$2.20 NL HE MTT: Bounty Hunter three-handed on a draw-heavy turn

[puzzlefish]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

2.20

Game Options

1. Bounty
2. Turbo

Currency

$

I think I should have just shoved for this hand pre-flop, but here it is for your consideration.

We are in the money in an 8 seat bounty hunter game - 56 left out of 240+. In other words this means nothing and we have made poverty cash with a couple bounties to make it a bit sweeter.

Blinds 1500/3000

Hero - SB - 58k -
Villain 1 - BB - 125k
Villain 2 - MP - 78k
Other players are much smaller stacks except for maybe one more around 60k.

-preflop-

Folds around to Villain 2 who raises to 10k.
Hero calls. (I figured if I jammed here I would be getting into a massive multi-way pot because it was that kind of table. Downside of calling is that the big stack to my left gets a good price to call with ATC. )

Villain 1 calls.

-flop- 30k


Hero checks.
Villain 1 checks.
Villain 2 checks.

-turn-


Hero is all-in.
Villain 1 calls.
Villain 2 calls.

I think that for sure I had to jam on the turn.

 

[canbora]

pffff.. ok, MTT PKO is my jam. buttt, as I usually say. If the hand is even here its not so clean cut and dry. I'l admit this is a tough on. I'll also admit, that if you set the entire hand aside except for the turn, yeah.. yeah, Absolutely 110% you have to jam here. Top Top with the nut flush draw. This is the exact scenario I get in all the time. I jam with the best hand, I get called by someone has SOMETHING, bust still is dangerous and has outs if not a draw or smaller draw. And you hope your hand holds, you double up plus get a nice little bounty.

Heres the thing. working backwards. You PROBABLY should have jammed on the flop. You had the nut flush daw, overcards, backdoor straight flush draw steel wheel draw, backdoor wheel draw, AND fold equity.

And theres preflop. And its raise of fold. Either you jam here, which honestly. I don't advise, at this stake level with someone leading out with a 3.5x open raise. You're beat. I don't care if its suited or not. Big dog probably has AQ or something, maybe AK. Maybe even 99-JJ. Unless you have specific info on this person being a bluffer I'll say 9/10 chance he has one of the hands I listed, and in that order of likelyhood. I'm going with AQ. (bottom of the list is AJ suited, but I doubt it but point is, you're still beat preflop)

which leads me to my final comment. You may even want to fold this. Given that you basically know your beat that alone is enough to fold. And especially since you have one more player left to act, AND as you said "its that kind of party" I wouldnt want to roll for my tourney life with A10, suited or not, in a threeway pot. Thats no bueno.

Incidently. How I listed things is the order of what I feel is "correctness". Meaning, you probably did the safest and best thing. Like, if I were a GTO bot (haha) I'd list it like this. I'd give the same EV to both jamming on the flop and turn, but I'd give the higher percentage to the turn. Do you know what I mean.? Its like half a notch more correct. So, win or lose, I felt you did the best thing. Good job.

Cant wait to hear the results. These things are like my new drama films. lol

 

[SpanRmonka]

Yeah, I wary of the over 3 X raise pre, most players aren't raising much worse than this, so when combined with the fact you suggest the table is a bit crazy, I don't want to getting too involved with ATs....and A comes and then we're not actually that happy!

But I think calling isn't far off fine either. So since you did, then you pick up a the nut flush draw.....at this stage the only reason I'm checking is to check shove, but he doesn't bite.....so onto the turn we go.

On the turn when you do improve to TPTK with the nut flush draw, then shoving is likely a good move, although it is against 2 players, which could maybe have me adjusting to making it a bluff catcher on a crazy table. But they BOTH call your shove. Large initial raise can look like a small PP who has now hit their set, maybe also another flush draw with pair? If you did lose, sometimes these types of hands can kind of play themselves!

 

[canbora]

Yeah, I wary of the over 3 X raise pre, most players aren't raising much worse than this, so when combined with the fact you suggest the table is a bit crazy, I don't want to getting too involved with ATs....and A comes and then we're not actually that happy!

But I think calling isn't far off fine either. So since you did, then you pick up a the nut flush draw.....at this stage the only reason I'm checking is to check shove, but he doesn't bite.....so onto the turn we go.

On the turn when you do improve to TPTK with the nut flush draw, then shoving is likely a good move, although it is against 2 players, which could maybe have me adjusting to making it a bluff catcher on a crazy table. But they BOTH call your shove. Large initial raise can look like a small PP who has now hit their set, maybe also another flush draw with pair? If you did lose, sometimes these types of hands can kind of play themselves!

Something also to keep in mind, in case others didn't do that math is he has less than 20 bigs. 19.33 BB to be exact. Going off of math alone, AJ suited and better when it folds to you is a shove (we have neither here, but just for a point of reference). But being we got this guy in MP betting out 3.5x, yeah I dont like that.

Also as he said, he doesn't have much in the way of winnings at this point. He's in the money, so PKO or not, he got his money back and probably a few knockouts. So he has SOMETHING. But At this stage you have to worry about moving up. You have to get lucky when you have it. I'm not saying A10 suited preflop shove (in this case) but..yeah on that turn. Thats enough to go on. Should someone turn over a set at this point, then they got us. Hopefully we can improve, which we certainly have odds too. I think we'd have to say "thats poker". What better spot could you hope for? Usually when you have a monster, its a blocker to itself. If you have it, they cant, and they're folding. You want someone to have a suited connector flush draw, drawing dead here. Or K 10. or something like that. People will call it in a PKO, especially at these stakes. They even do it up to $30 buy in.

I wasn't getting at any point here, I was just doing the math conversion to bigs.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
You are to short to have a calling range from SB, and especially against an oversized 3,3BB open. My decision here would depend on, what I know about MP. If he is using this sizing all the time, and he is a bad LAG with stats like VPIP 34 / PFR 26, then I am jamming here and feeling very good about it. There cant be "a massive multiway pot", when only BB is left to act behind you, and even if occationally both players call, there is nothing wrong with playing a 3-way all-in at this stage. There is no ICM pressure, since you are ITM and still far from the final table. Also because its a PKO, ATs will regularly get called by worse hands, so it moves closer to a jam for value than a bluff. However if I did not have information about MP, then I would assume, that a 3,3BB open out of a relatively short stack means a strong range, which ATs is not doing well against, and then I would simply fold.

Flop
Great flop and my plan here would be to check-jam, but it checks through.

Turn
I am 100% betting for value now with TPTK but I think, jamming is overkill. Its for 1,5x the size of the pot, and I think, you might lose some hands, you want to get value from, like worse flushdraws or pair + gutshut type hands. Having the nut flushdraw means, you are less vorried about protection, since some of the cards, that would otherwise be bad, will give you the nut flush. The downside of betting to a non all-in size is, that you are going to be playing the river out of position, so you dont get the chance to check back a bad river card or get the information, that someone made a donk bet. And this is kind of the reason, why we dont call preflop with a sub 20BB stack. Even from BB I would tend to play more of a push-fold strategy against a 3,3BB open.

 

[makisaa]

You are at the last stages of the tournament, where things are getting more and more tighter, so when you choose to play a hand you must be decided for all in. Ad10d is a nice hand for this situation and you better went all in, I think I would do the same.

 

[G0930]

Agreed , your only mistake was not jamming on the turn. GG !

I think I should have just shoved for this hand pre-flop, but here it is for your consideration.

We are in the money in an 8 seat bounty hunter game - 56 left out of 240+. In other words this means nothing and we have made poverty cash with a couple bounties to make it a bit sweeter.

Blinds 1500/3000

Hero - SB - 58k -
Villain 1 - BB - 125k
Villain 2 - MP - 78k
Other players are much smaller stacks except for maybe one more around 60k.

-preflop-

Folds around to Villain 2 who raises to 10k.
Hero calls. (I figured if I jammed here I would be getting into a massive multi-way pot because it was that kind of table. Downside of calling is that the big stack to my left gets a good price to call with ATC. )

Villain 1 calls.

-flop- 30k


Hero checks.
Villain 1 checks.
Villain 2 checks.

-turn-


Hero is all-in.
Villain 1 calls.
Villain 2 calls.

I think that for sure I had to jam on the turn.

 

[G0930]

Btw .."poverty cash"🤣🤣🤣
Love that ! Think I will call it povertycash instead of mincash from now on xD

 

[puzzlefish]

Thanks for the comments everyone. I posted the hand mostly just to see how offside I was with playing ATs in this spot - whether it was at all, or even after the flop. It looked like a decent spot to try to triple up but in poker things are often not as they seem. I think I confirmed through the replies that ATs shouldn't really even be seeing the flop here in sub-20BB SB unless MP is a very very loose player, but with the favourable flop we are probably not getting away from this one.

In this particular hand, Hero was just about dead as soon as BB came along pre-flop with 46o. So it really did not matter after that. I do not even remember what MP had (it was some premium like AK or AQ) but he got knocked out too when the river bricked.

 

[G0930]

Thanks for the comments everyone. I posted the hand mostly just to see how offside I was with playing ATs in this spot - whether it was at all, or even after the flop. It looked like a decent spot to try to triple up but in poker things are often not as they seem. I think I confirmed through the replies that ATs shouldn't really even be seeing the flop here in sub-20BB SB unless MP is a very very loose player, but with the favourable flop we are probably not getting away from this one.

In this particular hand, Hero was just about dead as soon as BB came along pre-flop with 46o. So it really did not matter after that. I do not even remember what MP had (it was some premium like AK or AQ) but he got knocked out too when the river bricked.

Ofc you could have folded AT but from the dynamic on the table you described, I would have considered AT a monster too ^^
I get why you wouldn't push on the flop...why would you with top pair and nuts flush draw..
No reason to protect anything, you got all the outs that matter.

So arguably a mistake not to jam on turn but essentially I think this was just bad luck (Im assuming you lost the hand)

 

[puzzlefish]

Ofc you could have folded AT but from the dynamic on the table you described, I would have considered AT a monster too ^^
I get why you wouldn't push on the flop...why would you with top pair and nuts flush draw..
No reason to protect anything, you got all the outs that matter.

So arguably a mistake not to jam on turn but essentially I think this was just bad luck (Im assuming you lost the hand)

I did jam the turn. And the river bricked. BB flopped a straight.

 

[G0930]

I did jam the turn. And the river bricked. BB flopped a straight.

Suspected a straight from the villain..
So it was only Bad luck after all!
GG

 

[fundiver199]

In this particular hand, Hero was just about dead as soon as BB came along pre-flop with 46o. So it really did not matter after that.

You were not dead with the nut flushdraw. On the flop that is around 40% equity and on the turn around 20%. Its just, that turning top pair did not help you, but at that point you were committed to the pot.

I do not even remember what MP had (it was some premium like AK or AQ) but he got knocked out too when the river bricked.

Yeah thats the thing with that oversized 3,3BB open raise. Without a read its often going to be exactly that kind of hand or some medium pair like 88-JJ. Which is why readless I just fold ATs here and live to fight another day

 

[puzzlefish]

You were not dead with the nut flushdraw. On the flop that is around 40% equity and on the turn around 20%

I know what you are saying. I guess I should have qualified it that Hero was a dog rather than just about dead. Realistically speaking the 40% assumes nobody else holds any diamond, which isn't usually true. It's about -2% for each additional diamond dealt to a player.

 

[fundiver199]

Realistically speaking the 40% assumes nobody else holds any diamond, which isn't usually true. It's about -2% for each additional diamond dealt to a player.

The 40% is with random suit distribution of unknown cards including those dealt to other players involved in the hand. In this case it was 3-handed, which mean, that if neither opponent holds a diamond, you have more than 40% equity, but if they both hold a diamond, it will be less than 40%.