$11 NL HE MTT: KQs | UTG2 vs BB

[mariussica88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

11

Game Options

1. Bounty

Currency

$

BB stats after 68 hands: VPIP 27 PFR 15 Limp 3 Cold Call 23 and 3-bet 3.57

I want to ask you guys what is your option here on the river?

pokerstars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 300/600 (60 ante) - 8 players

UTG: 18,460 (31 bb)
UTG+1: 19,791 (33 bb)
MP (Hero): 102,151 (170 bb)
MP+1: 36,595 (61 bb)
CO: 57,615 (96 bb)
BU: 25,075 (42 bb)
SB: 18,191 (30 bb)
BB: 20,662 (34 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,380) Hero is MP with Q♠ K♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to 1,500, 4 players fold, BB calls 900

Flop: (3,780) 2♠ J♦ A♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 1,285, BB calls 1,285

Turn: (6,350) 2♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (6,350) K♦ (2 players)
BB bets 3,175, MP (Hero)?

Spoiler: my thoughts

I do think that calling is an option here....this river card is a good card to bluff since all the draws are getting there....but also what cards my opponent has here...he just calls preflop so this is what a player with his stats might call:


So Ax, Jx, are most likely....but he decides to bet only on the river....and I think that 1/2 pot here is a value bet....and what hands beat me here.....any Ax, any diamonds, any 2x, Q10....Kx we split ( except KJ )....I basically beat only Jx hands, and smaller pairs.

So yes maybe fold is better.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard open.

Flop
C-bet and sizing seems fine with a gutshot, BDFD and the nut nothing.

Turn
I would also check back this card, since you did not pick up any equity, and the 2 is not a scary card to either an ace or a jack.

River
The classic case of missing our draw but making a pair instead. I dont think, any hand worse than top pair is betting for value on this runout, so your second pair is a bluff catcher. You did go pretty small on the flop, so he could have some random out of position floats, which are now bluffing. You are also getting 3:1, so you only need to be good 1 in 4 times. But on the negative side you dont block anything, that might bet for value, other than QT. So I lean towards a fold here, but I dont think, calling is terrible either. I would call here with any ace though, since all AX now chop except A2, AJ and AK.

 

[eetenor]

BB stats after 68 hands: VPIP 27 PFR 15 Limp 3 Cold Call 23 and 3-bet 3.57

I want to ask you guys what is your option here on the river?

PokerStars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 300/600 (60 ante) - 8 players

UTG: 18,460 (31 bb)
UTG+1: 19,791 (33 bb)
MP (Hero): 102,151 (170 bb)
MP+1: 36,595 (61 bb)
CO: 57,615 (96 bb)
BU: 25,075 (42 bb)
SB: 18,191 (30 bb)
BB: 20,662 (34 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,380) Hero is MP with Q♠ K♠
2 players fold, Hero raises to 1,500, 4 players fold, BB calls 900

Flop: (3,780) 2♠ J♦ A♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 1,285, BB calls 1,285

Turn: (6,350) 2♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (6,350) K♦ (2 players)
BB bets 3,175, MP (Hero)?

Spoiler: my thoughts

I do think that calling is an option here....this river card is a good card to bluff since all the draws are getting there....but also what cards my opponent has here...he just calls preflop so this is what a player with his stats might call:
View attachment 366193

So Ax, Jx, are most likely....but he decides to bet only on the river....and I think that 1/2 pot here is a value bet....and what hands beat me here.....any Ax, any diamonds, any 2x, Q10....Kx we split ( except KJ )....I basically beat only Jx hands, and smaller pairs.

So yes maybe fold is better.

Vs standard V river is a fold. The Wiz folds your hand but calls the others but our V do not have enough bluffs on these types of rivers.

The Wiz has you betting turn big 78.9% of the time with your hand it bets 8bb into 9.8bb pot.
You have all the nuts here and if you do bet this turn it is polarized so large sizing.
This is an effective sizing vs standard V as they will fold some Ax and other pairs to this bet. Also it allows us to showdown our Kx on river often and our V seldom attack this sizing so we do not need to worry about being bluff raised.