$10 SnG - Hands which make you go "urrrrgh" and "wtf" respectively

[Dorkus Malorkus]

$10 SnG - Hands which make you go "urrrrgh" and "wtf" respectively

#1

MP3 is a donk and is calling the initial raise with all sorts of crap here, so I figure it's a nice spot to squeeze. MP1 has done nothing particularly out of line so far.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (Format: Plain Text)

UTG (t955)
UTG+1 (t1310)
MP1 (t1675)
MP2 (t1390)
MP3 (t1595)
Hero (t1425)
Button (t905)
SB (t2295)
BB (t1950)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Th, Ts.
2 folds, MP1 raises to t120, 1 fold, MP3 calls t120, Hero raises to t500, 3 folds, MP1 raises to t1675, MP3 folds, Hero regrets trying the squeeze play and...?

#2

Early on, no real reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (Format: Plain Text)

CO (t1280)
Button (t205)
SB (t1360)
BB (t1445)
Hero (t3015)
UTG+1 (t1040)
MP1 (t3250)
MP2 (t1905)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Jc, Jh.
Hero raises to t90, 2 folds, MP2 calls t90, 1 fold, Button raises to t205 (all-in), 2 folds, Hero raises to t500, MP2 raises to t1905, Hero really is starting to hate life now and...?


Part of me doesn't want to get everything in so early on in these two examples without a massive hand, but another part of me thinks, "The pot is big enough, let's gamboooooool".

 

[F Paulsson]

Hand 1: Hero calls. You're up against AK or AQ often enough to accept 2:1 odds (and some portion of the time it will be 8-8 or 9-9 as well).

Hand 2: Same reasoning as hand 1, really. Here you can throw in TT as a hand you're likely to beat that he might do this with. Pot is big, it's still early (get knocked out, fire up another one) and you're getting decent odds. J-J is a hand I'm willing to put all my chips into the middle with in those conditions.

I wouldn't expect to be ahead the majority of the time, but I'd expect to be so more than one time in three.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

hand 1-fold, you're either up against JJ+ or AK, **MAYBE** AQ IF villian is a uberdonk. you're still behind the range

hand 2-fold, but its much closer-- villian may be squeezing with worse than JJ

you have a definate skill advantage- dont go out with JJ unless you're already too invested in the pot to justify folding, and in both of these examples you will still have plenty of chips if you fold

 

[F Paulsson]

6 ways to make JJ, 6 ways to make QQ, 6 ways to make KK, 6 ways to make AA.

16 ways to make AK.

We're ahead of 16 possible holdings, and we're behind 24. Against the 24 that we're behind, we're about 5:1 dogs. Against the 16 hands we're ahead of, we're only about 6:4 favorites. Is it worth a call?

There's 2295 in the pot (I forgot to include the blinds and I don't want to redo the calculation, but anyway), and it's 1120 for us to call. The EV calculation, if the only hands villain would do this with is JJ, QQ, KK, AA and AK, is:

EV(AK) + EV(JJ+)

EV(AK) = P(AK) * ( P(win)*potsize - P(lose)*cost of calling ) =
= (16/40) * (0.6*2295 - 0.4*1120)

EV(JJ+) = P(JJ+) * ( P(win)*potsize - P(lose)*cost of calling ) =
= (24/40) * (0.15*2295 - 0.85*1120)

Sum: 6.95.

Chris has an expected value of $7. That's pretty damn slim, but here, we're not even including the possibility that villain is donkish at all, nor that he's bluffing. The fact that we're above zero even with the fairly tight range that we've given him makes it a call for me. I expect to be shown JJ+ reasonably often when I make the call, but I expect my hand to hold up against AK/AQ/bluffs often enough to make it worth it.

Going out with TT+ early on in the tournament isn't so awful. It's worse when it happens on the bubble.

Edit: Forgot to add - if we throw in AQ in the mix, our EV goes up to $270, and it's no longer even a close call.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Unimportant results-type things (from memory).

#1 - Villain has AK, my hand holds up.

#2 - MP2 has AA (????????), shortstack has some random crap like 76 sooted. AA holds up.