NFL Analytics Flawed?

[ChickenArise]

In week 5 the Vikings played the Seahawks and The Vikings were up by 5 late in the fourth quarter. It was 4th and 1 in the red zone. The field goal attempt would be easy close, but if they go for it and get a first down they can kneel the clock out in victory formation.

If they kick the field goal they go up by 8 and the Seahawks would need to execute a perfect touchdown drive and two point conversion with about a minute and a half remaining to tie and send the game into overtime.

They go for it on 4th and 1 and turn the ball over on downs and the Seahawks score a touchdown to win before the conversion is even attempted.

The exact same scenario happened in the most recent Steelers/Cowboys game. The Steelers are up by 5 and go for it on 4th and 1. They fail to get a first down and give Dallas plenty of time to put together a game winning drive, yet this time the Steelers manage to hang on to win.

I would choose to go up by 8 every time and force the other team to not only get a touchdown but also a 2 point conversion to tie. How is it that my decision is a bad one?

 

[S3mper]

I'd also kick the field goal - at least in the former.

The Steelers game had nothing to do with analytics, the Cowboys almost blocked every kick except one, and that one they actually blocked. Tomlin forgot "We don't live in our fears" and got scared to kick the field goal.

I also don't think the scorecards they use to decide when to kick a field goal etc that the coaches are using accounts for their and their opponents offensive/defensive abilities. So I don't think they should be living and dying by them like the Vikings did. Kick the field goal.

Unless you have Gostkowski, then go for it.

 

[Davey_H]

I can't get my head around the one where if you're 14 points down and score a T.D., the analytics advise to go for 2. The reasoning is that if you make it, your % of winning goes up, if you don't you can still equalise with a T.D. and going for 2 again.
But surely it's better to be (almost) certainly 7 points down than 8. And if you didn't get the 2 on the first attempt wouldn't you be less likely to succeed if you get another shot?