$200 NL HE MTT: Bubble dilemma

[Rajten]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

200

Currency

$

It is live tournament 93 buy ins, 10 player left, 9 in the money

Avarage stack 25 bb

Hj 37bb, CO 15bb, Bu 13bb, hero on sb 18bb, bb 40bb. On second table the lowest stack 12bb

Hj raises 2bb, 2x folds, hero on sb AJo ??? How should I play it.

The payment structure is similar to poker stars. 9th got 430, 1st 4600, 2nd 3600, and I don't remember next

 

[fundiver199]

I would definitely not call but either jam or fold. I would guess, that AJo is near the bottom of the Nash rejamming range, and for that reason the decision can be based on, what you know about HJ, and how important it is for you to lock up a mincash. If HJ is opening a ton and also folding to 3-bets, then go for it. If its the opposite, then fold and let someone else put their stack at risk first.

 

[Yanko57]

I would definitely not call but either jam or fold. I would guess, that AJo is near the bottom of the Nash rejamming range, and for that reason the decision can be based on, what you know about HJ, and how important it is for you to lock up a mincash. If HJ is opening a ton and also folding to 3-bets, then go for it. If its the opposite, then fold and let someone else put their stack at risk first.

Exactly what I would have said. I really appreciate your detailed and spot on answers @fundiver199 .

 

[5TR8 FLUSH]

I agree with Fundiver. Jam or fold depending on your read of the HJ. If you haven't played enough with HJ, easy fold.

 

[fundiver199]

I plugged the hand into ICMizer now with the small change, that I made it a 45-man SnG with 8 remaining and 7 places paying, since there is no ready made payout structure with 9 places paying. This should not make a huge difference though, and it also makes the simulation a bit easier, since now everyone are on the same table. I entered the stack sizes given by OP and added 12BB for UTG, 20BB for MP and 30BB for MP+1. I also assumed, there was an ante of 1BB, since this is typical of most live tournaments these days.

With these assumptions ICMizer actually has AJo as a fold, so I was incorrect in assuming, it would be the bottom of the Nash rejamming range. It is close though, since a jam only loses 0,07% of the price pool. However ICMizer has HJ calling with a very narrow range of TT+, AK. If he also call with AQ, then the jam becomes significant worse now losing 0,59% of the price pool. ICMizer also has HJ opening a somewhat snug range of 18% of hands. If he is opening wider like 30%, because he is trying to play the "chip bully" role, then AJo does become a jam, but its still only breakeven.

So to sum it up a jam here is somewhere between breakeven and significantly losing, depending on how HJ play. And by the way BB also has Hero covered, so if he is a bit of a calling station, then jamming also becomes worse. So all in all the best decision here is to fold because of the rather strong ICM-pressure, which Hero is under as a mid stack on the bubble. But if Hero jammed, its not like, its the biggest mistake ever.

 

[Conic10Poker]

ICM bubble here is an easier decision for me to fold in this spot, then lets say if there were still 20-25 players left. With 20-25 players left my decision may be different because I'm not looking to just limp ITM with a short stack and not have a lot of room to maneuver. However here, being in the SB, and next hand being on the BTN and having position with 18BBs (still plenty to work with), I would rather pick a better spot to get ITM and make a run at top $$. I think too many players think they need to JAM any Ax hand when under 20 BBs, and that's just not the case. 18 BBs is still enough to play with, and with the BB still left to act, and has the entire table covered at 40BBs, a fold is the right play because your JAM has to get through two players. FOLD and pick a better spot!

 

[eetenor]

It is live tournament 93 buy ins, 10 player left, 9 in the money

Avarage stack 25 bb

Hj 37bb, CO 15bb, Bu 13bb, hero on sb 18bb, bb 40bb. On second table the lowest stack 12bb

Hj raises 2bb, 2x folds, hero on sb AJo ??? How should I play it.

The payment structure is similar to Poker Stars. 9th got 430, 1st 4600, 2nd 3600, and I don't remember next

Solver says shove- first pays only 10x 9th though if the payout was wider 15 or 20x then easy shove without needing to clarify HJ nittiness. At this payout folding is not unreasonable especially if we are bankroll building. We can even flat if the HJ will be passive post and be under bluffing when they bet. We would need those reads to flat though

Study tip when looking at solver outputs always remember the solver chooses the highest EV preflop action based on V playing perfectly post flop
at 17bb symmetric stacks the EV for calling with AJ is 1.3 against a perfect player- shove is better at 1.65 but calling knowing our V under bluff and over value hands is a viable option to protect our min cash possibilities and still get 1.3 ev potentially

GTO WIZ free version allows you to check strategy plus EV---it is the best free study aid you can get