CALL ?

[tenbob]

Playing a live game tonight, blinds are high 300-600 from a starting stack of 2.5K. 8 players left out of 10. Im on the button as the table chip leader with a stack of 11K. (It was a re-buy, if your wondering about stack sizes, re-buy period is over)

So here we go again

UTG- FOLD
Seat 2- (passive, calling station stack 3.5K) CALL-600
Seat 2 -( Total donk lol stack 4K) CALL-600
Fold to the CO- (2nd chip leader, suprised at the call, stack 8K)- CALL 600

So i look down to see [Qh] [Qc]

The pot is standing at 2700, so i make it 2,000 to stay , id be quite happy to take the limpers here and now. (Should i have bet more)

Blinds fold,
Seat 2 CALLS, leaving him with 1.5K. So im heads up. Pot now stands at 5,500.

FLOP
[Ad] [2h] [8c]

Now our calling station leads into me with an all-in move, for 1.5K more, im almost certain he has the ace. Call or fold ?

 

[Freakakanus]

Fold, I know it's probably the wrong move but if you think he'd make the move with any Ace you better fold.

 

[shwingzilla]

Fold. If he has the Ace, you have practically no chance of winning so pot odds aren't gonna help you. Ya gotta go with your gut.

 

[joosebuck]

so you'd be risking 1500 to win a pot of 7k.

(ok ill pretend to be fpaul for a second.)

folding gives you an equity of 1.5k? or would it be -2000 because of the preflop bet? im not sure, im still trying to figure out all of the calculations involved with these hands

if he has the ace with a poor unsuited kicker, lets say Aspades and 4diamonds, he will win about 90% of the time.

your call equity would be 700 if you are 100% sure he has the ace, but if he has something like 34suited and is trying to push you out with a semibluff, you are 77% to win and are getting like 5300 fold equity, which would be a definite call

the all in kinda seems to show weakness to me, but im sure i dont have all the information on how he was playing and everything.


in short, i have no idea.

 

[chicubs1616]

You need to raise more preflop. Raising to 2000 with these blinds and 3 limpers ahead of you isn't doing much good. Generally I would want to raise to 3600-4200 here, in this case that is putting two of the limpers in the hand all in and half the stack of the other. Personally, instead of raising this much (and thus commiting yourself to the hand if CO decides to push his chips all in), I would simply move all-in when the action gets to me...

Onto your play...Whoever posted that you are calling 1500 to win 7000 is incorrect... you do NOT factor in your call into the total pot when calculating pot odds. You need to call 1500 to win 5500, so you are getting 3.67:1 odds.

You are getting very favorable odds here, but as you said, you are almost certain he has an A. If you think he has an A more than ~75% of the time here, you should fold. If there is at least a 25% chance that your opponent does not have an ace, this should be a call.

Put simply, with the odds you are getting...

Let's say he has an Ace 75% of the time here...

You call an lose (this will happen 90% of the time) you lose 1500 chips * .9 = -1350 chips

You call and win (happens 10% of the time) you add 5500 to your stack *.1 = 550 chips

(You have a net loss of 800 chips if he has an A...)


Lets say he doesn't have an A 25% of the time...

You call, he doens't improve and you win 5500 chips (lets say 80% of the time) so 5500 * .9 = 4950 chips

You call, he improves, and you lose (1500 chips) 1500 *.1 = -150 chips

(You have a net profit of 4800 chips if he doesnt have an A)

Overall, you will have a net profit of:

(-800*.75) + (4800*.25) = + 600 chips...


Even being behind in the hand 75% of the time, calling the all-in is still a play that has positive expectation, therefore, you should make it...

Sorry if this is overkill, and if no one understands this, I will be happy to answer more questions.

Again, push preflop...

 

[Four Dogs]

An all-in would not have been out of line here, but why if a near pot sized bet will do the trick. Your preflop raise seems to have been spot on. It achieved exactly what you wanted it to do. You got heads up with the calling station. Passive right? Your raise represented confident strength, particularly in the face of 3 callers. No need to get to technical about this. The Ace should have scared him, but it didn't. The all-in doesn't seem fishy at all to me. Your beat. Fold.
If the donk had called that would be another story.

 

[joosebuck]

"Blinds fold,
Seat 2 CALLS, leaving him with 1.5K. So im heads up. Pot now stands at 5,500.

FLOP
A♦ 2♥ 8♣

Now our calling station leads into me with an all-in move, for 1.5K more, im almost certain he has the ace. Call or fold ?"

5.5k in the pot preflop, the dude with the ace had 1.5k and moved all in, bringing the pot to 7k

 

[chicubs1616]

Sorry, you are correct. This means your pot odds are actually 4.67:1.

This makes me lean even more towards calling, even if I am almost certain he has the ace...

Even if he has an ace 4:5 times, the call is still profitable...

FourDogs, I would push preflop instead of betting around 4000 because 4000 represents a very large portion of your stack to the pot, and you will be committed if the CO calls with his 8k stack or repushes over you, so you should be initiating the aggression and forcing others to make decisions for all of their chips...

WIth the blinds this high, you are happy if everyone folds and you take down this pot...

 

[tenbob]

Ok, thanks for all the replys folks, i like the thinking behind your reply Chicubs. The 2000 raise on hindsite was to attempt to isolate 1 player. QQ can be a very dominating hand, if the CO had decided to push, then so be it, he was getting called. He was the strongest player at the table, and the "no-raise" from him indicated to be he wanted to see a cheap flop with connectors or a marginal hand like J-10s, or lower PP.

Now as regards out donk that likes to call raises with A-rag. I wasnt sure if i was 75% he had the Ace, the guy in question had bluffed at big pots in the past, now if i wanted any player to win this large pot at the table it was him.

I called the bet, he showed [Ac] [6d], I didnt improve and he took down the pot. But realistically he felt that he played the hand to perfection !! LOL

So now he changes from calling with his A-rag hands to raising them. I got my chips in the middle about 15 minutes later with AKs vs his A9o and took him out.

 

[Four Dogs]

A,6? You got this guy mislabled. Should have been Donk#1 and Donk#2.