NFL Mega Parlay

[TPC]

I like doing large parlays for fun. Risking a little to win a lot! I want to use this thread to come together and pick a large parlay that we agree on, so we can individually play it each week. Maybe we agree on two or three, maybe we do one large 10 team one, then a lessor one that we are more comfortable about. Either way I want to use this thread to put some minds together and make the best large parlays we can.

Attached is one that I did quickly this morning. Not all the games are available yet, I also bought points to swing games in my favor. But this is an example of what I want to discuss in this thread. Risking $1 to win $151 no matter how unlikely is a bunch of fun imo!

Edit: The image looks blurry and unreadable on my end. So this is what I picked.

Risk: $1 Win:$151.2
49ers -8.5
Jaguars +3.5
Panthers -3
Bears +7
Colts +3.5
Lions +3.5
Seahawks -5.5
Packers -2.5
Patriots -2.5
Browns -2.5

Keep in mind with the above bet, I bought points on almost every team.

 

[Synopsis]

The problem with this set up is the times. Let's say all those early games win, which in theory opens up the option for a possible hedge if done right, you have the next 4 games all starting in a 20 minute window. Let's say 3 of those games are close at the start of the 4th quarter, you wouldn't be able to hedge safely if one looked like it was going to bust. When I do big parlays I try to break it down to where the last 3 or 4 games are spread out time wise, where at most I only have 2 games to pay deep attention to. I did one recently in the NFL thread and in that one, I had 3 college games the first day, then 3 the next morning where the last of the 3 was behind in time. Then had one late, then the last was mnf. Parlays are fun for giggles, but even then you want to maximize the return, instead of hoping on a 150 to 1. Know what I mean? That last one I did lost on the last play, but I still got a little over 4500 from just 100 invested. If the hedge would have lost, id still would have cashed between 3k to almost 6k depending (I hedged twice, was a weird game) If that game would have been running at the same time as 2 other games I most likely wouldnt had a sure hedge opportunity. Timing is really important if you make it past the first 4 or 5 legs.

 

[Synopsis]

Here is a example of what I mean

App state -14 this plays on Thursday

49ers -9 roughly a quarter after app state

Michigan -20 early Saturday

Illinois -20 3 and a half hours after Michigan

Marshall -9 same as above

Oregon -3 6 hours later

Texans money line. Early sunday.

Eagles -3 3 and a half hours after texans.

Green bay -3 3 and a half hours after philly.

Dallas -6 Monday

This would pay 266.56 to 1, and after the first few games, which you wouldn't hedge that early anyway, you don't even have 2 games playing at the same time. You can pay 100 percent attention to the games. If you won the first 4, you literally could start hedging at game 5 if it starts going south in one of those 2 games that play at the same time. After that, its 1 game at a time. All key numbers, and a push would still pay out roughly what your parlay above pays out. Structuring the timing is key to these things. In your case you're only betting a dollar, so you probably don't care which I get, but for me, I don't care if I bet a dime, I'll still want to see at least a nickel profit from it haha. This also leaves the door open to rebet the majority after a loss. You could hedge out and incorporate a little extra in the hedge to pay for remaking the parlay minus the games up to the that point.

 

[TPC]

The problem with this set up is the times. Let's say all those early games win, which in theory opens up the option for a possible hedge if done right, you have the next 4 games all starting in a 20 minute window. Let's say 3 of those games are close at the start of the 4th quarter, you wouldn't be able to hedge safely if one looked like it was going to bust. When I do big parlays I try to break it down to where the last 3 or 4 games are spread out time wise, where at most I only have 2 games to pay deep attention to. I did one recently in the NFL thread and in that one, I had 3 college games the first day, then 3 the next morning where the last of the 3 was behind in time. Then had one late, then the last was mnf. Parlays are fun for giggles, but even then you want to maximize the return, instead of hoping on a 150 to 1. Know what I mean? That last one I did lost on the last play, but I still got a little over 4500 from just 100 invested. If the hedge would have lost, id still would have cashed between 3k to almost 6k depending (I hedged twice, was a weird game) If that game would have been running at the same time as 2 other games I most likely wouldnt had a sure hedge opportunity. Timing is really important if you make it past the first 4 or 5 legs.

I get what you're saying about hedging your bets. But that's not the goal of this thread. Don't need to really hedge $1 wager.

I want to generate a discussion and create what we all think the best ten team parlay would be then whoever wants to can place the bet on their own can. We can also do a second smaller parlay that we are more confident about to "cover" the larger $1 parlay.

 

[Synopsis]

That's the wrong way to look at it. It's not a dollar, it's a potential 150. If you're in the last few legs and a game is looking iffy, you aren't going to assure yourself of at least 25 dollars? With the extra 25, you could up your next one to 2 or 3 dollars and you'd only need to hedge out of 1 to recoup that until you get a good run again.

I get what you're saying about hedging your bets. But that's not the goal of this thread. Don't need to really hedge $1 wager.

I want to generate a discussion and create what we all think the best ten team parlay would be then whoever wants to can place the bet on their own can. We can also do a second smaller parlay that we are more confident about to "cover" the larger $1 parlay.

 

[TPC]

Here is a example of what I mean

App state -14 this plays on Thursday

49ers -9 roughly a quarter after app state

Michigan -20 early Saturday

Illinois -20 3 and a half hours after Michigan

Marshall -9 same as above

Oregon -3 6 hours later

Texans money line. Early sunday.

Eagles -3 3 and a half hours after texans.

Green bay -3 3 and a half hours after philly.

Dallas -6 Monday

This would pay 266.56 to 1, and after the first few games, which you wouldn't hedge that early anyway, you don't even have 2 games playing at the same time. You can pay 100 percent attention to the games. If you won the first 4, you literally could start hedging at game 5 if it starts going south in one of those 2 games that play at the same time. After that, its 1 game at a time. All key numbers, and a push would still pay out roughly what your parlay above pays out. Structuring the timing is key to these things. In your case you're only betting a dollar, so you probably don't care which I get, but for me, I don't care if I bet a dime, I'll still want to see at least a nickel profit from it haha. This also leaves the door open to rebet the majority after a loss. You could hedge out and incorporate a little extra in the hedge to pay for remaking the parlay minus the games up to the that point.

Solid strategy, I like it! But again, not the goal of this thread. I don't follow college football so can't bet on it. But I do know the NFL and the Texans aren't beating the Jaguars

 

[TPC]

That's the wrong way to look at it. It's not a dollar, it's a potential 150. If you're in the last few legs and a game is looking iffy, you aren't going to assure yourself of at least 25 dollars? With the extra 25, you could up your next one to 2 or 3 dollars and you'd only need to hedge out of 1 to recoup that until you get a good run again.

I can easily cover the cost of that $1 with a straight bet, and I do. I do more bets and parlays than just crazy big parlays. The goal of this thread is to generate a discussion about one big parlay. Doing what you are suggesting would be impossible with the timing as you already stated.

So do you want to argue strategy more or pick some games to talk about?

 

[Synopsis]

I think they will beat the jags comfortably. LF won't have any 65 yard tds like he had against the last two terrible teams they played to get them going, even with watt out. I don't think the jags dline is quick enough horizontally to stop key 3rd downs where Watson can take off.

Solid strategy, I like it! But again, not the goal of this thread. I don't follow college football so can't bet on it. But I do know the NFL and the Texans aren't beating the Jaguars

 

[Synopsis]

Tisk tisk... I was just trying to be helpful. I'll leave you to it. Good luck.

I can easily cover the cost of that $1 with a straight bet, and I do. I do more bets and parlays than just crazy big parlays. The goal of this thread is to generate a discussion about one big parlay. Doing what you are suggesting would be impossible with the timing as you already stated.

So do you want to argue strategy more or pick some games to talk about?