€110 NL HE MTT: Interesting hand in a soft casino tournament

[kdmeteor]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

110

Currency

€

This is a hand from a very soft weekly 100+10 Casino Tournament. I have a stack of 4625 (from a starting stack of 8000). We're at the second blind level with 50/100.

UTG and LJ limp and I have in the HJ. I'm always going to raise this, even with a mediocre hand and a small stack. I make it 500. The SB calls, UTG folds, and the LJ calls. The Villain (SB) is a splashy, unusually aggressive, but very bad player. (There was a later hand where UTG+2 raised big, LJ all-ined over it, and Villain cold-called with A7o.) I am the shortest stack here.

Flop comes (Pot=1600, Stack=4125). SB and LJ check. I bet 425. SB calls and LJ folds.

Turn is (Pot=2450, Stack=3700). SB checks, I bet 1100, and SB calls.

River is (Pot=3650, Stack=2600). SB checks,I move my hand toward my chips, SB demonstrably grabs his chips in a threatening manner, announcing intent to call. I all-in.

Spoiler

Villain immediately folds face down.

Thoughts on my line: On the Flop, I didn't really know what to make of this board and just thought, probably everyone has missed, I have J high, let's bet. On the Turn I would have probably given up, but the gutshot gave me an excuse to continue. I think Villain is the kind of player who calls too wide, so I wanted to set up the River Jam. Since my stack was small, I just thought, what's the smallest amount I can bet now that still "looks big" to maximize my River bet? I'm never betting 1000 (only one chip, looks lazy) and 900 seemed to small, hence my sizing of 1100.

I'm also generally looking for excuses to triple-barrel in live tournaments because in my experience, people almost always believe me. (I think it's a general trend with live players, but probably even more so for me because people tend to perceive me as weak IRL and think I can't bluff. I also want to triple-barrel splashy players even more because they call too much on the first two streets.)

However, the problem with this here is that even with making the Turn bet small-ish, I'm still only shoving the River for about 2/3 pot. I think this makes it likely that an 8 gets stubborn, two pair probably calls, even a 7 might call. think if I had 1500 more chips to start, then I'd be happier with the line I've taken here. Because then I'm shoving for slightly above pot, in which case I think anything worse than a set folds. (I don't think it matters that I don't have many 5s in my range; Villain is just going to play his hand, not mine.) The live tell is whatever imo, it does indicate weakness so makes the Jam better, but I was going to Jam River regardless, so doesn't change anything.

Ranges: (was curious enough to make up some ranges right then, this is 100% just my best guess)

For the Preflop call, I gave Villain this:


(That might seem absolutely crazy to you, and of course it's not good play, but I genuinely think that early in a tournament, this kind of player will play any two cards that he thinks are pretty.)

In that case, he has no pair and no gutshot 40% of the time. (Does that mean he folds to my Flop bet? If he has Ace-high, probably not. Even if he has KQo, he might float, honestly. But he still folds enough that a small bet is better than a check, I think.)

For the River range, I've taken out all hands that made two pair on the Flop because they probably a raise a board this connected, and all sets, and all garbage. I've left in the hands that made 2 pair on the Turn, and I arbitrarily just kicked out some straights but not all because he might call or raise with those. I've left in all flush draws (I think my bets were too small to get them to fold). Result looks like this, where the marked hands are just the clubs, so only 1 combination each.



According to this range, he has a straight 27% of the time and two pair 17%, and a set 1.5%, so set or better about 45%. Top pair 22.5%; top pair or better about 68%. (If you think he's not as crazy and kick out the suited double-gappers, unsuited gappers, and suited Kings from the Preflop range, then at the River he has a straight 32%, two pair 11%, and set 2%)

So how should you play?
Still not sure. I think the line I've taken is not terrible if you think this sizing is enough to fold out most one pairs. But he might not, and in that case, this sizing is too small (if he calls with Top pair or even middle pair, the Jam becomes much worse). You can't really structure three bets such that this doesn't happen, so probably there is no great triple-barrel line.

I think one line that has merit is betting about 1200 on the Flop and giving up or jamming the Turn depending on card (a big Turn bet would fold out most bad pairs and every non-pair, probably most flush draws). Another line, considering the wide preflop range and how poorly it hits this board, could be to bet very big on the Flop (around Pot or higher) and then give up if that doesn't work. You wouldn't need to get a fold 50% of the time since you still have equity with two overcards. I think the absolute worst line you could take would be to play Flop and Turn as I did, and then give up on the River.

But yeah, idk. Usually I don't spend that much time on my hands, but this one was just really interesting to me. Still not sure what's best.

 

[dannystanks]

I like the triple barrel here. This villain really caps his range with this board to some kind of weak pair imo otherwise why would he not raise 2pair + hands for value and protection. Another thing to consider in your spot when you see him cap his range like that is to just over bet the Turn and put the pressure on his weak pair. Good luck!

 

[eetenor]

So you are in games where V do not fold Ax preflop and decide to raise JToff with the idea that they are soo weak that you can control the outcome post flop on most runouts. Great strategy at 100bb cash not as strong in short stack MTT where stack protection vs weak players is +Ev because of future game extra +EV spots--weak players give away equity we do not have to fight them for it. In MTT's that means protecting our stack for those opportunities. You have 46bb at the second level no need to push weak hands vs players who do not fold.

A solid foundation is where we want to build from.



The read on the end was good

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
JTo is not exactly a monster from HJ, and an UTG limp is usually a somewhat stronger range than a late position limp. So I think, I just fold this to be honest with you. Its always ok to take the bottom of your raise first in range from a given seat and fold facing prior limps. I do prefer raising over limping behind though.

Flop
This is not a good flop to C-bet, because its low and connected. Its also a multiway pot, and you pretty much missed completely. I guess, you have a backdoor straightdraw, but thats clutching at straws. So I prefer to check back and basically not invest any more in this hand, unless I turn top pair.

Turn
You picked up a gutshot, and as played I guess, its ok to continue betting, as long as the plan is to jam most rivers.

River
You got a good scare card to empty the clip, so as played I think, this is the play.

Results
So it worked, but I am not crazy about the way, this whole hand was played. We beat bad players by getting lots of value, when we have the best hand, and they cant fold. bluffing them is generally a losing strategy, even though it worked this time. I should say though, that I play online, and its possible, that bad live players tend to fold more, because they are playing for more money, and if they bust, they have to wait a week for the next tournament etc. But even so I cant imagine, that this makes money in the long run. You were quite lucky for instance, that this "very aggressive" player did not choose to commit on the turn by check-jamming.

 

[kdmeteor]

Thanks for chiming in.

We beat bad players by getting lots of value, when we have the best hand, and they cant fold. Bluffing them is generally a losing strategy, even though it worked this time.

Hmm, so. Here's what I'd say.

There's online players, who are pretty good. There's live cash players, who are meh/decent (well actually, a spectrum from weak to a few pros). And then there's live tournament players, who are almost all extremely weak, at least at my place. None of the strong cash players want to play the tournament because it's too low buy in. Just today there was a guy at my table who I think played poker for money for the first time.

I think in general, the way to make money from these players 100% is to bluff. Bet and bet and keep betting until you encounter resistance (at which point, overfold massively). These people play poker like blackjack. We all limp so we can see the cards in the middle. Do the numbers on those cards match the numbers on my cards? No? Okay, I fold. You would be shocked at the amount of bluffs I'm getting through in this tournament. If I'm 4 way and the Flop is something like QQ5 and I'm in late-ish position, I will stab every time and instead of punishing this play with a raise, which would have to work around 50% of the time and will work 80% of the time, everyone just folds if they haven't hit it. Value betting strong hands is fine, but the real exploit is in making people fold if they don't have a pair, and occasionally fold one pair if you can sell something better.

JTo is not exactly a monster from HJ, and an UTG limp is usually a somewhat stronger range than a late position limp.

Not with tournament players. I can't remember the last time I've even see a limp-reraise in the tournament. I have seen two yesterday in just the ~90 minutes of cash I've played after the tournament finished. (Both from the same player.)

Here's how I'd argue for opening this. If you filter your data base for just opens (whether over limpers or first in, doesn't matter) where you don't get 3bet, I think you'll see that it's just all green numbers, and substantially so. By far the worst thing about opening non-premium hands is getting raised, and if you knew you won't get raised, you can extend your ranges a lot. Well, at this tournament, there's like zero 3 betting, so blast it! If I'm geting raised with this hand, I can't get my cards to the muck fast enough. Even if I had a much better hand like QJs or AJo, I would just fold to a 3bet.

You were quite lucky for instance, that this "very aggressive" player did not choose to commit on the turn by check-jamming.

I don't think so. When I said aggressive you were probably thinking about things like having raising ranges on the Flop and Turn. But aggressive just means that if he opens and misses the flop, he barrels (whereas most live tournament players check). I think when I'm the aggressor, he'll just play like everyone else except that he calls more -- which again just makes me want to triple-barrel him since he'll get to the later streets with a lot of garbage.

I think checking the flop would be a mistake, it's just too likely that both opponents have missed. I would check if the flop cards were a little bigger, like say T96 rather than 763 (assuming I've still missed the flop in this case).