Bubble Math

Pokerstudent

Pokerstudent

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Hello All, Been awhile...

PS SNG - Bubble with 3 left and me (so 4 in total).
Blinds are 80/160/20 ante
SB - Aggro chip stack to my right...raising about 90% of hands now. Has 73% of all chips (9764)
BB - ME. I have 767 chips.
HiJack (do we still call it that? Been a long time for me...) - 600 chips. Smart player. Has been folding a lot since he got low. (prob looking for a hand to shove)
Button - don't know much about them. 1767 chips.

SB calls the blind. I check. 2 players.

Flop is :ah4::qd4::5d4:
I have :9d4::6d4:

SB min bets 160.
Since I'm on the button and the delta (difference between my 769 and the Hijack with 600 is 9 chips more than a BB. Blinds won't go up after this hand. do I...)
1) Shove
2) Fold (and if so, am I just trying to blind him out?)
3) Call (can't imagine this is right)

And why?

Thank you.
 
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fundiver199

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Its a little weird, that an "aggro chip stack" limp into your big blind, when you have less than 5 BB left, instead of jamming and applying maximum ICM pressure to you. Makes me kind of think, that either he is trapping you with a monster, or he is not as "aggro" or for that matter good, as you think. But with that being said I am not big on trying to win folding wars, and this is a pretty good flop for you. So push that jam button and hope, he folds, or that you can suck out on him. You are only really dead here, if he has AX of diamonds, and most suited aces would likely have jammed preflop.
 
_420_420_

_420_420_

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Fold - IMHO you are only getting called by better flush draws or you are drawing against top pair at least. The chance of getting an Ace (maybe even a sticky Queen?) to fold is slim and on the bubble especially I lean on the lower variance option of folding.
 
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fundiver199

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_420_420_ said:
The chance of getting an Ace (maybe even a sticky Queen?) to fold is slim
Click to expand...
Of course he is never folding an ace or a Q to heros stack size. But why does he need to have such strong hands, when all, he did, was limp preflop and stab the flop for a min-bet? Could he not have a hand like J high, and would such a hand not fold facing a jam?
 
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