JTs, awkward river decision

[Dorkus Malorkus]

$11 SnG, villain is typically loose-passive. These situations rarely come up for me in SnGs because (a) I'm generally folding hands like this in early levels (but will limp sometimes as I did here or even raise occasionally just to change things up), and (b) by the time I start playing them it's usually push/fold time or thereabouts.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed)

UTG (t555)
UTG+1 (t605)
MP1 (t2800)
MP2 (t1385)
MP3 (t2425)
CO (t1515)
Hero (t1710)
SB (t985)
BB (t1520)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T

, J

.
6 folds, Hero calls t50, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t150) 9

, 9

, 5

(3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t90, SB folds, BB calls t90.

Turn: (t330) Q

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t330) K

(2 players)
BB bets t300, Hero ???

Is calling the overbet way too weak here or is "don't go broke in an unraised pot" buzzing around in your head? If we should raise, how much - are stack sizes forcing us to poooooosh if we do elect to raise?

(For the sake of this topic please ignore the wisdom or lack thereof in my preflop/flop line)

 

[Irexes]

I play tight too early in SnGs but I like the limp here.

I think you call here.

There's a reasonable chance he's buying the pot with an overbet in which case you win it with a call.

If you have him beat and you raise he'll probably fold anyway and you'll pick up the same pot as if you called.

If he calls a raise then he could have the flush or boat and you are losing most if not all of your chips.

The only possible hand he could call a raise with that you beat is K5, I think any 9 is playing it different. To my mind this looks like a runner-runner flush that he wasn't expecting possibly Ahxh.

One of those, you are only getting called if you are beat hands, so it's a call for me.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

i'd make it 1k straight, i cant really fathom villian having you beat here and he might make a bad call with a random 9, which i think is his most likely holding.

 

[Bombjack]

I'd suspect he's made a flush or has been slow playing a full house... but obviously you only need to 30% of these and he could have just hit a King or be slow playing three Nines. You don't want to go broke here so I'd just call it.

 

[ChuckTs]

Safe play: smooth-call to close the action.
Slightly risky play: raise to about 1K as Dingo mentioned.

I think this depends on my past reads on him.

 

[Debi]

Wow - no wonder I am bubble girl.

 

[Irexes]

I think this depends on my past reads on him.

Totally agree. If you've seen him overbet to steal on the river before then reraising becomes much more attractive.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

am i missing something? how is this an overbet? he bets 300 into 330 on the river correct?

 

[Irexes]

Yup, 300 into a 330 pot.

You're right it's not an overbet, but he's suddenly woken up on the river and bet 300 when 120-200 is probably taking it down. Given the stack sizes it's a significant bet. Overbet is probably too strong, but it's certainly more than necessary.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Totally agree. If you've seen him overbet to steal on the river before then reraising becomes much more attractive.

Not seen him try anything like this before. I'm 4-tabling so I may have missed something, but I have no notes on him and I'm generally decent at picking up on these things in the early stages (when I'm mainly folding anyway).

am i missing something? how is this an overbet? he bets 300 into 330 on the river correct?

Yeh I missed the 3rd person in pf. It's still a hefty bet, though.

Interesting that Irexes thinks "any 9 is playing it different", Dingo thinks a 9 is "his most likely holding", and Bombjack seems to suspect villain has a flush/boat. Reasoning behind these thoughts, seeing as they're all so different? Personally I don't see how we can say one of these hands is much more likely than any other - they're all in his range as there was no preflop raise (okay so we can probably discount the big KK/QQ boats but the rest is all fair game).

FWIW I called the river bet and I'm reasonably confident I was correct in doing so as opposed to pooooshing (which I see as our only other option here - if we make it 1k on the river are we really folding to a push getting 23 bazillion to 1? If not, why not just push now - do we really think that any hand that is calling a 1k raise is not calling a push?), but by no means certain. I'll post results later.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

Interesting that Irexes thinks "any 9 is playing it different", Dingo thinks a 9 is "his most likely holding", and Bombjack seems to suspect villain has a flush/boat. Reasoning behind these thoughts, seeing as they're all so different? Personally I don't see how we can say one of these hands is much more likely than any other - they're all in his range as there was no preflop raise (okay so we can probably discount the big KK/QQ boats but the rest is all fair game).

ok, he's BB, so when he check-calls the flop, what can you realistically put him on? a 9 seems obvious, maybe a 5 if hes bad. he checks turn and you check behind, seems to me like he whiffed his check-raise attempt, and now he pots river trying to get the value that he missed on the turn. I think raising to 1k is more of a move to get him to shove over top of you because in his eyes you're basically representing a king in his eyes (assuming hes your avg player at this level) theres no way he thinks u have a str8 here. I think you're giving up a lot of value just calling here, he might even look you up with a king here

FWIW I called the river bet and I'm reasonably confident I was correct in doing so as opposed to pooooshing (which I see as our only other option here - if we make it 1k on the river are we really folding to a push getting 23 bazillion to 1? If not, why not just push now - do we really think that any hand that is calling a 1k raise is not calling a push?), but by no means certain. I'll post results later

no, you are obviously never folding to a push


PS: I like a raise preflop here. open-limping from LP is bad, I think if you're gonna play a hand like J10s and its folded to you, you need to open-raise and take control of the hand.

 

[blankoblanco]

I'm agreed with Dingo on a 9 being his most likely holding, basically for the reasoning Dingo stated above, although I can't put him on the 9 with a great deal of certainty. Problem arises when he has 95, Q9, or K9. He's obviously much more statistically likely to have any of the other 9s that you beat, so I can see an argument being made for raising. But I think just calling is pretty reasonable. I guess it's possible he made the flush, although I'm not really seeing it. And if I did decide to raise I would definitely just push it all-in.

 

[Kenzie 96]

Perfect spot for a minium reraise but as you have obviously suffered some horrible trauma earlier in your life as a result of a minium bet I'd go with the call.

 

[F Paulsson]

Totally agree. If you've seen him overbet to steal on the river before then reraising becomes much more attractive.

If he's stealing, how does raising help us?

 

[ChuckTs]

If he's stealing, how does raising help us?

Well if he's loose enough, we can possibly squeeze a few more chips out of him if he's only hit a piece of the board. Though I suppose smooth-calling is a safer play considering the risk of a flush/FH.

 

[F Paulsson]

Right, but then he's not so much stealing as actually betting a real hand. I'm just (probably without having to) pointing out that raising someone who's stealing is not valuable.

 

[ChuckTs]

Right, but then he's not so much stealing as actually betting a real hand. I'm just (probably without having to) pointing out that raising someone who's stealing is not valuable.

Too true. I often forget what the purpose of a raise is...ie in this hand, thinking he's stealing, I'd probably raise. Who knows why :/

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Villain had A9, for anyone interested in the boring results.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

told ya so!

 

[Ronaldadio]

A9 hearts???

Villain had A9, for anyone interested in the boring results.

Giving him the flush?

I`m a bit late to contribute, but I would have called.

The reason has been stated - if u raise and he reraises u r beat.

I allways like this saying "money saved is as good as money won" - I don`t see a benefit in raising again - if he goes all in what do u do, call?

 

[blankoblanco]

Villain just had A9 for trips. DM would have specified if they were hearts.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

I`m a bit late to contribute, but I would have called.

The reason has been stated - if u raise and he reraises u r beat.

I allways like this saying "money saved is as good as money won" - I don`t see a benefit in raising again - if he goes all in what do u do, call?

ronaldadio, ive read a lot of your posts on here about your MTT play. To win you have to win all the chips. there are going to be very few times when you have an opportunity to get all your money in with the nuts. Even though this is an SNG hand, not raising in this hand is a prime example of a missed opportunity to accumulate chips. You need to make aggressive plays in MTTs in order to win, you simply CANNOT fear the nuts every hand.

 

[pocketTWOs]

I play tight too early in SnGs but I like the limp here.

I think you call here.

There's a reasonable chance he's buying the pot with an overbet in which case you win it with a call.

If you have him beat and you raise he'll probably fold anyway and you'll pick up the same pot as if you called.

If he calls a raise then he could have the flush or boat and you are losing most if not all of your chips.

The only possible hand he could call a raise with that you beat is K5, I think any 9 is playing it different. To my mind this looks like a runner-runner flush that he wasn't expecting possibly Ahxh.

One of those, you are only getting called if you are beat hands, so it's a call for me.

i agrea with you 100% raising into this is suicide,
if he has nothing, he folds.
if he has a 9 he "might" call..probly not with the flush looking at him.

if he has a flush or boat, your in big trouble.

so you will only make more money, "meaby" if he has a 9.
to risky for me, ..i call. its cheap enough, and wont hurt me.

 

[Ronaldadio]

Everyone to their own, I suppose!!!

ronaldadio, ive read a lot of your posts on here about your MTT play. To win you have to win all the chips. there are going to be very few times when you have an opportunity to get all your money in with the nuts. Even though this is an SNG hand, not raising in this hand is a prime example of a missed opportunity to accumulate chips. You need to make aggressive plays in MTTs in order to win, you simply CANNOT fear the nuts every hand.

Maybe if I called more and did not fear the worst I would win more tournys. But then again, maybe I wouldn`t!!!

I see no point in throwing money away, sry. If he was comming the game he would have folded, if he was not, as in this case, u would lose. My humble opinion, in this position, is to call and be happy u won the pot at showdown.

 

[Four Dogs]

Folding is out of the question. You're most likely ahead, but you have that sick feeling in the pit of your stomach that comes from experience. The stars are not alligned. Just call.