 in chips)
Seat 2: Enigma1994 (1,830 in chips)
Seat 5: Periwinkle (1,690 in chips)
Seat 6: rookies25 (4,320 in chips)
Seat 7: bob scone (615 in chips)
Seat 9: Bombjack_x (1,545 in chips)
*** Blind Bet Round *** :
Dealt to Bombjack_x: Ad
Dealt to Bombjack_x: 7d
XcottomatteX : Post Blind (25)
Enigma1994 : Post Blind (50)
*** Pre-Flop *** :
Periwinkle : Call (50)
rookies25 : Fold
bob scone : Fold
Bombjack_x : Call (50)
natchrhub : Fold
XcottomatteX : Fold
Enigma1994 : Check
*** Flop *** : 6s Ah 8d
Enigma1994 : Check
Periwinkle : Check
Bombjack_x : Bet (100)
Enigma1994 : Fold
Periwinkle : Call (100)
*** Turn *** : [ 6s Ah 8d ] 4d
Periwinkle : Check
Bombjack_x : Bet (200)
Periwinkle : Raise (500)
Bombjack_x : ???????????????

 

[t1riel]

This guy could have anything since he limped in. Two pair is likely. A set is what you should really be fearful of. I would call, you have outs to get the best hand. You already have 200 invested so another 300 for the river makes it a call to me.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Fold > Raise (if UTG limp-folds a lot, though folding is still far better) > Call preflop. With only one limper and a shortish stack you don't want to be limping with soooted Ax.

As played, I probably push the turn after his raise - I'm unsure how much fold equity you have considering it's a $10, but if behind we have outs, and villain's range is quite large here anyway.

 

[Stick66]

Bombjack_x : Bet (200)
Periwinkle : Raise (500)

(I assume this means he raised "to" 500, so 300 more to you.)

Call the turn raise. You have 12 outs/3-1 odds with a nut flush draw & 2pr draw to the 7 (another Ace might not help since he might have one). Your pot odds are 3.58-1 (300/1075). Your top pair helps your implied odds, but your middling kicker hurts them.

The fact that he limped UTG means he most likely doesn't have AT or better, unless you read him as weak tight. I'd say the only things you fear here are 2 pair or a slowplayed set. He could be semi-bluffing at the flush like you. This pot is too large and you are too commited to fold over a semi-borderline call. A non-flush river will be a different story, depending on pot odds. (I wish your read on him was better.)

EDIT: I agree with DM above. A fold or raise pre-flop might have prevented this mess.

 

[Welly]

It's a call, but not much in it.

Lets give him the benefit and put him on 66,88,44,A6,A8,A4,57s

On average you are 28.6% to win against these hands
You're 27.9% in chips to call

If we chuck him one more (non-defined) hand for a bluff, then this obviously further improves it, but essentially not much in it.

Welly

 

[F Paulsson]

... Bomjack_x : Call (300)

A fold is out of the question. You have 9 outs to the nut flush, three more to the inside straight, and another three to aces up. The three for the two pair may be tainted, but the straight and the flush outs most certainly are not. Here, I'm even discarding the possibility that you're actually ahead, which you may be. Not likely, but it's possible.

Once at the river, I'd play it this way:

Edit: Crap, I misread our position. Nm!

Edit2: Now, with correct position:

If you hit any of your obvious draws (flush, straight, two pair), your job is to get as much money in as possible on the river. You will be beat some portion of the time with the two pair hand, but you'll be good more than 50% of the time (60%, actually, with the range given by Welly, except that I included 86)

If the board pairs: You may just have counterfeited a hand like 8-6. If he pushes, strongly considering folding. If he bets small, call. If he bets medium? No idea; read dependent.
If you do not improve whatsoever: Fold the river. Your one pair, crappy kicker is not likely to be good in the face of a hand who fires again on the river. If he's bluffing, he did it well.

 

[Stick66]

Oh man! I missed seeing the gutshot. An even better call, then. If you don't hit, the river will still be tricky.

 

[Bombjack]

Thanks for the replies. I tried to look up Villain's stats on PokerTracker for a better read, but unfortunately found it doesn't support PokerRoom Sit and Goes. It was also only the 17th hand of the game, and I had no reason to think he was a maniac or particularly aggressive.

Wasn't sure that A7s was really worth a raise pre-flop, given the size of the blinds and my stack size. I might have won the blinds and the limp but could get into trouble if Villain calls. But it's not a bad hand to call with 1 limper, and I had position.

I was pretty sure I was beat when he raised - I put him on 2 pair with Ax. My bet was more of a semi-bluff on the strength of the flush draw.

I did call. I'll post the results tomorrow. Or do you want them now?

 

[ChuckTs]

Now now now!
I don't think there's much else to discuss...I think it's a pretty clear call.
Straight or flush will give you the nuts or close to it, and a two pair or set is probably worth half it's outs since they're partially teinted.
He's giving you odds based on those outs, and as Fredrik noted, you might well be ahead already! (though of course I'm not ruling out a set or two pair)

 

[Bombjack]

Ok here it is (I spoil you guys!):

*** Turn *** : [ 6s Ah 8d ] 4d
Periwinkle : Check
Bombjack_x : Bet (200)
Periwinkle : Raise (500)
Bombjack_x : Call (300)
*** River *** : [ 6s Ah 8d 4d ] 5h
Periwinkle : Bet (500)
Bombjack_x : Raise (895)
Bombjack_x : All In (895)
Periwinkle : Call (395)
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 3,165 | Rake: 0
Board: [ 6s Ah 8d 4d 5h 6s Ah 8d 4d 5h ]
natchrhub lost 0
XcottomatteX lost 25
Enigma1994 lost 50
Periwinkle lost 1,545 Shows [ 8s 8h ] (three eights)
rookies25 lost 0
bob scone lost 0
Bombjack_x bet 1,545, collected 3,165, net 1,620 Shows [ Ad 7d ] (a straight, eight high)

After I missed the flush and he bet, I was about fold when I realised... hang on, 4, 5, 6... 7... 8... count again, that's five in a row right?

The number of times I've been all-in with a four-straight is immense.

Yes he was getting cute with a set. He wasn't too pleased about the result and the "lucky" allegations started flying, so I had to remind him that holding top pair, nut flush and straight draws was a pretty good hand. If he'd been all-in on the turn, or raised on the flop, I might have had a bit more sympathy .

 

[twizzybop]

His fault for not pushing harder on the flop with a set.. never make a re-raise minimal or close to minimal.. while holding a set. Yet you gave yourself 2:1 pot odds on your all in bet on a 28% to win.. hence why you were called lucky cause you were behind on the 2:1 bet.

 

[Bombjack]

I only went all-in after I made my straight, and I figured he wasn't holding 9-7!

 

[joosebuck]

check call down top pair shitty kicker if you must play A7..