Underdog Fantasy Pick'Em Predictions

[Mr_Nuisance]

Hello Avid Sports bettors!

I wanted to start this thread to present my predictions for Pick'em lines that are provided on Underdog Fantasy. Pick'em bets on Underdog Fantasy are just like typical Over/Under bets on a specific player's stat line for the game that is listed. Underdog requires you to make at least to picks to submit a bet slip, and you can make a maximum of 5 picks on one bet slip.

There are different multipliers depending on how many picks you make on a bet slip. If you pick just 2 different player lines, you receive a multiplier of 3x your wager if both of your picks are correct. For 3 picks, 4 picks, and 5 picks, your multiplier would be 6x, 10x, and 20x respectively.

Needless to say, making just two solid picks to secure a 3x your wager is a smart strategy, but that is not why we are here right? We want to hit that 20x as often as possible!

The point of this thread will be to give the community my personal predictions for players on specific days to allow the community to sweat the picks with me, and I will keep a record of how my picks do so you can personally audit how trustworthy of a picker I am.

For the record: I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER BY ANY MEANS. PLEASE DO NOT USE MY ADVICE AS ANY FINANCIAL ADVICE AND BET RESPONSIBLY.

I will also state that Underdog Fantasy Pick'em does NOT operate in the following states: Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana,
Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Tennessee, Washington


Having said all of that, I am very excited to start this off! I will try to post prediction at least three times a week and will increase the amount if this thread gets a lot of support! I will also make sure to include NFL playoff predictions as well for the rest of the season. I recommend that if you decide to follow my bets, you should try to lock in your own bets with similar lines to what I suggest before any lines change. However, if the line favors the bet, it is most likely still okay to take, but proceed with your own caution. As stated before, I am not a professional gambler in any sense.

If you would like to support me by using my referral code for Underdog Fantasy, it will be posted below, where you can get a 100% deposit bonus up to $100 on your first deposit! (For example: You deposit $100, Underdog will match that and give you another $100, giving you a grand total of $200 in the App).

Look out for my predictions for the Upcoming weekend of NFL football and hope to see us all succeed!

Referral link: https://play.underdogfantasy.com/mrnuisance
Referral Code: MRNUISANCE

 

[Mr_Nuisance]

1/22/2022 Pick'em Plays

For this first set of predictions in this thread, I have quite a few good lines that I believe could see some value over the upcoming weekend! I will try to rate how I feel about any certain picks, as well as why I made certain picks if it seems like an odd choice to make.

Typically I do tend to bet overs as opposed to unders, while unders might generally be the better bet to make in many instances. However, I like to watch a player shoot for a specific number and then not worry the rest of the game as opposed to stressing a whole game wondering if a certain player is gonna make a miracle catch and put them over the total.

Without further ado, here are my picks for 1/22-1/23!

1. Deebo Samuel OVER 93.5 Rush + Rec Yards

Deebo has been seeing alot of this dual role over the season, and I don't expect it to slow down when they go to face the Packers on Saturday. It is going to be a cold one in Green Bay, but since I expect the 49ers to be playing from behind most of the game, it is expected that this line will not be hard for Deebo to achieve.

2. Derrick Henry OVER 80.5 Rush Yards

For me personally, this line is kind of funny, so much in fact that Underdog took this line down for the time being most likely because they intend to increase it. While Henry has been out play for the second half of the season, there is no reason to believe that he will not be back in full form when he suits up. If you can capitalize on any line that has him below 100 yards, I would take the over.

3. Jimmy Garoppolo OVER 227.5 Pass Yards

I like this line because 2 of that last 3 games we have seen Jimmy G throw for over 300 yards, and with the lull against the 49ers last week in the wildcard, we could expect to see a fairly aggressive Jimmy G for the upcoming matchup against the Packers. Like I said earlier, as I expect the 49ers to be playing from behind most of the game, Jimmy G will have to be throwing the ball more, which means more completions which also means more yards.

4. George Kittle UNDER 50.5 Rec Yards

I know, I know. It is the third 49er on this list within the first four players mentioned. However, there is probable cause for this choice, as I expect Kittle to not hit the mark set for him in against the Packers. Having only a high of 29 yards in the last three games, it is tough to imagine that he will bounce back that much, especially with how little be has been targeted in those games. I will say though, BE CAUTIOUS with this pick. I will still record it as a win or a loss for myself, but this pick has merit for being OVER or UNDER, I just happen to believe it will be UNDER this week.

5. Aaron Jones OVER 77.5 Rush + Rec Yards

I expect a lot of production from Jones in this game, and the fact that this line includes both Rushing and Receiving makes me very confident he can hit the over. If the Packers play with the lead in the game, you can expect Jones to get many touched later on in the game. It also wouldn't hurt for him to sprinkle a few receptions in there as well.


I do have a couple more lines that I will post around 4-5 hours before the first game on Saturday, giving anyone plenty of time to tail them if they feel inclined. Any predictions I make on this thread will be tallied for my total W-L ratio, and I will also post the parlays that I wager on to see if my predictions hold true. I practice what I preach!

I hope you all agree with my first installment picks, I will post a few more tomorrow along with more sports in the future, and please, feel free to make your own suggestions or if you have reason to believe the opposite on any of my picks. Best of luck to you!

 

[Mr_Nuisance]

EXTRA 1/22/2022 Pick'em Plays

1. Cam Akers OVER 50.5 Rush Yards

Cam Akers had a good showing in his true debut this season. Granted, he had 5 rushes for 3 yards in the last game of the regular season, but that was more or less just to test his ability to actually take hits since he had not played all season up until that point. Last week, he had 55 yards on 17 rushes and I could easily see that number only going up as they start to utilize him more. 50.5 yards is a very good line for the matchup against Tampa Bay.

2. Van Jefferson OVER 35.5 Rec Yards

Out of all of the picks for this weeks, this is definitely the one that I am the least confident about, so tail this one with caution. Over the season, I typically notice that Van Jefferson can hit the over on many of his lines, however it is occasionally due to him catching one long ball in the game. Last week, he had 1 target for 1 reception and 41 yards, which shows how volatile he can be if he were to not capitalize on his opportunities. HOWEVER, as long as he gets a share of the targets, I see no reason why he would not hit this over.

3. Mike Evans OVER 70.5 Rec Yards

Will he be seeing Jalen Ramsey? Yes. Will he still most likely hit this line because he has a GOAT at QB? Yes. With the absence of Godwin, there is a lot of targets on the plate for both Gronk and for Evans. I believe that we can easily see this line hit in what I assume will be a big scoring game all around in Rams vs Bucs.

4. Josh Allen UNDER 329.5 Total Yards

Josh Allen is a DAWG. But I think hitting over 320 total yards two weeks in a row is not likely to happen, especially because I expect the Chiefs offense to be on the field a lot longer than the Patriots from last week, which will only lessen the amount of time Allen has to do his magic. If Allen hits the over against the Chiefs, then I fully believe that he could go to the super bowl and win his first ring.

9 total plays for this weekend, I hope to see a good record for these bets! Let me know if you tail!

 

[Mr_Nuisance]

1/22-1/23 Results

1/22-1/23 Results: 2-7
NFL Results: 2-7Overall W/L: 2-7

For my first week posting picks, I don't think it could have gone more wrong than it did.

The two successful picks from the past weekend were Aaron Jones and Mike Evans, both of who had amazing games. As for the rest of my picks... well there is always next week.

This is why I like to justify my logic with who I pick because some people will just post the lines they are choosing and have no backing as to why that is. Sometimes, it just does not pan out the way that you expect for a week, but that is when you just move on to the next one and try to rebound.

Here is some math behind the parlays that are offered on Underdog:

For a 5 player parlay, it will pay 20x your money if your bet is a winner. So if you were to wager $5 on a parlay, it will pay you $100 on a win. What this means is that you only have to win 1 out of every 20 parlay bets to be breakeven if you bet the 5 player parlay. If you average 2 wins out of every 20 bets, you would be a profitable bettor. The same logic applies to the other multiplier amounts, you just have to win 1 out of x times in order to breakeven.

Through a purely mathematical logic, if every bet (over/under on a specific player) were exactly 50% chance of over and 50% of under, it means that you have .5^5 chance of hitting all five correctly on a parlay (Approx. 3.125%). So essentially, your win chances are less than the 5% that you pay in order to make the wager. That is where betting Apps make their money.

That is where making educated guesses on picks and knowing everything about a game and who is playing is extremely valuable in order to give you the edge to win more than 5% of the time in order to be profitable.

I will have picks for this upcoming week on a couple night where I have time to research, they will most likely include both football and basketball, so stay tuned in order to see my predictions!

 

[Mr_Nuisance]

CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND (Picks coming tomorrow!)

It is time to move past last week and take a big breath.

I have PLENTY of ideas going into the weekend for the NFL games, and I must say that I am excited for the Sunday we are about to have.

The way I look at it is that there is really no other way but up, and I'm excited to keep rolling on this train and see how we can do in the last game before the Superbowl! Stay tuned tomorrow!

 

[Mr_Nuisance]

1/30/2022 Picks (Championship Sunday)

Lets make this one better than the last!

Here are a couple of my top picks for the upcoming weekend:

1. Kyle Juszczyk OVER 9.5 Rec Yards

You can expect that if Kyle can get at least two receptions, that he will easily make this target. 9 out of 10 times this season, when he has gotten at least two receptions, he has gotten over 9.5 yards. 10 of the 18 games he has played this season, he has gotten at least 10 receiving yards. This is a great value play in my opinion as I feel he is more than 50% likely to hit this over.

2. Ja'Marr Chase OVER 0.5 Rec TDs

Typically, I do not like betting on touchdown lines as they are so unpredictable who is going to be the scorer, as rushing and receiving yards are more steady. However, I do feel that the way the Bengals have been playing recently is only going to improve the odds for Ja'Marr in this upcoming game against the Chiefs. Ja'Marr has not caught a touchdown in the last three games, and the only other time he has gone three games without a touchdown was the first three games of the season where he had 16 total receiving yards. He does not have a four game span this season without a touchdown, so I feel that this pick is very good and is very likely to hit.

3. C.J. Uzomah OVER 39.5 Rec Yards

His targets have been steadily increasing going into the playoffs, and I don't see any reason for that trend to change. With the threat in the backfield in Joe Mixon, and the two threats of Chase and Higgins at wide receiver, Uzomah has been able to get open a lot more and it is making for very explosive plays. I definitely think this over has a lot of value.

4. Joe Mixon UNDER 30.5 Rec Yards

I do want to mix in some unders in my lines because I don't like having too much money on solely overs. If you look at the stats, you might think I am crazy for this one, and maybe I am! However, I feel the Chiefs are going to be better prepared for this matchup and will not allow Mixon to get near the 7 receptions he had the last time they played a month ago.

5. Cam Akers OVER 19.5 Rec Yards

I am a Rams fan, and I LOVE Cam Akers. He had a rough game last week, there is no doubt about that, but I think that 19.5 is a VERY good line for how good the Rams offense is. Van Jefferson will potentially not play this upcoming game, so I think that will even add some value to what Akers can bring to the receiving game. I hope to see this pick do better than my pick on his rushing yards from last week.

If you have any picks that you would like to recommend, drop them in this thread and spread the reasoning for why you believe in the pick. I will be dropping more picks tomorrow before the game, good luck to everybody who decides to tail these!

 

[Mr_Nuisance]

More Picks for Today!

Here are a couple remaining picks for today's games!

1. Deebo Samuel OVER 99.5 Rush and Rec Yards

Like I have said before, I am a huge Rams fan, and I hope for them to win, however I know where the 49ers offense stems from. Deebo is a HUGE part of the offense in both the rushing attack and through the air, and I would almost always bet the over on this guy because of how likely it is to occur. If Deebo hits 100 total yards but the Rams still win, that is fine by me!

2. Tee Higgins OVER 5.5 Receptions

Higgins and Chase go hand in hand with each other, and either one of them can have a monstrous day. I just hope that today it happens to be Higgins. Regardless of who gets more yards, getting 6 receptions for either one is an easy task as Joe Burrow loves to sling the the ball around!

3. Brandon Aiyuk UNDER 49.5 Rec Yards

This isn't as much as I don't think Aiyuk can do it, rather that Unders are a very important thing to include in these parlays, and I think Aiyuk is bound to have a day where he does not get as many yards as weeks past. He caught 107 yards against the Rams in the regular season finale, and I do not think that will occur again as the Rams will definitely make adjustments.

 

[Mr_Nuisance]

1/30 Results

1/30 Results: 3-5
NFL Results: 5-12
Overall W/L: 5-12

Deebo was 2 yards away from hitting his over, Uzomah was injured early in the first quarter, and Juszczyk doesn't get targeted at all. Sports betting can be cruel sometimes.

The only bet that I might have regretted taking on was the Aiyuk UNDER for receiving yards, where as I even said in the projections post that I only included that one purely to get a mix of UNDER bets in there. Aiyuk seemed like the most likely candidate for it to hit, but unfortunately he felt like get 60+ yards on only 4 receptions.

I know I said it last week, but I do plan to implement some NBA lines in throughout the week, it is just a matter of me finding the time in the day to analyze possible plays before the games start. If you happened to win any money over the championship weekend, congratulations! If not, just refer back to my thread post about how often you need to win in order to be profitable, it will greatly help you understand how using educated guesses as opposed to just randomly picking players will give you that edge to be profitable over the long run.

Here is to a new week and hopefully some success!

 

[Mr_Nuisance]

Last Game of the Season!

Biggest game of the year, let's see if we can make some money with it as well!

I have had to take a little hiatus due to some sickness the past week and haven't been able to analyze like usual, however I am back and better than ever, and I am ready to end the NFL season on a high note with us finally getting our first win on this thread!


Here are a couple of my picks for the Superbowl:

1. Joe Burrow OVER 1 Pass Yards

This is obviously a promotional pick for the big game, however if you can find four other good picks that you feel confident in, this is incredible added value to your parlay! I am not going to even give an analysis for this pick as this is a gimme. I will say though that if Burrow threw for 0 yards today, I might have to never touch a sportsbook again.

2. Matthew Stafford OVER 20.85 Fantasy Points

Stafford has been ON FIRE during this postseason, tossing 6 touchdowns against only 1 interception and averaging over 22 fantasy points over the past three games he has played. I have no doubt that he will perform very well today and I expect it to be a good scoring game, allowing for many fantasy points to be acquired.

3. Cam Akers OVER 17.5 Rec Yards

I have been riding with Akers all postseason. He has let me down I have to admit, but I am betting that he makes it up to me in the biggest game of the postseason. If Akers can get the ball in his hands in the open field, he can make guys miss with ease, which is why I have such high confidence in him every week for his receiving yards, especially when you can get a line below 20 yards on him. I expect to see a great Rams offense with Akers being a big part of it.

4. Cooper Kupp OVER 108.5 Rec Yards

The AP Offensive Player of the Year. The Triple Crown Winner. Has the best receiving season of any wide receiver in NFL history (including playoff). This man is purely unstoppable. Whether his skill continues into future seasons remains to be seen, but I would be willing to bet that this guy can get 109 yards in the game that will solidify one of the greatest receiving seasons of all time. The past two games he has averaged approx. 160 yards, so getting just above 100 yards is child's play to a guy like Kupp.

5. Joe Mixon OVER 16.5 Rush Atts

This one is more of a bet that the game is going to remain relatively close, as the Bengals will not be running the ball if they are behind in the game. I guess they could be running if they are ahead, too, but I would much rather prefer my Rams win the game. Mixon carrying the ball 17 times seems very doable with the workload he typically gets. All it is is just over 4 carries a quarter! Let's hope the Bengals feel like utilizing him today.

 

[Mr_Nuisance]

2/13/2022 Results

2/13 Results: 2-3
NFL Results: 7-15
Overall W/L: 7-15

What a crazy game! The only thing that could have made it better was to hit on all 5 of these projections as the three that missed were all very close to hitting. As usual, sports betting hits you where it hurts.

Since the NFL season is now officially over, I will move onto other sports in the meantime, with MLB going to be one of my most common ones (should the lockout end and we actually have an MLB season). I might try to dabble in sports I don't know as much about, such as soccer, however I will make sure to continue to give accurate plays that I believe have value behind them.

Let's keep pushing forward!