$5 NL HE MTT: Would you fold bottom set?

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

5

Game Options

1. Turbo

Currency

$

Game is a $5 18-man SnG on pokerstars. This was the very first hand, so no reads on the opponents, except that they limped. Would you fold bottom set facing this action?

PokerStars, $4.52 + $0.48 - Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 (3 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 1,500 (75 bb)
UTG+1: 1,500 (75 bb)
MP: 1,500 (75 bb)
MP+1: 1,500 (75 bb)
LP: 1,500 (75 bb)
CO (Hero): 1,500 (75 bb)
BU: 1,500 (75 bb)
SB: 1,500 (75 bb)
BB: 1,500 (75 bb)

Pre-Flop: (57) Hero is CO with 3♦ 3♣
2 players fold, MP calls 20, MP+1 calls 20, 1 fold, Hero raises to 100, 3 players fold, MP calls 80, MP+1 calls 80

Flop: (357) 5♣ 6♠ 3♥ (3 players)
MP checks, MP+1 bets 1,397 (all-in), Hero?

 

[Jaelan]

Nope. I call here, all day long.

 

[maronza1]

No, i think the bottom set here is ahead. MP+1 might be jamming with A6 or A5 or pocket 7s

 

[300HPGOD]

I think pre flop here I just call unless these are players I play against all the time and have many hands on me and then I might raise at times as a balance play but if these are players from a large player pool that you dont play against with any regularity I think its better here to just call and set mine for cheaper. If you have a read you can get folds maybe but since stacks are all the same this seems like first hand of the tournament.

As far as the hand goes, I think you more likely are up against a 64 or 54 type hand than 74, 42, 66 or 55. I think that way because, yes, those hands can be drawn out on in this spot but are people really risking folds by leading out jamming here when they have 66? Some I guess do but majority would not, especially when you raised pre and they could just check to the raiser or some min small bet to try to induce a raise etc. Also, we are 75 BBs deep and not 150 BBs or more so I think this is a call. Its a spot too where if they have it, they have it.

 

[Manf1]

In most of the time i will call this board

 

[eetenor]

Game is a $5 18-man SnG on PokerStars. This was the very first hand, so no reads on the opponents, except that they limped. Would you fold bottom set facing this action?

PokerStars, $4.52 + $0.48 - Hold'em No Limit - 10/20 (3 ante) - 9 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 1,500 (75 bb)
UTG+1: 1,500 (75 bb)
MP: 1,500 (75 bb)
MP+1: 1,500 (75 bb)
LP: 1,500 (75 bb)
CO (Hero): 1,500 (75 bb)
BU: 1,500 (75 bb)
SB: 1,500 (75 bb)
BB: 1,500 (75 bb)

Pre-Flop: (57) Hero is CO with 3♦ 3♣
2 players fold, MP calls 20, MP+1 calls 20, 1 fold, Hero raises to 100, 3 players fold, MP calls 80, MP+1 calls 80

Flop: (357) 5♣ 6♠ 3♥ (3 players)
MP checks, MP+1 bets 1,397 (all-in), Hero?

NO Caveat---your Villains shove the nuts most frequently expecting to get called then I fold We always want to use player pool data to decide--- this shove can be 65 64 54 or 77

 

[fundiver199]

Thank you for the comments. So far nobody wants to fold bottom set, and neither did I. This is the result:

CardsChat Poker Hands Converter

Convert your hand history into forum code, plain text or relive your hand and create animated replays

www.cardschat.com

 

[makisaa]

I guess it was the beginning of the game, so it is risky to go all in so early. But with a nice set in your hands it is easier to decide it and it ends with a full house!

 

[steve01991]

call with a hope and prayer

 

[fundiver199]

I guess it was the beginning of the game, so it is risky to go all in so early.

Actually ICM is insignificant in the early game, so its kind of the opposite. At least if your goal is profit rather than entertainment or practice. If you bust in the first hand, that allow you to fire up another game, so in a sense thats better than losing after playing for 30 minutes and still not in the money.

But with a nice set in your hands it is easier to decide it and it ends with a full house!

The more important point is the one, which several people made, and which was also my thought process in real time. That if this guy flopped a set or straight, would he really be so fast to shut his opponents out? Maybe sometimes. But far more often he would either check to the preflop raiser and allow me to C-bet, or come out with a smaller bet, which is more likely to get called. Betting almost 4 times the size of the pot smells more like a "protection bet" or maybe sometimes a draw, and this is exactly, what it was

 

[eetenor]

Actually ICM is insignificant in the early game, so its kind of the opposite. At least if your goal is profit rather than entertainment or practice. If you bust in the first hand, that allow you to fire up another game, so in a sense thats better than losing after playing for 30 minutes and still not in the money.

The more important point is the one, which several people made, and which was also my thought process in real time. That if this guy flopped a set or straight, would he really be so fast to shut his opponents out? Maybe sometimes. But far more often he would either check to the preflop raiser and allow me to C-bet, or come out with a smaller bet, which is more likely to get called. Betting almost 4 times the size of the pot smells more like a "protection bet" or maybe sometimes a draw, and this is exactly, what it was

The great point here is we can reverse engineer shoving for value in spots where we are up against V who would think we would never shove the nuts but who might bet fold to a check raise in a game where most of the player pool has only nutty check raises---not something to do frequently but would work in some spots