$5.40 NL HE MTT: AKo vs BB Shove

[mariussica88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

5.40

Game Options

1. Bounty

Currency

$

At this stage we are 200 players away of the money bubble, I have on my "head" a medium bounty for this stage. The BB is a decent player with VPIP 22 PFR 14 PostFlopAGG 3 after 156 hands played with him.

Do you think second time on turn betting is a mistake? Do you call the river? Does he has a bluffing range there?

Spoiler: My thoughts

I do think that he is not bluffing the river there and he might slow play me, but I did called there, hoping he has a weaker Kx, or Qx, 98, even a weak Ax since he just called/defended against my raise preflop.

GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 2,500/5,000 (750 ante) - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

UTG: 206,549 (41 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 137,627 (28 bb)
MP: 130,140 (26 bb)
MP+1: 288,163 (58 bb)
CO: 100,910 (20 bb)
BU: 76,852 (15 bb)
SB: 402,661 (81 bb)
BB: 380,186 (76 bb)

Pre-Flop: (13,500) Hero is UTG+1 with A♥ K♠
1 fold, Hero raises to 12,500, 5 players fold, BB calls 7,500

Flop: (33,500) J♥ T♠ K♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 12,085, BB calls 12,085

Turn: (57,670) 2♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 24,412, BB calls 24,412

River: (106,494) 2♦ (2 players)
BB bets 92,650, Hero ?

 

[Bhargav]

I don't know if the villain is bluffing. I think you should play too passive or too aggressive with the low stack you have.

you can go check check after the flop and fold to any big raise, saving stack (passive).
you can go all in after the flop (aggressive).

you allowed the villain to come to river cheaply. you allowed him to develop his cards.

 

[Goggelheimer]

BB is more on the tighter side of the player pool. So he could be a reg that is capable to make such a bluff.

But on this stake level the players are normally not so bluff heavy(only if you have seen him doing this more than 2 times you could think he is overbluffing)

This seems to be easy, ask yourself what hands do you beat?
You have only a two pair hand.
You don`t beat full houses (KK perhaps but normally not in the calling range of BB, JJ, TT these are in the calling range, K2s, J2s, T2s), you don´t beat quads 2 (calling range), AQs/o, Q9s also calling range, maybe Q9o (but not so often in the calling range).
Against so many combos, you have a weak bluff catcher.

So an easy fold on this runout.

On the flop the bet size can be bigger 50% or 66 % pot, 1/3 pot is not forcing enough. If this is called, see next street.
Turn barrel with only TPTK/Gutshot draw is not so great on a draw heavy board like this,
pot control is here the option, you are in position vs. BB, so pace down and safe chips.
On any river bet from BB easy fold.
This line would have saved some chips.

I think it's not the bluffing range that matters, it's the calling range.

Hope is not rational play, that´s more a luckgambling move.