$70 NL HE MTT: I can never fold, right? AQ suited against maniac out of position

[_420_420_]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

70

Game Options

1. Rebuy

Currency

$

Blinds are at 400/800 and we are the effective stack with 25k chips (31bb) after a rebuy. In the UTG+1 AQ of spades and UTG limps and Hero over limps. Loose villain in MP calls and a tight player on the button raises to 2500. Folds to Hero who calls along with main villain.

Flop is

Hero checks and villain overbet jams and has hero covered; Button snap folds.

Now I know for a fact that my overcards are live here, villain almost never has a straight or a set. This guy has been playing crazy all tournament, he will literally jam with hands like top pair or flush draws. In this spot I am putting him on a naked pair no draw. So I call.

Villain has 79o.

Runout bricks

Considering that I had 60% equity to call against just a pair, did I make the right choice here? Now I know that I could have raised multiple times pre flop, but I think that villain is calling regardless all things considered.

 

[puzzlefish]

Considering that I had 60% equity to call against just a pair...

What are you talking about here? How do you figure you have 60% equity?

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I would not limp behind with this hand, unless the plan is to go for a back-jam in case someone else raise. Raise it up to 3,5BB and be willing to get it in against a 3-bet. And as played go for that back-jam. BTN raise to just over 3BB over 3 limpers, which does not look strong at all, and you want to drive out the maniac in the middle or allow him to make some ridiculous call for all your chips.

Flop
You have around 50% equity against one pair but only around 45%, if he is also doing this with sets, two pair and straights, and why would he not be getting it in with these stronger hands on a super wet and dynamic board? So yes you can fold here, but you can also get it in against him. Its so close in EV, it does not really matter.

 

[_420_420_]

What are you talking about here? How do you figure you have 60% equity?

With the flush draw and over cards I have 15 outs, so I calculated that as 60% in my head at the time

 

[puzzlefish]

With the flush draw and over cards I have 15 outs, so I calculated that as 60% in my head at the time

Ok. Yeah I thought it sounded a bit high. I kind of keep these situations (overpairs with flush draws) as about 50% flips in my head. Boring tournament-ending coin flips.

 

[fundiver199]

With the flush draw and over cards I have 15 outs, so I calculated that as 60% in my head at the time

Its not 60%, because your overcards are not always live, and even when you hit them, he has a redraw to them, because he can make two pair, trips and often a straight as well. The free program Equilab can help you get better at equity estimations.