early mtt hand

[joosebuck]

early stages of the rebuy mtt period, at a really really good table. lots of gambling going on, allowing multiple big stacks early. should i take the gambool here and try to get to 35k++ in the first hour or fold since im already at 10k? this was a tough decision for me.

pokerstars Game #8267325353: Tournament #41630203, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2007/02/03 - 20:42:09 (ET)
Table '41630203 345' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: pierre2002 (8110 in chips)
Seat 2: warthog318 (1800 in chips)
Seat 3: girlie_522 (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: jwaces (3000 in chips)
Seat 5: joosebucklol (10540 in chips)
Seat 6: Chubb1947 (1450 in chips)
Seat 7: mikgoose (4430 in chips)
Seat 8: kingth0r (6485 in chips)
Seat 9: Yuza (7685 in chips)
Chubb1947: posts small blind 25
mikgoose: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to joosebucklol [9c 9h]
kingth0r: raises 6435 to 6485 and is all-in
Yuza: raises 1200 to 7685 and is all-in
pierre2002: folds
Chubb1947 re-buys and receives 1500 chips for $3.00
warthog318: folds
girlie_522: calls 1500 and is all-in
jwaces: calls 3000 and is all-in
joosebucklol: .......

 

[t1riel]

4 All Ins and you have pocket nines? Even if you are the chip leader, it's an easy fold.

 

[joosebuck]

this is the rebuy hour. i'm in a good position to be a favorite considering so. and will be the OVERALL chip leader and can coast for quite a while after this. it's not an "easy fold".

 

[Irexes]

Rebuys are all about gambling early to avoid having to gamble later. It doesn't matter that your ROI% drops if your profit goes up (providing you can handle the variance).

Depending on what you've seen the two mid-stacks do previously this is worth thinking about. If they've been pushing any two cards then it's not an easy fold.

I probably reluctantly lay it down but I'd call with JJ or with only one mid stack and two small ones.

 

[zebranky]

probably call

I know its early, but hopefully you have some more information than you posted. For example, if all of these guys are consistently all-in, I would call this. 10K is not that much of a lead on a real loose rebuy table. Yes, you're probably going to be behind (because I would bet that at least 4 cards bigger than your are out there waiting for a pair), but take this opportunity. The chance to roughly triple up is too good to ignore in a re-buy. I would call with any marginal hand - even suited connectors - hoping to get lucky.

 

[joosebuck]

by good table that is exactly what i mean. all in with any ace, any king any suited queen any pair etc. that is why this fold is not an easy fold.

 

[zebranky]

leader for cheap

As a general rule, in a multi-rebuy tourney, I want ot be at least 10x buyin before I quit taking chances. I assume starting chips are 1500, so you;re not there yet. Me, I take the chance of having a huge stack here, because it makes for smooth sailing to the last table if you play conservatively (plus you carry a loose image with you after the rebuy period).

Having said that, if you don't like buying in 10 times just to get lucky twice in a row, then wait for a hand where you have better chances.
Lets try a little math - there's two you need to beat to make a profit here (King and Yuza), but really for your hand beating 2 is the same chance as beating all 4.
roughly 12% of the time you hit your set and win.
assume there are 3 overcards between them. at least one of them will hit 75% of the time. So roughly 25% of the time you win if you don't hit the trips.
finally (as a spoiler), let's say one of them has a suited hand. roughly 2% of the hands you would otherwise win is lost to this flush. Smae goes for them hitting a straight, about 2%

your rough odds are 12+25-2-2, or 33%. I still say call, because your pot odds are MUCH better than this.