Call-down with 3rd pair; is there method to my madness?

[blankoblanco]

Backstory: A little ways into the $24+$2 17k guarantee on Full Tilt. I've been at the same table the whole time, gotten sort of familiar with the players.

My image is pretty aggressive... I'm raising marginal hands with position, usually betting when checked to, with exception of scary board textures where I'm likely to face a check-raise. Villain hasn't showed down hardly any hands I can remember, but seems reasonably aggressive.

full tilt poker Game #2864742398: $17,000 Guarantee (21305965), Table 38 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:07:14 ET - 2007/07/06
Seat 1: rowdydogg79 (2,918)
Seat 2: QueenSDHeart (1,975)
Seat 3: rizniles (1,399)
Seat 5: miss maui (1,815)
Seat 6: Silencer2386 (1,031)
Seat 7: fish_lovr (2,547)
Seat 8: combuboom (2,576)
Seat 9: Fast N Loose (2,721)
Fast N Loose posts the small blind of 50
rowdydogg79 posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [7s 8h]
QueenSDHeart folds
rizniles folds
miss maui folds
Silencer2386 folds
fish_lovr folds
combuboom raises to 300
Fast N Loose folds
rowdydogg79 calls 200
*** FLOP *** [7h Jd 5s]
rowdydogg79 has 15 seconds left to act
rowdydogg79 bets 350
combuboom calls 350
*** TURN *** [7h Jd 5s] [Qc]
rowdydogg79 has 15 seconds left to act
rowdydogg79 bets 1,000
combuboom has 15 seconds left to act
combuboom calls 1,000
*** RIVER *** [7h Jd 5s Qc] [6s]
rowdydogg79 has 15 seconds left to act
rowdydogg79 bets 1,268, and is all in
combuboom calls 926, and is all in

Analyze this

 

[drgilbert4]

He has to have the J (or a larger pocket pair) If he has the J, then he is probably afraid of the Q. He has you covered and has a lot of chips in the pot already. He may call with just the Jack, but would probably fold unless he has the Q or a big PP. I would probably fold unless I had queens beat in his situation. Did you win the hand?

 

[Mehman]

im going to guess he did win this hand because it would be silly posting this on a forum if they guy had trips or something .

 

[drgilbert4]

It depends!! Is this a brag or a bad beat story? You never know!!!

 

[Mehman]

lol it wouldn't even be allowed to be classifed a bad beat, well i hope not anyway .

 

[robwhufc]

Calling station!

He could have a pair of Jacks. He could have hit his queen on the turn. He could have hit a set. He could have 2 pair. He could have a Pocket Pair bigger than your 7's. He could have a 7 with a better kicker. Or he could be pushing Ace High and was hoping you'd fold.

He's made 3 big bets at the pot, you've got no conceivable draws on board, and you were the initial raiser. I wouldn't be stunned to see he's got nothing, but there's got to be a safer way than this of doubling up?

I wouldn't have called the bet on the turn. If you're behind you're looking to hit a 7 or an 8, and an 8 is going to put a load more draws on board for the river. If you think he's bluffing at the pot, raise him, if you think he's got something (and he could well have having called a 200 chip raise) then fold, but you've just been dragged along all the way here.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

You obviously won the hand, otherwise this thread wouldn't exist.

Regardless, the hand is horrible and no amount of 'justification' will change my mind. Preflop is fine, raise ATC on the button if the blinds will generally let you get away with it. Yeah, the flop is drawless and villain probably doesn't lead out with a huge hand here, but his bet could easily be a feeler bet with something like A7 or a value bet with ~AJ.

He continues to lead the turn because the Q isn't really a scare card. Now I don't necessarily mind peeling the flop too much, but good lord, you have to fold the turn as you're not only calling 1k off, you're leaving yourself less than 1k chips behind and hence are essentially committing your stack.

If we give villain some credit, two things are worth noting here.

1) What does he think we're calling on such a drawless flop with? We have to have some sort of made hand, so it will be difficult to shake us off our hand if he's bluffing (even on the turn it will be hard as there are no big scare cardsc that can come).

2) Why would he throw the last of his chips in on the river, with little to no fold equity if he's bluffing? Surely he'd want to save the last 1k chips if he knows he has no chance of winning a showdown which invariably will come?

Actually, on reflection there's only one street that's misplayed here - as I said pf is fine, you can peel the flop and you're committed on the river, but the turn is so horrible I want to go cry in a corner.

Sure, he could be bluffing, but the chances of that aren't anywhere near large enough to justify the call down.

 

[shinedown.45]

villian has AJ/KJ/QJ unless you have a positive read that he only bets/calls with bottom pair and that is the reason your caling his bets, but by the looks of his betting pattern and the read you have on him, I'd say that he has hit his set and your beat.

 

[joeeagles]

I know you as good player, and you certainly are, but until you say the reason for this I really can't understand WTH you're doing here. I noticed villain took a lot of time on every street before betting, so he's possibly fu****g this up, but still, I mean that alone is not enough to gamble your whole stack and as Rob said there has to be a safer way to double up.

Unlike Chris will do (lol), I'll give you a ton of credit if you did win this hand but you have to convince me on the reason for calling this down (some kind of read on villain or tell from the betting pattern, or you know him from before, or lol you can somehow see his hole cards, etc). And, if your suspicions were correct, and he has a hand like 86 or 64 or A5, why not raise the flop and put pressure on him?

 

[Emperor IX]

Backstory: A little ways into the $24+$2 17k guarantee on Full Tilt. I've been at the same table the whole time, gotten sort of familiar with the players.

My image is pretty aggressive... I'm raising marginal hands with position, usually betting when checked to, with exception of scary board textures where I'm likely to face a check-raise. Villain hasn't showed down hardly any hands I can remember, but seems reasonably aggressive.

Full Tilt Poker Game #2864742398: $17,000 Guarantee (21305965), Table 38 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:07:14 ET - 2007/07/06
Seat 1: rowdydogg79 (2,918)
Seat 2: QueenSDHeart (1,975)
Seat 3: rizniles (1,399)
Seat 5: miss maui (1,815)
Seat 6: Silencer2386 (1,031)
Seat 7: fish_lovr (2,547)
Seat 8: combuboom (2,576)
Seat 9: Fast N Loose (2,721)
Fast N Loose posts the small blind of 50
rowdydogg79 posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to combuboom [7s 8h]
QueenSDHeart folds
rizniles folds
miss maui folds
Silencer2386 folds
fish_lovr folds
combuboom raises to 300 (I think you should've limped here. A 3x bb raise isn't going to give you much info on the BB's hand)
Fast N Loose folds
rowdydogg79 calls 200
*** FLOP *** [7h Jd 5s]
rowdydogg79 has 15 seconds left to act
rowdydogg79 bets 350
combuboom calls 350 (Like I said, PF raise gave us no useful information, give him credit for the jack, drop it and move on)
*** TURN *** [7h Jd 5s] Q♣
rowdydogg79 has 15 seconds left to act
rowdydogg79 bets 1,000 (But since you didn't give him credit, NOW give him credit for the Q, drop it and move on)
combuboom has 15 seconds left to act
combuboom calls 1,000
*** RIVER *** [7h Jd 5s Qc] 6♠
rowdydogg79 has 15 seconds left to act
rowdydogg79 bets 1,268, and is all in (Only a true donk would make a last minute desperation bluff against someone who's pot committed in a tournament like this...he's got a Q or a J, or he's an exceptionally bad player)
combuboom calls 926, and is all in

Analyze this

Comments in red.

 

[bw07507]

combuboom raises to 300 (I think you should've limped here. A 3x bb raise isn't going to give you much info on the BB's hand)

If raising to 3x the BB doesnt give you any information on the Big Blinds hand, then limping certainly wont give you any info. I think limping here is terrible, either raise or fold it.

As played I might have raised the flop and then folded to an all in. After just calling the flop bet, you cannot possibly call the turn bet.

 

[Emperor IX]

If raising to 3x the BB doesnt give you any information on the Big Blinds hand, then limping certainly wont give you any info. I think limping here is terrible, either raise or fold it.

As played I might have raised the flop and then folded to an all in. After just calling the flop bet, you cannot possibly call the turn bet.

The thing is is that if he would've limped, he could have gotten away from the hand cheaply if things go wrong (which they will with 78os quite often)

 

[dj11]

It was a bad call on your part, if you prevailed it was a fluke, and you know it. You lost focus, and let your ego get in the way. You seem here to be playing this hand to get villain to actually have to show his cards, good for the other players at the table, but the odds here suggest you are beat. You can't call this one a bad beat, and you certainly wouldn't want to brag about it.

That scolding aside, suckouts do count on the plus side

Either that or you have way too much money in your life and can afford to fritter it away.

 

[pokernut]

The thing is is that if he would've limped, he could have gotten away from the hand cheaply if things go wrong (which they will with 78os quite often)

You don't play 78o in position to see a flop. You raise that hand to take down the blinds. If you do end up seeing a flop you have a hand that is still pretty playable i.e. not terribly dominated by most hands (not that big of a dog against overs, Ax, etc.).

I like a reraise on the flop. He could be doing some kind of a float steal (probably not the best term with villian being oop and this a pre-flop/flop combo, but I think you get what I mean). This play I have found to be a little more successful then a re-steal since that is so common now. If you get called on the flop I give up facing a bet with an unimproved hand on the turn. If you get 3 bet after your flop re-raise, I muck it.

 

[blankoblanco]

Look, I'm not going to say this is an obvious turn call, but if you don't even think it's close, you're using like 5% of your hand-reading skills

Guys, I've been aggressive and c-betting pots. My opponent knows this. On the flop, he donks into me on a dry board. Why? If he has a jack or better, he's donking into me like <5% of the time, because he knows I'm almost certainly going to c-bet if he checks to me, thereby putting more money into the pot when he's ahead.

"he could have trips, he could have two pair, he could have blah blah blah", okay, you're not even reading the hand, you're just naming hands that beat mine.

Seriously, he's donking into the pre-flop raiser on a super dry board when he virtually knows I'm going to bet if he checks. I mean, think about it. Way more often than not he's trying to take the pot because he knows he doesn't have a hand that can call my sure-bet and a check-raise is more expensive

Now the turn comes. Yes, he could have bluffed the flop and then hit the Q, or have Q7, but more than likely he didn't. And if he DID hit the queen, it's the same reasoning as last time! He's more likely to check to me because the board is dry as hell and he absolutely expects me to bet if checked to me. His top pair is completely concealed. If he magically hit the Q, why is he making that relatively scary bet. He doesn't WANT me to fold a J if he hit the Q. He wants to make a bet I can call

And of course I have to follow up my read on the river

To address Dorkus

"Yeah, the flop is drawless and villain probably doesn't lead out with a huge hand here, but his bet could easily be a feeler bet with something like A7 or a value bet with ~AJ."

I agree it could be something like A7 on the flop. But lol, once I call A7 is not betting 1000 into the turn or else he's turning a real hand into a bluff. Therefore the only 7 I'm worried about is Q7 and that's unlikely enough (plus unlikely to have even called preflop). You're not even trying to use any hand-reading at all. AJ is checking this dry board to aggressive-when-checked-to-me like 95% of the time, seriously. Almost any other jack is too, but even if they don't, the lower jacks are probably betting less on the turn if betting, not a big scary bet that's half our stacks

1) Um, after the flop he probably thinks/hopes I have the type of hand I have. Which is why the turn bet is so suspicious and nonsensical if he has a big hand or magically hit the Q. I probably have a J, 7, or pair in between. Once in a while I can have a monster, usually not. The turn hits and it's an overcard to the board, so he thinks it's a good opportunity to push me off the hand, especially if I only have a 7 or a pair under J. But so many weaktight Js (cough half this forum cough.. just kidding) will fold this turn as well

2) I see desperation bets all the time.. it's a big pot and it may be his only chance to win it. But, I mean, you've pretty much admitted yourself that this point is meaningless. Once the river comes, I have to call given the odds and the read I've got throughout the hand. Between the read, pot odds and how common these desperation bets are when the pot gets huge, it's inarguably a call at that point

A lot of hands make sense on ONE STREET. Find hands that beat me that make remote sense on every street. It's like a puzzle. There's very few and they're very unlikely.

 

[joeeagles]

Ok, your thought process makes some sense, but still I'm not sold and that mostly because you're putting your whole tournament life in danger with a marginal hand where you called on every street with the chance of getting outdrawn or having read this incorrectly.

I think where you make most sense is on the flop, because being that you've been aggressive and c-betting pots if he did connect with this board he would check rather than bet with a hand like AJ. There are, however, 2 possibilities I want to add to this:

1) He has a hand like TT or 99. In this case for him the proper play would be to bet into this board and reevaluate based on what you do. If he has 99 he shouldn't check to you and let you c-bet because with an overcard on the board that would be the wrong play, unless he tries a check/raise and hopes that works.

2) He has a weak J. I've spoken about this before on how I've noticed players defending their blinds lately calling raises with all kinds of marginal hands (ex J9, Q9). Again in this case I think the proper action for him is to bet out and not check/raise, to get an idea of where he stands.

Because of the 2 possibilities mentioned above, plus the chance he has zilch like you say, I'd think you should raise the flop for the good chance of getting a fold if you trust your read, with the added benefit of perhaps getting a hand like 88, 99, TT to fold on your better days, even if I realize you're stack doesn't give you much room for a raise. But I'd rather do that than calling all your stack later on.

Once you made the call on the flop and he bets 1k on the turn, which pretty much should exclude (does it?) possibility #1, you have no way out of this anymore, its either fold or call or shove, you can no longer just raise, and you really can't be sure whether the Q helped him or not, with no way of finding it out. You say his turn bet is nonsensical if the Q helped him, but what if its a weak Q? And if he does have such a hand, he's going to shove the river anyway at that point.

Look, I'm not criticizing what you did because I understand the rationale behind it, and I know you're a good player so I respect your read of the situation, but I just think its too risky though w/o ever trying a move throughout this hand, to call your stack with something marginal like you have. I know its a cliche`, but its true that "big pots are for big hands", which doesn't mean you have to fold smaller ones but at times you need to make a move to really know if you're ahead or not. If I had your read here I would have made the move on the flop rather than trusting it going all the way. But that's just me, and I'm wrong many times lol.

 

[stormswa]

Im not going to say anything about the hand yet, 1st want to know why you didnt raise the flop?


I think like dorkus it was missplayed on the turn, The Q hits a lot of hands he would just call with preflop and lead with on flop.

but his lead on the flop dosent make sense, I dont know what hand does this on that board? KJ?


really having trouble putting him on range here. I just cant think of anything besides a J hand that is leading this flop, no flush draws out, no real straight draws. Im confused here.

 

[ChuckTs]

I definitely see your line of thinking, combu - these bets don't want to be called. If you've been aggressive postflop, there's no reason for this guy to be leading into you. He'd be check-calling or check-raising his set/TP/whatever.

Even if he was getting tricky with a set on that flop, seeing you call the bet, he'd probably check-raise the turn with the line of thinking that you'd try and take the pot away on that street.

Once in a while these odd hands pop up, and I follow my gut (my sub- or un-conscious analysis of previous info and my opponent's actions, not my ESP ). It holds true way more often than not. I obv mean no offense when I say this, but you probably didn't go through all that analysis in-hand - you most probably just got the feeling he didn't really have a hand. I'm really not sure where I'm going with this...tired friday...so...ya, I'll just stop the ranting now

 

[blankoblanco]

Alright, I feel the tide turning just a little bit, which is good. I don't expect everyone to be in love with this by any stretch, but if you can at least understand my rationale, I think there's some good hand-reading ideas in it, regardless of the result

Joe, regarding 1):

It's the same idea as A7. 99-TT and A7 can all bet this flop for sure. That part makes sense. The turn doesn't make sense, after he gets called for the flop. He'd essentially be turning 99-TT into a bluff. 95% of the time he's folding out every hand he beats and getting called by every hand that beats him

And I agree it was risky, for sure. Believe me, I am very far from a calling station and this is easily the craziest call-down I've ever made. It just didn't add up, and I didn't think the guy was a donk.. I very much believed he knew what he was doing. He led into me when he knows I'm aggressive enough to bet for him, but that I'm not a calling station and will usually fold if I missed, etc. etc. see previous post. For a better hand than mine, it just doesn't add up. The most concise way to put it is this: He's either got a great hand and should let me take the lead on the flop or turn, or he's got a marginally better hand than mine and he's going to do damage control on the turn and not turn it into a bluff. He did neither, so I didn't believe he had a better hand. That alone may not be enough to make me call the turn, because, as you said, it's my tournament life on the line.

What probably took me just over the edge to go through with it was the smaller details, like the bet timing, and especially the bet sizing on the turn. I just didn't believe him, period. I rarely, rarely make "hero calls" but I've been right more often than not when I have.

Chuck, most of this thought process really did go through my head at the time. On the turn, notice I timed down, and I was actually talking aloud to myself and using a lot of the justification I've used in this thread, obviously in a more condensed form, much like the way you stated it.

I wouldn't have followed the "gut feeling" without all the logical evidence I believed backed it up, and I probably wouldn't have followed the logical evidence without the gut feeling, so there is certainly an element missing for those who did not play with the guy at the actual table or experience the timing of the hand.

But I think using logical hand-reading based on table images alone, it's a mistake and somewhat closeminded to just look at this and say "fold turn, and nothing will convince me otherwise". Simply put, there are very few hands that beat us which actually make sense throughout

 

[ChuckTs]

...there is certainly an element missing for those who did not play with the guy at the actual table or experience the timing of the hand.

This is something I feel is crucial in my decision-making, but it's so hard to convey through a HA thread. Something very hard about convincing someone that you felt your opponent was bluffing, or you felt your hand was best.

A lot of my decisions in games are made without me actually running through the hand. I do most of it subconsciously...maybe that's not a good thing

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

The main problem in looking into the "What hand makes sense?" issue is that I can't think of a single hand that makes a great deal of sense here, including any bluff. With such a degree of uncertainty surrounding the hand, there's no way I would be willing to commit my stack here. Maybe it's because I'm a weak-tight nit, maybe it's because I'm sensible, who knows?

Guys, I've been aggressive and c-betting pots. My opponent knows this. On the flop, he donks into me on a dry board. Why? If he has a jack or better, he's donking into me like <5% of the time, because he knows I'm almost certainly going to c-bet if he checks to me, thereby putting more money into the pot when he's ahead.

True, but it could just as easily be a feeler bet with a weak made hand that is still superior to yours. Even with something like JT I'd rather lead here in many cases as a c/r is essentially committing us with top pair okay kicker, whereas we have room to fold (especially on that flop) if raised.

Now the turn comes. Yes, he could have bluffed the flop and then hit the Q, or have Q7, but more than likely he didn't. And if he DID hit the queen, it's the same reasoning as last time! He's more likely to check to me because the board is dry as hell and he absolutely expects me to bet if checked to me. His top pair is completely concealed. If he magically hit the Q, why is he making that relatively scary bet. He doesn't WANT me to fold a J if he hit the Q. He wants to make a bet I can call

As I said before, on such a dry flop you almost have to be calling with some sort of made hand, which is going to be difficult for you to fold. The turn lead for value seems reasonable - it enables him to get your stack in very easily on the river.

I dunno, I see your point on the flop in that he could be leading with air, but I still think you have to respect this bet. Right now not a lot of hands are making sense but I think we can place villain's range at something like QJ-Q7/KJ/TT-88/bluff. Of course other hands are possible, but not likely enough to be overly concerning (I really don't think he's flopped a set here, for example).

"Yeah, the flop is drawless and villain probably doesn't lead out with a huge hand here, but his bet could easily be a feeler bet with something like A7 or a value bet with ~AJ."

I agree it could be something like A7 on the flop. But lol, once I call A7 is not betting 1000 into the turn or else he's turning a real hand into a bluff. Therefore the only 7 I'm worried about is Q7 and that's unlikely enough (plus unlikely to have even called preflop). You're not even trying to use any hand-reading at all. AJ is checking this dry board to aggressive-when-checked-to-me like 95% of the time, seriously. Almost any other jack is too, but even if they don't, the lower jacks are probably betting less on the turn if betting, not a big scary bet that's half our stacks

How much credit are we giving villain here? You've said you've sat with him for a while - how good a player does he appear to be? I'll lead with a good made hand on that flop sometimes, hoping to get a stack-committing raise from my opponent's marginal hand/bluff (because he will read me as weak) and take a large pot down.

You refer to the fact that the turn Q doesn't particularly scare you - is there any reason why it should particularly scare villain? You seem to be implying that it should, for some reason.

Why is the turn bet 'nonsensical' if he has hit the Q? There's 1,350 in the pot when villain acts, 1k is a pretty standard bet that also has the added bonus (assuming villain has a good hand) of commiting you if you decide to call with your Jx or whatever. It looks on the surface like he's only betting 1k, but in fact he's essentially shoving - how is this a bad thing if he has hit the Q?

A lot of hands make sense on ONE STREET. Find hands that beat me that make remote sense on every street. It's like a puzzle. There's very few and they're very unlikely.

Find a bluff that makes remote sense on every street, especially the river shove and the turn bet given that you'd called the flop lead on a drawless board.

It's a very 'grey' hand, all in all.

All the above said, I liked your post a lot, and can appreciate that there was at least some rationale behind your decisions. Doesn't stop me from thinking it's a horrible turn call though.

 

[blankoblanco]

Why is the turn bet 'nonsensical' if he has hit the Q? There's 1,350 in the pot when villain acts, 1k is a pretty standard bet that also has the added bonus (assuming villain has a good hand) of commiting you if you decide to call with your Jx or whatever. It looks on the surface like he's only betting 1k, but in fact he's essentially shoving - how is this a bad thing if he has hit the Q?

Like I implied, Qx was my biggest worry, just not big enough to merit me folding. He certainly can bet a hit Q here, I just think he would more likely check it. The stacks are good for him letting me commit myself when I can't exactly put him on a Q, whereas his bet lets me get away from a bunch of hands.

Find a bluff that makes remote sense on every street, especially the river shove and the turn bet given that you'd called the flop lead on a drawless board.

Given that everyone and their mother is folding a 7 here, I'm guessing a lot of bluffs make sense? The river is often just a desperation thing.. it's almost an afterthought to me because there's so much in the pot to be won compared to what I have left, and I could easily have missed a draw with AK or KT which beats his Ax or Kx (what I essentially put him on) if he has to show down. And I'm obviously folding those hands. He made a weak donk bet into me on the flop, not exactly radiating strength. I have position. I can float this flop with AK or KT easily. In fact, I usually will with AK. KT sometimes

I should add that this isn't likely, but there's just so much in the pot compared to what I have left that if there's any realistic chance I can have a draw or even giving up on something below a J, it's not that unreasonable for him to bet. But it's often just desperation, as said

All the above said, I liked your post a lot, and can appreciate that there was at least some rationale behind your decisions. Doesn't stop me from thinking it's a horrible turn call though.

Fair enough

 

[joeeagles]

Ok, I said in my 1st post that I'd give you a ton of credit for calling this down with a good reason to do so, and I'm buying it now. There is just 1 more thing though, his bet on the flop:

it could just as easily be a feeler bet with a weak made hand that is still superior to yours. Even with something like JT I'd rather lead here in many cases as a c/r is essentially committing us with top pair okay kicker, whereas we have room to fold (especially on that flop) if raised.

I pretty much also made this point, when I mentioned about players excessively defending their blinds calling raises with marginal hands like J9o or JTo. Although you made a lot more on this hand than you would of had you raised him on the flop, this strategy also carried a greater risk. What I'm trying to get to is why didn't you raise him on the flop, following your read that his bet didn't make sense? It also gives you the added benefit of probably making him lay-down a hand like JT, J9 or J8, that has you beat. That is my last question about this hand.

After the flop I do have to agree that the J/small card no longer adds up, he wouldn't commit himself here after you flat call the flop bet and an overcard to the J shows up on the turn, and you did say that your only concern was Qx, which at this point represents the only danger hand left. But you felt it wasn't probable, so that is also covered.


Anyway, overall this was greatly played using a logic that makes sense, and that can't be argued. Risky, but very gutsy and I'm sure it made you feel good taking this down because you made the correct read throughout the whole hand. No better feeling in NLHE than catching someone bluffing and calling them down with a rather poor hand (this hand kind of reminds me of A. Cunningham when he called down Jamie Gold with only A high on a paired board, where he correctly read him for a busted flush draw).

 

[alan1983]

raise flop?

 

[blankoblanco]

To the million people telling me to raise the flop: noooo. Especially in this situation. I really loathe it

The whole "raising to see where you're at" thing, usually, sucks. There are probably exceptions, but basically the information you get is often not worth the price you're paying for it. Especially in this case, when an appropriate flop raise would cost about 1/2 of my stack

If I raise I get called only by hands that beat me and fold out every hand I beat. That's like the exact opposite of what you want to do in poker. I don't give him an opportunity to fire another bluff later in the hand, which, given my read on the hand, was what I wanted to do.

And if he's not bluffing, he might slow down with his J on a lot of turn cards, and I can get a cheap show down instead of pumping half my stack in on the flop and pretty much committing myself when I'm only getting action if I'm behind

Plus I'm in position. Why am I in a rush to end the hand early? He's at the disadvantage. I get to see what he does first which makes my evaluations easier. He's the one in the dark