I still cannot fold this. Correct or bad decision (ICM)?

Marshmalo1994

Marshmalo1994

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Today I qualified to the Hot hyper $11. I was really short near the bubble, and in two hands I was able to build a good stack.
BUT, with 5 players left to ITM, I called a 3bet shove pre flop 🤦‍♂️ (The guy with the AQ was shorter than me).
I would have won at least $21 if weren't for that 5% river :(

I really have to study harder ICM 😅 although I think that this would be a really close decision.

So close

Does someone know the call range here?
 
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fundiver199

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The first thing to note here is, that the total pot was around 20BB, which mean, that each player started with around 7BB on average. And since someone acted before you, the only way for you to be calling a 3-bet would be, if you initially just limped behind or just called a min-raise from SnoopyH, and then picador23666 jammed, SnoopyH called, and you called as well. With less than 20BB you should generally not have any calling range but play all your hands as a push or fold. So the answer to your question about, what your calling range should be, is none, because you should be the player jamming and not calling.

However it can be ok to sometimes trap with a premium hand to induce a shove from someone behind, and in that case you should obviously call, when you get, what you were trying to induce. So no. There is not a close decision here at all. There is not even any decision other than jamming or trapping, when the action get to you first. And being super results oriented, had you jammed, then picador23666 would likely have called, and this might have allowed SnoopyH to fold, meaning you would not have lost all your chips but only some of them. So there is a protection element in jamming rather than trapping, when you are less than 20BB deep.

Finally ICM stands for Independent Chip Model and basically mean, that chips go down in value, as you accumulate more of them. So if for instance in a cash game you would need 40% equity against the opponents range to make a profitable call, then maybe in a tournament you need 50%, when there is high risk aversion like near the bubble, and a call is for all your chips or most of them. But when you correctly call with 50% equity, you still lose 50% of the time. So "studying ICM" does not mean, you will never lose a hand or will never bubble a tournament.

The way, you are using the word ICM, its a bad excuse to make bad folds, which is not, what you want to be doing in poker. What you want to do instead is to build up a bankroll, so that you can buy in directly to a $11 MTT, that you want to play, and not worry about it at all, if you happen to bubble it this time. And to acheive this, you will need to both study and practice more. Best of luck :)
 
MK_

MK_

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I think you're looking at it backwards......, the goal is not to min cash, the goal is to go deep.

Lowing 21 bucks on a 5% river is not important, you had a 95% chance to get a decent stack to work with....

that's exactly how you want to get your chips in, it just didn't work this time, that doesn't mean it's the wrong play👍
 
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fundiver199

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Lowing 21 bucks on a 5% river is not important, you had a 95% chance to get a decent stack to work with....
Not quite. The chips went in preflop, when KK had around 50% equity in the main pot and 80% in the side pot. But of course its still not a play, which there is any reason to question, just because the result was unfavourable :)
 
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fundiver199

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Be looking for ways to win, not for ways to not lose.
Exactly. Its not like a min-cash of in this case $21 is completely irrelevant, but there was likely at least $300 for the winner depending on field size. And the main reason, why $21 seemed important to OP, is likely because, he satellited in. Which I actually think is the key issue here, because in my opinion nobody should ever play satellites for $11 MTTs.

If you are a serious player, you should have at least a 4-figure bankroll, and then you just buy in directly. Or if you are still in the process of building that bankroll, because you are new to the game, then you stick to games, you are bankrolled for, and you dont play satellites. Like if you have reached $475, then you play up to $4.4 MTTs or maybe $5.5 MTTs but nothing higher.

Or if you are a recreational player and want to play a $11 MTT, then you should have the budget to just pay it out of pocket rather than try to satellite in. If people followed these simple guidelines and played with either a bankroll or a budget, there would likely be far less posts about, weather they should have folded KK or sometimes even AA preflop to not bubble in a tournament ;)
 
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