$20 NL HE MTT: CO vs BB | AKs - 6 max

[mariussica88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

20

Currency

$

This is a special $20 tournament that is specifically for Romanian players ( the buy-ins are tickets given by GGPoker if you make a deposit - part of a promotion that they are running now ). At this point in the tournament we are 410 players left and 332 get into the money places.
The pre-flop action was CO raise and BB calls, on the flop I c-bet and BB calls. What I want to ask you guys is this:
1. On the turn is ok to still bet or checking back is a better option?
2. Here is folding an option?

My thinking here was that I was ahead all the time, but there is also a possibility that he has a weaker Ax or even 2 pairs, but even against his range I think I can call here.



GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - 500/1,000 (125 ante) - 6 players


UTG: 15,822 (16 bb)
MP: 28,141 (28 bb)
CO (Hero): 35,148 (35 bb)
BU: 45,487 (45 bb)
SB: 66,842 (67 bb)
BB: 48,179 (48 bb)

Pre-Flop: (2,250) Hero is CO with K♠ A♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to 2,000, 2 players fold, BB calls 1,000

Flop: (5,250) J♦ A♦ 8♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 2,678, BB calls 2,678

Turn: (10,606) 4♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 6,576, BB raises to 42,376, Hero calls 23,769 (all-in)

River: (71,296) 4♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 71,296

Spoiler

Showdown:
BB shows A♥ 8♦ (two pair, Aces and Eights)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 25%, Flop: 70%, Turn: 68%, River: 100%)

CO (Hero) shows K♠ A♠ (two pair, Aces and Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 75%, Flop: 30%, Turn: 32%, River: 0%)

BB wins 71,296

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
With stacks this deep I would make more than just a min-raise, especially since there are no reshove stacks behind you. Not the biggest problem in the world but still worth mentioning.

Flop
Pretty standard spot to bet for value. Its up for debate, if half pot is the most effective size, but again its not hugely important.

Turn
Obviously there are still many worse hands, that can call, like A9-AT, diamonds, JX of spades, T9 etc. However when you bet this size on the flop and turn, there is around a pot sized bet left for the river, and what is then the plan? Are you checking back a blank river? It is quite conservative, but there is an argument to check back here for pot control, especially since the bubble is getting near. And then obviously call most river bets or bet for value if checked to.

As played I guess, you have to call it off with the nut flushdraw and TPTK. But its a bit of a vomit spot, since turn check-raises on A high boards are extremely underbluffed. We might talk ourselfes into thinking, that this could be worse AX or some kind of draw, but the truth is, this is almost always going to be two pair or a set, and if we are against that kind of hand, we are actually not getting the right odds to draw. But I would also not have been able to fold this in real time.

Spoiler
Yeah he had it. Not surpriced.

 

[eetenor]

This is a great hand to study exploit poker and how we reverse engineer how our Villains play their hands and not ranges which is what makes them exploitable.
How do we study it methodically?
Step 1 Preflop BB will have what range for a min raise?
Step 2 Flop who's flop is this BB or CO?
Step 3 What range does the BB call this flop bet with-----GTO Wizard one hand a day is good for this post flop but you can build your own ranges in Equilab for free you can then look at equities on all streets by entering the flop and adjusting BB range.
A good study tip is to use the free gto wizard preflop ranges and put them in equilab for free and enter the flop and then adjust V's range to what we expect them to call this is great for looking at exploitable players.

Step 4 What range does our V check raise? This is where we have to take the time to think about value XR and bluff XR ranges. Does this V even have a naked bluff range? If not we can assume they are value heavy or at the very least have a Pair plus flush draw as a semi bluff.

Building on the above idea of no naked bluffs but some pair plus flush draw why did they check raise turn and not flop? How did the 4s increase their equity so that now they have a combo draw that wants to play for stacks? This is where we use our blockers. A natural combo draw semi bluff would be the AXss but we block that and we block Kxss so no strong flush draw combos.

This allows us to narrow the V's range to unbalanced value
So we would put V's value range into Equilab and see if we have the equity to call. If yes how much equity because if we are more skilled than our V we want to over fold to stack protect in MTT vs weak fields.

I have not looked yet at the results

A8 so we had the equity to call vs that hand but we want to check the range equity- that is mostly a value range.

 

[fundiver199]

A8 so we had the equity to call vs that hand but we want to check the range equity- that is mostly a value range.

In chip EV we had just enough equity, but factoring in ICM with the looming bubble, it was a negative EV call against their exact hand. But again I am not blaming Hero for calling it off, because it is really difficult to lay down TPTK and the nut flushdraw on the turn to a pot sized bet. Which is why, for me the more important point of this hand is the idea, we dont always have to go after thin value, when we are under high ICM pressure. It is ok to play for more pot control and look to win some small or medium sized pots without risking all our chips.