$10 2-table SnG: tough river decision w/ KK

[ChuckTs]

So far, I raised the first hand with AKs and everyone folded. To my delight, I get KK the second hand, it's folded to me, and this happens:

pokerstars Game #7731453163: Tournament #39534684, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2007/01/02 - 16:20:16 (ET)
Table '39534684 2' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Heiffer1 (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: bobbyhoof (1490 in chips)
Seat 3: The Hish 24 (1480 in chips)
Seat 4: sleepydays (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: kirkteresa (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: trpo1106 (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: ChuckTs (1530 in chips)
Seat 8: msmusik64 (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: Rotax111 (1500 in chips)
The Hish 24: posts small blind 10
sleepydays: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Ks Kd]
kirkteresa: folds
trpo1106: folds
trpo1106 is sitting out
ChuckTs: raises 60 to 80
msmusik64: folds
Rotax111: folds
Heiffer1: folds
bobbyhoof: folds
The Hish 24: folds
sleepydays: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [8s 8d 7d]
sleepydays: checks
ChuckTs: bets 100
sleepydays: calls 100
*** TURN *** [8s 8d 7d] [4h]
sleepydays: bets 100
ChuckTs: raises 200 to 300
sleepydays: calls 200
*** RIVER *** [8s 8d 7d 4h] [6h]
sleepydays: bets 1020 and is all-in
ChuckTs:...

Busted draw? Made hand? Stone cold bluff?
I think this exact type of situation might hold one of my biggest leaks - not being able to lay down a hand...

 

[gord962]

eek

Well, I think you walked straight into a trap. Any 8 or 5 has you beat, as well as 9-T. For some reason I smell 8-4os??? With only $480 in the pot I think I lay this one down and get my chips back later.

EDIT: Actually, now that I read a bit more carefully, I think I have notes on sleepydays. This is most likely a trap as I played them on the weekend on a $10 - 18 ppl SNG. If I am not mistaken he/she cracked my AA with a flush on the turn and pushed on the river. I'll check my notes when I get home.

 

[tenbob]

That bet dosnt look like it wants to be called. First thought, call.

Thinking a little about it, youve shown nice aggression in the hand, and the pre-flop raise was small enought to encourage calls from all pairs, all aces, and actually any 2 in postion if the player is strong enough. He could have anything from 88 to AA, to 22 here, but hes in postion, its early in the sit and go, fold.

A couple of blind levels later its a no-brainer call every time.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Hand doesn't make sense.

Villain check-calls flop, then leads a ragged turn and calls a raise before open-shoving the river? It just seems really odd - if he is slowplaying a monster hand then he probably checks the nothing turn card expecting you to bet again and makes a small value bet on the river.

Look at the possibilities. Ok, villain could have 5x, but there are very few combinations of 5x that he's justified in calling the flop lead and turn raise with. Plus unless you have AA/KK and can't let go his river push is only getting called by hands that either split the pot or beat him. He could have an 8, but I think if he's checked a 2-flush 2-straight flop with trips he's probably going to check the blank turn too. He could have a boat (66?), but is he really shoving such an action-killing river with a boat? Maybe I'm giving the average $10 donk too much credit but you have to make a small value bet with a boat on that river, because a shove is folding too many hands (just as it is unlikely villain has a 5, it is also unlikely you have a 5 from the prior action). He could be on a busted diamond draw - the flop check-call, turn blocking bet and huge river bluff seem to fit reasonably well with this.

That all said, the crux of the matter is the river shove (at the risk of stating the obvious) either really wants a call or really doesn't. I think the vast majority of the time you will be either seeing a straight+ (again, despite what I've said, a $10 donk's play doesnt have to make sense) or absolutely nothing. The hand has played out bizzarely enough to tempt me into a reluctant call though, as I think villain's bluff % is huge here.

Did villain instashove the river? I'm not one for putting much emphasis on online tells but if he instashoved the river I'm definitely calling because it's just one suspicious play too many.

 

[ChuckTs]

Well here was my thought process:

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Ks Kd]
kirkteresa: folds
trpo1106: folds
trpo1106 is sitting out
ChuckTs: raises 60 to 80
msmusik64: folds
Rotax111: folds
Heiffer1: folds
bobbyhoof: folds
The Hish 24: folds
sleepydays: calls 60 Could be anything
*** FLOP *** [8s 8d 7d]
sleepydays: checks
ChuckTs: bets 100
sleepydays: calls 100 7? flush draw? 8? random cards?
*** TURN *** [8s 8d 7d] 4♥
sleepydays: bets 100
ChuckTs: raises 200 to 300 testing the waters...
sleepydays: calls 200 That call = no 8 in my eyes. After check-calling the flop, he should be putting in either a check-raise on the turn, or reraising here. My thoughts are leaning towards a small pair, 7s or lower, or he's still drawing.
*** RIVER *** [8s 8d 7d 4h] 6♥
sleepydays: bets 1020 and is all-in realll out of line bet. As TB mentioned, this really is screaming FOLD FOLD!!! but by the odds, is there too much out there that can beat me for me to call???

I think the correct play is to fold...the blinds are still tiny, and like Gord mentioned, this is only a 400+ chip pot.

I called, he showed K2h, and I won. Bad call though??

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

umm i count 970 in the pot by the river yo

....and did he instapush?

Seriously, I follow a general rule with unknowns - the less sense their play makes, the more likely it is they're full of crap. Of course we can augment this with actual reads at a later stage (it's possible villain is just a horrible player and is playing a flopped gutshot having called a pfr out of position with 45o, but we can give more credence to this possiblity with a 'villain is a donkey call station' read).

 

[ChuckTs]

umm i count 970 in the pot by the river yo

lol...well I can't count. That gives a little more credit to my call i guess.

....and did he instapush?

Hmm...not really. Can't remember how long he took, but it definitely felt like a LOOK AT ME I SWEAR I HAVE A 5!!!-type push...

 

[blankoblanco]

Good call... tough one though. I think the only hand that beats you and makes much sense would be something like T9. Maybe even T9 diamonds, where the player chose not to play his monster draw aggressively on the flop and just try to hit cheaply. That being said, I've made calls in situations like this and been shown winning hands that made very little sense. Donkaments lol. With no reads, it's really hard for me to call here, but it's also really hard to fold. I lean toward folding this early.

 

[zebranky]

56 chevy...

I'm gonna guess - and this is the only thing that makes sense to me with the opponents betting, but I can see a whole ranger of donk betting habits beating you...

56 suited, possible diamonds.
suited connectors - a very likely limp-call on the PF.
flopped an open-ended draw (and possible flush draw), he'll call easy and wait to hit.
Turn - made the straight - leads out to insure money, but figures he's the nut, and when you raised, he's thinking to let you do the betting on the river.
River - uh-oh! his two-in-the-middle straight is now a lot weaker - and any 5 that you have is good enough to chop. Better push, in case you have a straight that you think is "weaker" than his.

Of course, any 8 or two pair might do basically the same, except for the all-in.

I say fold it - there are too many straights or even an 8 out there to hurt you - although there's a good chance he thinks you were trying to bully the pot 2 hands in a row and is just making a show of force to put you in your place. It's just too early to tell, so take the conservative line.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

wow, i would fold quick

 

[gord962]

umm i count 970 in the pot by the river yo

Quite right, sir. What I meant was Chuck has only put $480 in. Guess I should pay more attention lol

Good read Chuck.

If he pushed on the turn I would have called but I just couldn't call on the river with so many scare cards available.

Is it just me or is there more donk plays like this (pushing with K2 on the river with only what's on the board) at the $10 SNGs than the $5 SNGs??