Laying down XX for the bubble

[CRUDEFINDER]

There are 14 players left, 13 get $320 tickets to a sattellite.
I've been folding Uber premium hands trying to make the cut.
I'm in the small blind and it's folded around to me and I wake up w/AA!!!!

I am in NO way the Short stack.......
The BB, who is the chipleader, and has a gazillion chips calls and shows....2 3 os
Guess What? Is this (Gulp) a case to actually lay down AA...OMG!

I lay this down and am almost gauranteed a ticket!

pokerstars Game #12270450657: Tournament #62232828, $15.00+$1.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (1500/3000) - 2007/09/25 - 21:00:30 (ET)
Table '62232828 1' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: astonwilli (31734 in chips)
Seat 2: tiburonbig (4141 in chips)
Seat 5: CRUDEFINDER (5888 in chips)
Seat 6: bikocruz (100783 in chips)
astonwilli: posts the ante 300
tiburonbig: posts the ante 300
CRUDEFINDER: posts the ante 300
bikocruz: posts the ante 300
CRUDEFINDER: posts small blind 1500
bikocruz: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CRUDEFINDER [Ad Ah]
astonwilli: folds
tiburonbig: folds
CRUDEFINDER: raises 2588 to 5588 and is all-in
bikocruz: calls 2588
*** FLOP *** [9s 6d Tc]
*** TURN *** [9s 6d Tc] 4♥
*** RIVER *** [9s 6d Tc 4h] 5♠
*** SHOW DOWN ***
CRUDEFINDER: shows [Ad Ah] (a pair of Aces)
bikocruz: shows [2d 3h] (a straight, Deuce to Six)
bikocruz collected 12376 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 12376 | Rake 0
Board [9s 6d Tc 4h 5s]
Seat 1: astonwilli folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: tiburonbig (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: CRUDEFINDER (small blind) showed [Ad Ah] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 6: bikocruz (big blind) showed [2d 3h] and won (12376) with a straight, Deuce to Six

 

[vanquish]

Yeah lay it down if 13 get in out of 14 and you're in no way shortstack...

 

[aliengenius]

In "no way" the short stack? There is only one other player in the entire tournament shorter than you, and he is at your table, and you have less than two big blinds!! I'd say the qualifies as a "short stack".

That being said, you will have the button, and the shorter stack must go through the blinds before you. But still, tough to fold AA, when the vast majority of the time you will double up past several people at all tables, and guarantee your seat.

 

[ChuckTs]

I think this completely depends on what the stacks at the other tables look like; if there are several similarly or lower-stacked, then I'll make the laydown, but if we're among the bottom 2 or 3 I think we have to shove.

There's just too big of a chance that the other short stacks will wimp out and fold until you're blinded out, or that they'll survive all ins, leaving you as the <1BB short stack (and what will most probably be the bubble boy).

Even if this were the last table and it was 3 seats w/ 4 left I think we would have to shove. We just can't leave ourselves with a <1BB stack if there's that much of a chance that another short stack will slip into the money by folding.

 

[OzExorcist]

Pot before any action = 5700. You have an M of just over 1, and given you're four-handed, an effective M of about 0.4. And that's before this hand started and you posted your ante / small blind.

If you fold here, you'll be in the big blind in three hands time, and you'll only have 188 behind at that point. That's not just short stacked, that's in the dead zone.

So this was a horrible beat (you were 87% to win before the flop), but you did the right thing.

 

[robwhufc]

I think your better off having a go here, than waiting 3 hands for your opponent to have a 50/50. You don't know what would have happened if you folded, but if your AA held up (and against 1 random hand it should), you'd have been in.

I'd look on the bright side, you've got $116 in cash, you're opponents will probably all fail to cash in the WCOOP

 

[alan1983]

BBs call wasnt bad, considering what was in the pot. ANd i think you played it fine.
A laydown here and the shortstack waking up with a hand or doubling up and youd have beat urself over it all night.

 

[joeeagles]

Seat 2 is the only stack smaller than yours, and he will go through the blinds again before you. However, there is no garantee that he will lose, and after this hand you won't survive another round of blinds and antes. So all things considered I think you made the right decision, because you can expect BB to call but you'll be going HU with AA, and winning this pot will put you in a position where you can fold and qualify for the $320. If you had 10k you could fold here too, but with your stack size you have to take this chance.

 

[royalburrito24]

how are you in no way the short stack?

you arent the current short stack but having less than 2 BB's constitutes as a shortstack and you made the right play....but I might even fold it just because there is no reward for first place really so you only need enough chips to get by 1 person.

but you still should push there

 

[oluaris]

you made the right play...
you were just unlucky that the chipleader was the BB...
if i was the BB chipleader, i would have called your bet even if i'm positive you had AA and I had 27o...
losing wouldn't hurt the chipleader's stack and winning will end the tournament...
just unlucky...
there's always next time...

 

[dj11]

He may have been close to shortstack at this table, perhaps not so in the whole field.

BB's call was brutal. Results even worse.

This is the only place where a case can be made to fold AA pf. With 14 left you do find yourself at the shortest handed table, meaning yeah, next hand your the button, but 2 hands later your the BB again.

You got manhandled by the poker god Bubba, (the bucolic bastion of bubble banishment). Tough break.

 

[TubaMark316]

Hey, look on the bright side...you got some mean cash getting in 14th place!

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

BBs call is absolutely standard.

Whether to consider folding depends almost entirely on the dynamics of the other tables. For example, on your table you have a guy with 4.1k chips who is going to be forced to make a move within the next few hands (and more crucially will be forced into this before you are) or be blinded out. If this situation is repeated on the other tables, you should probably fold, if not then shove and pray, knowing that the BB is justified in calling with any two cards.

Interesting hand.

 

[OzExorcist]

He may have been close to shortstack at this table, perhaps not so in the whole field.

The lobby screenshot was obviously taken after the hand was finished, but it shows the shortest stacks at the other remaining tables as 6250 and 8400.

 

[CRUDEFINDER]

It was in the back of my head to fold this hand before it was dealt, but when it came AA .......the rest, as they say, is History!!!(and forum fodder....Lay down AA )

While there was a shorter stack than me, anyone could have been knocked out from another table.

 

[OzExorcist]

It's true that anyone could have been knocked out from another table, but it needs to happen in the next three hands. What happens if the short stack ends up all-in in the big blind and his hand holds up? Then you're the shortest stack and even more crippled than you are now.

Remember that you won't be the only one with this idea, and nobody's going to put their whole stack at risk unnecessarily. Unless they're paying no attention to the payout structure

 

[dweezel]

I think you should have pushed one of those "uber" hands when you had more chips earlier when the larger stacks would have thought twice before calling.
I've never had much luck trying to wait out the bubble.

 

[phatjose]

I've found that if you are going to lay down just to get past the bubble, you really need to plan ahead of time to do so. You need to make sure that you aren't the overall short stack, and that there are enough people below you that at least one of them will bust out trying to make a move before you get blinded out. Granted you can't always set it up that way, but if you start planning to do so with ~5-10 left before the bubble bursts, you should be ok. Shoving AA here is a pretty much no brainer.

 

[PokerXanadu]

Tough decision - you are pretty much guaranteed a call by the BB when you push. If you fold, you have a decent chance of moving up one position in the tournament, although it is still dicey. If you double up, you are nearly certain to make it - depending on how many short stacks there are. That's really the missing info - what are the chip stacks at the other table. If there are 3 or more stacks smaller than yours, then fold. Otherwise, do a stop and go - call preflop and go all in on the flop.

 

[OzExorcist]

If there are 3 or more stacks smaller than yours, then fold. Otherwise, do a stop and go - call preflop and go all in on the flop.

The lobby screenshot suggests that the only stack shorter than OP was the one sitting at his table.

 

[PokerXanadu]

The lobby screenshot suggests that the only stack shorter than OP was the one sitting at his table.

Right. I'm just going over the theory of it.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

The lobby screenshot suggests that the only stack shorter than OP was the one sitting at his table.

I nearly mentioned this - but it doesn't necessarily mean much as one or two of the shortest stacks could have shoved and won at the same time the hand in the OP was being played out.

 

[beardyian]

It is a big dilemma granted but its not as your leaving empty handed (imagine how it feels going out on the bubble at the wsop)

Having said that it is a dilemma i would like to have rather than busting out early

Nice result btw

 

[DaFrench1]

This is a sit-out moment

Posted about my sit-out strategy in another post. I reckon you would have made it with the fold. It isn't always the shortstacks that take it in the neck on the bubble either. You probably would have seen one or more players with a higher stack than you bust out because people just do crazy stuff around the bubble and overplay weak hands out of desperation to take down the pot that they think will see them through, they also get more easily pot-commited at this stage and less rational. I've also got a theory that you get dealt big hands around the bubble to get taken out but that belongs in one of the online poker is rigged threads . Though if it is any consolation I wouldn't have resisted the lure of AA either. But a KK would definitely get folded in this spot.

 

[OzExorcist]

Posted about my sit-out strategy in another post. I reckon you would have made it with the fold. It isn't always the shortstacks that take it in the neck on the bubble either.

It's true that it's not always the short stacks that are the ones to bubble out, and in most circumstances I'd say there was absolutely nothing with folding everything on the bubble - especially in a tournament like this where 13th place gets the exact same prize as 1st.

But we're talking about a situation where OP isn't just short-stacked, he's in the dead zone. Fold this hand, and in three hands time he's going to be in the big blind with not even an ante left behind.

I guess the call comes very much down to how the tournament has been playing - if bustouts are still coming thick and fast, then maybe you're a decent chance to scrape over the line in the next three hands. But if people are only busting out every five or ten hands, you're taking a really big gamble with only three hands left to play.