$3.30 NL HE MTT: 65s in BU New Year Series

[mariussica88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

3.30

Currency

$

This is a regular $3.30 New Year Series tournament. I have only some info on the SB ( 12 hands played VPIP 17 RFI 8 ) and CO is his first hand at this table.

Is calling a good decision here?

Spoiler: My thoughts

I do think long term is a good decision.

pokerstars, $2.94 + $0.36 - Hold'em No Limit - 40/80 (12 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 9,262 (116 bb)
UTG+1: 7,029 (88 bb)
MP: 6,659 (83 bb)
MP+1: 5,000 (63 bb)
CO: 5,000 (63 bb)
BU (Hero): 3,615 (45 bb)
SB: 3,920 (49 bb)
BB: 5,036 (63 bb)

Pre-Flop: (216) Hero is BTN with 6♥ 5♥
4 players fold, CO calls 80, Hero raises to 248, SB calls 208, 1 fold, CO calls 168

Flop: (920) 8♥ J♥ 4♦ (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets 469, SB raises to 3,660 (all-in), CO folds, Hero calls 2,886 (all-in)

Turn: (7,630) 9♣ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (7,630) T♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 7,630

Spoiler: Showdown

Showdown:
SB shows J♦ A♣ (a pair of Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 58%, Flop: 52%, Turn: 73%, River: 100%)

BU (Hero) shows 6♥ 5♥ (high card, Jack)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 42%, Flop: 48%, Turn: 27%, River: 0%)

SB wins 7,630

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Because it was a CO limp, and you are BTN, I am ok isolating with 54s, but this is the bottom on my range. Any worse suited hand or 54o I would just fold. Its also an option to limp behind, but isolating gives more ways to win the pot.

Flop
You flopped a flushdraw and a gutshot and has no showdown value, so definitely a hand to C-bet. I also like not going super small, because you want to get some folds. Facing the check-jam from SB its a simple math decision. Its 2.886 to win 7.630, which mean, that you need almost 40% equity to break even.

And I think, this is questionable even with a 12 out draw. Part of his range with be two pair and sets, where he has a redraw to a full house. Another part of his range will be better flushdraws. And while you have pair outs against those, you only have 9 outs rather than 12, and he has a redraw to a flush or a better pair. So even though it sucks, I prefer to fold here and live to fight another day.

If you want to go deeper into this, you can plug the hand into Equilab and play around with his range to see, what assumptions you have to make to make this profitable. However we cant do this while playing (its against the TOS of Pokerstars and will result in a warning), and therefore I gave you my analysis without using software.

Results
So he had AJ without Ah, and this is actually the kind of hand, we wanted to see, since all 12 outs are live, and he dont have a redraw. Against this particular hand calling was profitable, but against his overall range I think, its questionable.

 

[mariussica88]

I did put it in the Equilab and played with some opponents ranges but I did put only my exact hand (6h5h)....and always I have at least 45% equity and the best was 52%.

But when I did put my hole range it was considerable lower 30-39%. This is the reason why I posted this hand.

 

[fundiver199]

I did put it in the Equilab and played with some opponents ranges but I did put only my exact hand (6h5h)....and always I have at least 45% equity and the best was 52%.

Then you must be assigning him a really wide range. I made just one calculation using, what I think is a pretty realistic range consisting of all sets, J8s, AJ, KJ and 6 combos of the best flushdraws. I think, this is a lot more reasonable than assuming, he check-jam with anything, that remotely connects with the board. For instance I think, T9s other than of hearts is far more likely to be played as a check-call, and so is any JX worse than KJ. And then you only have 40% equity, which considering ICM and "lost opportunity" in a soft tournament (unless you rebuy) makes it a losing call.

 

[kdmeteor]

I don't like the half pot bet, looks uninspired. I'd look for reasons to go smaller or larger (in this case, with the board being connected, probably larger). Result is the same (which is, you have to do the math and then decide if you're priced in).