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Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
The literacy of NFL handicapping here is fairly low, and since there seems to be very little betting between two members anymore, I feel at liberty to share some knowledge about handicapping the NFL.
First of all, almost no one gets rich handicapping the NFL against a sportsbook. The NFL is exceptionally well studied, and casinos put out very sharp lines that are almost never totally out of whack for a full game. You have to win ~52.38% of your bets against the spread to break even at -110 odds. You'd think being right 52.5% of the time over a long sample wouldn't be hard, but Vegas is incredibly good at making lines that are 50:50 propositions.
Secondly, when making picks, there are a few no brainer ways to increase your expectation.
1) When in doubt, take the points. Underdogs cover the spread 51.5% of the time, home underdogs cover 52.48% of the time. So if you bet on a home dog blindly, you'd show a super small profit. The public typically doesn't like backing "the worse team", and thus sportsbooks will typically edge their lines ever so slightly in favor of the dog. The opposite of this is obviously true as well, don't try to cover huge spreads on the road.
2) Don't bet sucker bets. In general, teasers, most parlays, and superbowl futures are sucker bets. There are some exceptions, such as a Wong Teaser where you cross the 7 and the 3, but even then you're usually better off betting straight up against the spread, the moneyline, or the total.
3) Know what edges Vegas accounts for. Vegas has a pretty good idea how much each home field is worth, what bye weeks are worth, and that beating up on a bunch of crummy teams doesn't make you good (Hello KC Chiefs in 2013). Saying "Oh, I like Denver this week because they're at home against a Chiefs team that's only beaten bad teams" isn't an argument. The book has that priced into it's line.
4) If you're actually trying to make money seriously, like half of your profit comes from shopping around. It's hard for small timers like us, but at least try to split your roll between two books.
5) People have already done the work for you. There's a litany of people online who will give you good information for free. I've listed my favorites below.
Wizard of Odds
Two Plus Two
Lines at Various Books
Public Consensus on Picks
The best quantitative-only handicappers
First of all, almost no one gets rich handicapping the NFL against a sportsbook. The NFL is exceptionally well studied, and casinos put out very sharp lines that are almost never totally out of whack for a full game. You have to win ~52.38% of your bets against the spread to break even at -110 odds. You'd think being right 52.5% of the time over a long sample wouldn't be hard, but Vegas is incredibly good at making lines that are 50:50 propositions.
Secondly, when making picks, there are a few no brainer ways to increase your expectation.
1) When in doubt, take the points. Underdogs cover the spread 51.5% of the time, home underdogs cover 52.48% of the time. So if you bet on a home dog blindly, you'd show a super small profit. The public typically doesn't like backing "the worse team", and thus sportsbooks will typically edge their lines ever so slightly in favor of the dog. The opposite of this is obviously true as well, don't try to cover huge spreads on the road.
2) Don't bet sucker bets. In general, teasers, most parlays, and superbowl futures are sucker bets. There are some exceptions, such as a Wong Teaser where you cross the 7 and the 3, but even then you're usually better off betting straight up against the spread, the moneyline, or the total.
3) Know what edges Vegas accounts for. Vegas has a pretty good idea how much each home field is worth, what bye weeks are worth, and that beating up on a bunch of crummy teams doesn't make you good (Hello KC Chiefs in 2013). Saying "Oh, I like Denver this week because they're at home against a Chiefs team that's only beaten bad teams" isn't an argument. The book has that priced into it's line.
4) If you're actually trying to make money seriously, like half of your profit comes from shopping around. It's hard for small timers like us, but at least try to split your roll between two books.
5) People have already done the work for you. There's a litany of people online who will give you good information for free. I've listed my favorites below.
Wizard of Odds
Two Plus Two
Lines at Various Books
Public Consensus on Picks
The best quantitative-only handicappers
