JJ vs overbet; late in $3 rebuy

[ChuckTs]

I posted the results elsewhere, so I hope that doesn't affect your opinions, but this one was a toughy. I think my inexperience and lack of discipline really came out with my action.

Villain has been very tight since I sat down about 10 or 20 hands ago. He's 4/4/infinite, and showed down AA, which he reraised all in vs a LP raiser.


pokerstars GAME #10038023173: TOURNAMENT #50596820, $3.00+$0.30 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL XX (10000/20000) - 2007/05/21 - 19:35:54 (ET)
Table '50596820 183' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: RiverReaper (1876662 in chips)
Seat 2: Pokr_Pirate (527017 in chips)
Seat 4: beagle63 (160748 in chips)
Seat 5: xTheWall (282046 in chips)
Seat 6: danuk (210660 in chips)
Seat 7: winnahr (173110 in chips)
Seat 8: bakosa (322612 in chips)
Seat 9: ChuckTs (392726 in chips)
RiverReaper: posts the ante 1000
Pokr_Pirate: posts the ante 1000
beagle63: posts the ante 1000
xTheWall: posts the ante 1000
danuk: posts the ante 1000
winnahr: posts the ante 1000
bakosa: posts the ante 1000
ChuckTs: posts the ante 1000
xTheWall: posts small blind 10000
danuk: posts big blind 20000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Js] [Jh]
winnahr: folds
bakosa: raises 301612 to 321612 and is all-in
ChuckTs: ...


Why is he betting so much? Middle pair? Weak ace or big king? Big pair? AK/AQ?

Is it worth the risk to push?

 

[tenbob]

Id fold AKs, AQ, QQ, here as well as JJ Chuck..

You have a nice solid read on the villans range here, looks like the best case senario is that your racing for all your chips. You see 10's here occasionally, but you really dont need to take that sort of risk. I fold and continue to pick steal spots, something you were doing very effectively.

If your playing good TAG poker up to this point, put yourself in his shoes. Do you shove anything less than JJ/AJ ? Nah, i think while being far from an easy fold, given your reads on his range, then yep ditch it.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I think you're racing a lot of the time here - AK/AQ is more likely to do this than higher pairs just because villain will want to see all 5 cards with those hands as opposed to perhaps have to see a flop OOP that he will miss most of the time.

Even with QQ we're only 55% against a TT+/AK-AQ range, and we have no reson to believe his range is wider than this. We don't want to call off a 20BB stack as only a 55% favourite (and of course we don't even have QQ, we have JJ which is actually marginally behind the aforementioned range, I think).

Fold yo. It's even forseeable that TT isn't in his range for open-shoving and you're either racing or dominated.

 

[ChuckTs]

Just curious, at what stack size point would you say we can call this? ie if he's sitting on 200K or 100K instead.

But ya...(and I swear, without being results-oriented) I really didn't like my call. (I did call). He instapushed, and my thinking was that he was just trying to make a quick steal and with that big of a bet didn't want to be called. In retrospect, he really won't make this push with anything that he's not willing to go to showdown with. Against a looser player I think a call is in order, but against such a tight player I agree that we have to fold.

No need to gamble with my stack at that point when I was doing fine with the occasional steal.

 

[joeeagles]

Too late for me not to be results oriented Chuck. The dreadful JJ does it again...

Overall still a good result though, you played solid poker for ~5 hours, that alone is very respectful. Soon or later you'll win a big MTT, I'm sure.

 

[ChuckTs]

Too late for me not to be results oriented Chuck.

Ya, sorry bout that. Kinda ruins the analysis :/

Overall still a good result though, you played solid poker for ~5 hours, that alone is very respectful. Soon or later you'll win a big MTT, I'm sure.

ty sir

 

[blankoblanco]

Just curious, at what stack size point would you say we can call this? ie if he's sitting on 200K or 100K instead.

If he's got 100k, instacall (or over-shove, really). 200k is probably a call too, but I think it's close. At that point it's 10 BBs, so it really adds a good amount of lower pairs to his range. Around ~250k I probably throw up all over myself trying to figure out what to do.

 

[ChuckTs]

Results:

POKERSTARS GAME #10038023173: TOURNAMENT #50596820, $3.00+$0.30 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL XX (10000/20000) - 2007/05/21 - 19:35:54 (ET)
Table '50596820 183' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: RiverReaper (1876662 in chips)
Seat 2: Pokr_Pirate (527017 in chips)
Seat 4: beagle63 (160748 in chips)
Seat 5: xTheWall (282046 in chips)
Seat 6: danuk (210660 in chips)
Seat 7: winnahr (173110 in chips)
Seat 8: bakosa (322612 in chips)
Seat 9: ChuckTs (392726 in chips)
RiverReaper: posts the ante 1000
Pokr_Pirate: posts the ante 1000
beagle63: posts the ante 1000
xTheWall: posts the ante 1000
danuk: posts the ante 1000
winnahr: posts the ante 1000
bakosa: posts the ante 1000
ChuckTs: posts the ante 1000
xTheWall: posts small blind 10000
danuk: posts big blind 20000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Js] [Jh]
winnahr: folds
bakosa: raises 301612 to 321612 and is all-in
TheSunburn is connected
ChuckTs: raises 70114 to 391726 and is all-in
RiverReaper: folds
Pokr_Pirate: folds
beagle63: folds
xTheWall: folds
danuk: folds
winnahr said, "whew...TY DEVIL42...I owe you one."
*** FLOP *** [2h] [4c] [3h]
RiverReaper said, "IA.k"
*** TURN *** [2h] [4c] [3h] [4s]
*** RIVER *** [2h] [4c] [3h] [4s] [Ad]
RiverReaper said, "ghn"
RiverReaper said, "gf"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
bakosa: shows [Qc] [Qd] (two pair, Queens and Fours)
ChuckTs: shows [Js] [Jh] (two pair, Jacks and Fours)
RiverReaper said, "ytew"
winnahr said, "you are a maniac with those big pairs...VNH"
bakosa collected 681224 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 681224 | Rake 0
Board [2h 4c 3h 4s Ad]
Seat 1: RiverReaper folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Pokr_Pirate folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: beagle63 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: xTheWall (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: danuk (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: winnahr folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: bakosa showed [Qc] [Qd] and won (681224) with two pair, Queens and Fours
Seat 9: ChuckTs showed [Js] [Jh] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Fours

 

[alexanderwoo1]

You should have folded chuck because at best you would be at a coin flip.

 

[hott_estelle]

What place did you end up getting Chuck? Top 30 at least right?

To answer one of your previous question, I think with JJ in that situation, no need to call a raise like that preflop, unless villain only has about 100,000 chips that he's pushing with. You're OOP, have about 40xBB stack, and at this late in the tourney, that's definitely enough to play with. JJ here, in this situation, no need to risk it. Yes you are playing to win, but JJ is either beat or a coinflip like 90% of the time here I believe.

 

[ChuckTs]

I think I came 34th for short of $60. A nice return on ~$9, but the $4500 first place was much nicer-looking...

Thanks for the input, everyone. This was a real tough one at the time. I literally had to say to myself "NO...stop, and think. Okay JJ, he's gotta be on a steal here. Call it. WAIT WAIT NONONONO stop."

Then my index finger disobeyed me.

 

[hott_estelle]

I think I came 34th for short of $60. A nice return on ~$9, but the $4500 first place was much nicer-looking...

Thanks for the input, everyone. This was a real tough one at the time. I literally had to say to myself "NO...stop, and think. Okay JJ, he's gotta be on a steal here. Call it. WAIT WAIT NONONONO stop."

Then my index finger disobeyed me.

Guys have such a hard time controlling one of their fingers, much less their whole hand at times.

 

[ChuckTs]

You have no idea.

Wait...actually, I'm sure you do :/

 

[hott_estelle]

Ohhhh, OK. Took me an hour to get that. LOL, ok not really, was out on a run, anyways--

OK, no seriously, sometimes (or most of the time) in hindsight, its always easy to spot mistakes. The other day, I had 66 late stages of tourney, a reckless, loose player raised EP, I reraised all-in with like 15xBB stack thinking I was good, he called he had 88, flop came out KQQ and blank blank turn and river. He won, I lost. Looking back, I wish I had just called the standard flop raise from him, and pushed flop if I really thought I was committed, because obv you'd think he'd fold the 88 on that board to my push. In hindsight, I can think like this, and say that so-and-so would have been a better option.

Forget my ramble above, what I'm trying to say is, that its easy to spot your error afterwards. Nothing you can do, just let it be a lesson that you really need to think about the action before acting. I'm sure you do, but the more you do the less you'll make these types of mistakes. I need to listen to my own advice.