$6.60 NL HE MTT: near ITM good or bad call?

[IADaveMark]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

6.60

VP$IP

31

PFR

21

Currency

$

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 3,500/7,000 (875 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

SEVABLR (UTG): 55,175 (8 bb)
fredgol9 (MP): 216,255 (31 bb)
EhrmantrautJs (MP+1): 403,628 (58 bb)
ANTCHIP12345 (CO): 226,510 (32 bb)
InnocuousFox (BU): 293,854 (42 bb)
Waldec1r (SB): 240,842 (34 bb)
BLND1K (BB): 99,293 (14 bb)

Pre-Flop: (16,625) Hero (InnocuousFox) is BTN with Q♦ 6♦
2 players fold, EhrmantrautJs (MP+1) raises to 14,000, 1 fold, InnocuousFox (BU) calls 14,000, Waldec1r (SB) calls 10,500, 1 fold

Flop: (55,125) Q♣ J♦ 7♥ (3 players)
Waldec1r (SB) checks, EhrmantrautJs (MP+1) bets 18,191, InnocuousFox (BU) calls 18,191, Waldec1r (SB) calls 18,191

Turn: (109,698) 2♦ (3 players)
Waldec1r (SB) checks, EhrmantrautJs (MP+1) bets 81,177, InnocuousFox (BU) calls 81,177, Waldec1r (SB) folds

River: (272,052) 7♣ (2 players)
EhrmantrautJs (MP+1) bets 289,385 (all-in), InnocuousFox (BU) calls 179,611 (all-in)

Total pot: 631,274

Showdown:
EhrmantrautJs (MP+1) shows 2♣ 2♠ (a full house, Twos full of Sevens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 8%, Turn: 82%, River: 100%)

InnocuousFox (BU) shows Q♦ 6♦ (two pair, Queens and Sevens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 92%, Turn: 18%, River: 0%)

EhrmantrautJs (MP+1) wins 631,274

 

[puzzlefish]

I think it is a bad call because his range crushes yours. Yes, you hit a pair on the flop and it was top pair, but your kicker is crappy and yet you are still playing for stacks. Give up on the turn.

 

[IADaveMark]

I think it is a bad call because his range crushes yours. Yes, you hit a pair on the flop and it was top pair, but your kicker is crappy and yet you are still playing for stacks. Give up on the turn.

Part of it was that, if I folded the turn, I would have had only 18bb left. That and the flush draw out there were major decision factors.

 

[puzzlefish]

Part of it was that, if I folded the turn, I would have had only 18bb left. That and the flush draw out there were major decision factors.

How do you figure 18bb? Are you not calling 25.6 BB on the river?

 

[IADaveMark]

How do you figure 18bb? Are you not calling 25.6 BB on the river?

Sorry... bad memory on that apparently

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Q6s is not a standard open from MP+1. So why are you calling with it, when someone else has already opened from MP+1? The way, we determine a calling range, is, that we take the range of hands, we would open from Villains seat, and then we fold the worst of them. This is the starting point. Then we make adjustments based on knowing something about the opponent and ICM. Here MP+1 is the table chip leader and the only player, who can bust you. This mean, you want to play less hands against this player not more, since he can apply a lot of pressure to you postflop. So your calling range here should be narrower than normal and certainly not wider. Even a hand like QJs would be a reasonable fold to simply stay out of the chipleaders way and make it into the money.

Flop
This is why, we dont call with suited junk preflop. Now you have top pair but no kicker, and any hand, which is betting for value, has you crushed. You also have SB left to act behind you, so calling here is certainly not something, I would be excited about. But I guess, you kind of have to do it as played.

Turn
Now you picked up a flushdraw, and therefore its fine to call again as played. It is a pretty large bet though, which I am not particularly happy about. But a Q or 6 could also be outs for you, so you still have to continue.

River
Now you chop with QT, Q9 and Q8, but I dont think, thats to relevant, because those hands are likely not jamming for value, so you are purely bluff catching now. I would never be in this spot, because I would have folded preflop. But if the opponent is a good player, who understand how to apply pressure, I guess, you have to go down with the ship and call here hoping, that he will show up with some total airball bluff.

Results
Obviously he got kind of lucky to hit a 2-outer on the turn. But even so you 100% did this to yourself by calling the table chipleader preflop with suited junk.

 

[IADaveMark]

Q6s is not a standard open from MP+1.

Yeah, I knew it was on the thin side. GTO Wizard has it at Q8s-Q9s.

but I was bored, and it was soooooted

Probably not far from the truth.

you 100% did this to yourself

Yep. Almost pulled it off but I shouldn't have been in that situation to begin with.

 

[fundiver199]

Yeah, I knew it was on the thin side. GTO Wizard has it at Q8s-Q9s.

GTO Wizard is for cash games or early stage MTT play. It does not take ICM into account, and near the bubble or on the final table this is far more important than having perfect balance and board coverage. If CO had opened, this could be an ok call, since then you are the one, who can apply pressure to him postflop. But when its the chip leader opening, you should just fold and stay out of his way. In a tournament chips are like soldiers, and as any smart general you should pick a fight against the smaller armys not the bigger ones

 

[IADaveMark]

GTO Wizard is for cash games or early stage MTT play. It does not take ICM into account,

Actually, for many solutions, you can put in how much of the field is remaining and switch it over to ICM instead of ChipEV. But your logic is sound... and I preach it myself. ("Do as I say, not as I do.")

 

[puzzlefish]

Don't get sucked in to the siren of the flush draw, when you don't even have the nut flush draw.

 

[fundiver199]

Don't get sucked in to the siren of the flush draw, when you don't even have the nut flush draw.

We cant fold the turn, when we have both top pair and a draw. Sometimes he will be bluffing, and we actually have the best hand already. And other times a Q or 6 will give us the best hand in top of a diamond. Hero got a bit unlucky here to run into a set, but sets are only a small fraction of the opponents range. Folding to the river bet is an option though. Its never mandatory to call for the rest of your chips with a pure bluff catcher.

 

[puzzlefish]

We cant fold the turn, when we have both top pair and a draw. Sometimes he will be bluffing, and we actually have the best hand already. And other times a Q or 6 will give us the best hand in top of a diamond. Hero got a bit unlucky here to run into a set, but sets are only a small fraction of the opponents range. Folding to the river bet is an option though. Its never mandatory to call for the rest of your chips with a pure bluff catcher.

I think the bluffing is going to be very rare here with that big of a bet on the turn. I am okay with an exploitative fold here, even if in general we should be continuing. When we can't even river the best flush, I think I would rather cut my losses early and find a better spot.

 

[fundiver199]

I think the bluffing is going to be very rare here with that big of a bet on the turn.

I dont see, why bluffing should be rare, when not a single draw has come in, and the opponent is the chip leader near the bubble. In fact bluffing should be very common in this situation, if the opponent is competent. But of course it will depend on opponent type, and the lower the buyin, the less bluffing you will see in general. Also if he is always betting for value, we will never get overflushed, so then it does not matter, how high our flush draw is.

Preflop should be a fold, and river is probably a fold in a $6.6 MTT without the right opponent reads. But turn is a very clear call in my opinion. If you always fold in situations like this, you are waaaay overfolding and very easy to push around. Sure we should not have Q6 to begin with. But if you fold Q6 of diamonds, I dont see, why you would continue with Q9 or QT of diamonds either, since its basically the same hand

 

[makisaa]

When the villain is making a big bet at the turn he saws he has a strong hand and at the river you go all in remaining with two pairs. I would have folded from that bet at the turn.

 

[eetenor]

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 3,500/7,000 (875 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

SEVABLR (UTG): 55,175 (8 bb)
fredgol9 (MP): 216,255 (31 bb)
EhrmantrautJs (MP+1): 403,628 (58 bb)
ANTCHIP12345 (CO): 226,510 (32 bb)
InnocuousFox (BU): 293,854 (42 bb)
Waldec1r (SB): 240,842 (34 bb)
BLND1K (BB): 99,293 (14 bb)

Pre-Flop: (16,625) Hero (InnocuousFox) is BTN with Q♦ 6♦
2 players fold, EhrmantrautJs (MP+1) raises to 14,000, 1 fold, InnocuousFox (BU) calls 14,000, Waldec1r (SB) calls 10,500, 1 fold

Flop: (55,125) Q♣ J♦ 7♥ (3 players)
Waldec1r (SB) checks, EhrmantrautJs (MP+1) bets 18,191, InnocuousFox (BU) calls 18,191, Waldec1r (SB) calls 18,191

Turn: (109,698) 2♦ (3 players)
Waldec1r (SB) checks, EhrmantrautJs (MP+1) bets 81,177, InnocuousFox (BU) calls 81,177, Waldec1r (SB) folds

River: (272,052) 7♣ (2 players)
EhrmantrautJs (MP+1) bets 289,385 (all-in), InnocuousFox (BU) calls 179,611 (all-in)

Total pot: 631,274

Showdown:
EhrmantrautJs (MP+1) shows 2♣ 2♠ (a full house, Twos full of Sevens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 8%, Turn: 82%, River: 100%)

InnocuousFox (BU) shows Q♦ 6♦ (two pair, Queens and Sevens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 50%, Flop: 92%, Turn: 18%, River: 0%)

EhrmantrautJs (MP+1) wins 631,274

This is a bad call preflop - The BB has a shove stack and should shove most of their top of range- by calling we give the BB great odds to play most of their range which means we have no clarity on any board as BB hits all mid and low boards and Opener has us range dominated on mid and high boards. Just a terrible spot to be in near the bubble.
Your actions here are raise -for bubble leverage to get folds and to take control IP if called or fold. We raise because we can dump the hand to a 4 bet from the opener. If we had say QTs then we could call because it is a two way hand that we do not want to fold to a 4 bet.

As played
river is 100% fold---we have bubble pressure yet our V is blasting away

 

[300HPGOD]

Super late getting to this one so I apologize but wanted to comment since I enjoy your posts and also the hands you are involved in. A lot has been said about pre which I highly agree with that this is an easy fold. I did not see it mentioned above (forgive me if it was) but another reason why we should not be calling here is BB has a jam stack. We can not take any pressure pre flop here with Q6 and BB, assuming they have a pulse, should be jamming here maybe a little wider than normal since there is now potential dead money with the call plus it was table chip leader opening which should be/could be opening a bit wider than normal. BB would not be jamming so wide, though, that we could call with Q6 nor is the opener opening wide enough to call with Q6 so this is a very easy fold pre.

Flop is a top pair flop but as mentioned above we still cant be too thrilled with our hand. its an obvious call as played but we should not be fist pumping here by any means.

Turn we face a large bet and pick up a draw which is not nut of course but better than nothing. The large bet here would actually make me think villain could be weaker but then again it could mean they want to setup a river jam that is at least close to pot (which was the case). I think as played its very hard to fold here but by now with all the posts above, we know we shouldnt be here. Its a call though and if I were in this spot somehow I would be praying for a check to me on the river yet I know going in I would not get one.

River: its an overbet jam that really is polar given the dynamics and timing of the tournament. Bluffs are there and could do this and big hands do this. I would not be so sure that a hand like KQ would do this though... Not sure what villain would do here with their Qx . I agree with Fundiver above that the Q9 and Q8 are rare, I do think there could be Q10 but does Q10 bet the river like this? Im not sure but I dont think so. When we face this bet Im just puking if I got here somehow. I do think if you got this far you have to call but you should have never been here. You had a 40 BB stack that you cant say you punted but you can say you wasted. This hand, imo, is a pretty big leak and one that can cost you significant amounts of money if not fixed.