Horse handicapping contest

[ChickenArise]

Going to post free past performances in this thread when I get them. Today's contest is a 175k stakes race, 9th at Woodbine on Saturday NOV 21. Let me know who you like. Lets say you have $24 you can wager any way you like. Ill post results and payouts and how everyone did at the conclusion of the race.


https://www.equibase.com/content/rotw/fullpp.pdf

Post time is 528pm EST.

 

[ChickenArise]

Im going to go with #2 Ride a Comet followed by #4 Silent Poet. I think 7 and 1 both have a shot at third.

$ 12 EXA 2-4
$ 8 EXA 4-2
$ 1 TPW 2-4/2-4/1-7 ($4)

 

[ChickenArise]

RESULTS R9 WOODBINE 21NOV

RESULTS R9 WOODBINE 21NOV

I didnt end up hitting my bets so my final score is negative $24.

I will post up the next past performances I receive here and hopefully will have more participants for the next one.

 

[ribbybruno]

RESULTS R9 WOODBINE 21NOV

I didnt end up hitting my bets so my final score is negative $24.

I will post up the next past performances I receive here and hopefully will have more participants for the next one.

I just saw this thread. I will try and participate next time I see a post.

 

[Aremaz95]

I also saw this today, will you choose the race or can we say the race where we will make the play to win?

 

[ChickenArise]

I also saw this today, will you choose the race or can we say the race where we will make the play to win?

The most important factor in selecting the races that we play in this contest is that a free past performance be made available to everyone, preferably with at least a day advance notice.

If you have access to a link for a fee past performance, feel free to post it here, and initiate a contest for that race.

It must be a past performance so we can do some actual handicapping as opposed to an entries sheet which just doesnt provide enough information.

I am subscribed to newsletters that make these available on average about once per week for their featured race, so when I get the next one I will post it here.

For consistency sake the only rule I would suggest going forward is that we keep the amount available to bet at $24 per race which you can distribute across how ever many types of bets you wish without exceeding $24.

 

[ChickenArise]

New contest. Races 5,6,& 7 FAIR GROUNDS Friday, November 27, 2020

Here is the full card for FAIR GROUNDS New Orleans LA Friday, November 27, 2020

https://www.fairgroundsracecourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Friday-PPs-1.pdf

For this leg of the ongoing contest we will be focusing on Races 5,6,& 7 which opens up the pick 3 should you wish to wager on it.

You will be allotted $24 to use per race and must list your bets before the scheduled post time 401pm EST of the 5th race to be counted.

All are welcome to participate and it is free for all to enter. Not available in Paramus, New Jersey.

(ok you can play if you live in Paramus, New Jersey but you must explain why I always saw this notice in TV Commercials as a kid growing up in New York). Happy holidays !!!


This is a place holder only for Saturday, which will be used for the next contest
https://www.fairgroundsracecourse.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Saturday-PPs.pdf
you are welcome to look at it but please note the link for todays contest is the one at the top of the page and not this one.
Saturdays races TBA after the conclusion of this leg of the contest

 

[ribbybruno]

Okay! Here we go! Sounds fun!

Race #5 -

Exacta $5 - 11 (Expensive) 1st place - 8 (Suggested) 2nd place
Trifecta $5 - 11 (Expensive) 1st place - 8 (Suggested) 2nd place - 5 (No Kai Oi) 3rd place
Win,Place or Show $10- 11 (Expensive)
Win $4 - 7 (Bayandbunny) longshot

Race #6 -

Win $10 - 3 (Stillchargingmaria)
Exacta $10 - 3 (Stillchargingmaria) 1st place - 4 (Socialdilemma) 2nd place
Win $4 - 4 (Socialdilemma)

Race #7 -

Exacta $3 - 5 (Irish Hustle) 1st place - 11 (For Real Alice) 2nd place
Trifecta $2 - 5 (Irish Hustle) 1st place - 11 (For Real Alice) 2nd place - 12 (Memory Magic) 3rd place
Exacta $5 - 12 (Memory Magic) 1st place - 5 (Irish Hustle) 2nd place
Win, Place or Show $10- 5 (Irish Hustle)
Win $4 - 13 (Kodiak Sky) longshot


Hopefully, I did this correctly. Easier to talk to the cage guy. lol

 

[orchidra]

Sound like a lot of fun. Hope I'm not too late.

Race #5 - Win $24 - 8 Suggested
Race #6 - Win $24 - 5 Latte Dolce
Race #7 - Win $24 - 5 Irish Hustle

 

[redsfan]

I have been playing the horses for over 50 years.I owned and raced harness horses for several years.I still have friends that own and race horses.I do not use any handicapping tools except trainer and jockey stats,dont look at the program at all.I like to bet thoroughbred now over harness.I only bet harness for many years.The harness tends to have more favorites win.I am not a favorite better.I only look at the apperance of the horse,his coat,his mannerisms,if hes on his toes or not.Really his over all apperance on the track,and in the paddock.I do beside,trainer and jockey,always look at his or her breeding.Most of the time that program will not lead you to a long shot.I think looks and apperance will.I bet almost every day,and try to go to live racing when i can.You get a way better look at a horse if you are there at the track.I do go to my local casino,once or twice a week,and visit the racebook.Only have a sheet with the type of race and the conditions,jockey,trainer,and most of the time breeding.The casino i go to is Belterra park,and they just closed there live meeting in october,so now its just simulcast.I dont bet multi races,like pic 3s or pic 6s,since i have to see the horse before i bet on them.I bet trifectas and supers and perfectas.The only time i will bet without seeing the horse is when i get a good tip lol.I do hit my share of races handicapping this way.Chickenarise what do you think of the way i handicap races?

 

[Aremaz95]

I think I would play like this:
Pick 3:
5)8-11-2
6)3-4
7)2-5-7-12
x0.50$=12$
[FONT=arial, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
Race 5:
Win, place, show: 11(6$)

Race 6:
Exacta Box: 3-4 (2$)

Race 7:
Win, place: 12 (4$)

 

[Aremaz95]

3 (Stillchargingmaria) - 4 (Socialdilemma) The Exacta Box in this race was very juicy paid $ 53

 

[ChickenArise]

RESULTS FAIR GROUNDS 27NOV Races 5-7

Here are the results for FAIR GROUNDS 27NOV Races 5-7. I will attempt tabulate participants and see how we all did in a following post.

I made my notes of who I liked but slept on my entry and disqualified myself. I would have missed the first race and maybe had a shot at the double in the 6th at best.

I was getting ready to post up a challenge for tomorrow in this thread and then I remembered that I am limited to 5 pics total upload in any thread. That is not going to work to well in posting the race results so I will be making a new thread for the next one which will feature a race tomorrow Saturday Nov. 28th

I hope you had fun and hope to see you then.


Here are the race results, lets see how you did:

 

[ChickenArise]

...The only time i will bet without seeing the horse is when i get a good tip lol.I do hit my share of races handicapping this way.Chickenarise what do you think of the way i handicap races?

This is an acquired skill that some talented and experienced horse men and women have which I do not even though I have been going to the track much of my adult life.

I remember going to the track with a young lady who was an equestrian and very familiar with horses. She did the same thing and did very well that day picking multiple winners at decent odds.

She pointed out some things to look for but I dont remember what all of those things were.

 

[ChickenArise]

Okay! Here we go! Sounds fun!

Race #5 -

Exacta $5 - 11 (Expensive) 1st place - 8 (Suggested) 2nd place
Trifecta $5 - 11 (Expensive) 1st place - 8 (Suggested) 2nd place - 5 (No Kai Oi) 3rd place
Win,Place or Show $10- 11 (Expensive)
Win $4 - 7 (Bayandbunny) longshot

Race #6 -

Win $10 - 3 (Stillchargingmaria)
Exacta $10 - 3 (Stillchargingmaria) 1st place - 4 (Socialdilemma) 2nd place
Win $4 - 4 (Socialdilemma)

Race #7 -

Exacta $3 - 5 (Irish Hustle) 1st place - 11 (For Real Alice) 2nd place
Trifecta $2 - 5 (Irish Hustle) 1st place - 11 (For Real Alice) 2nd place - 12 (Memory Magic) 3rd place
Exacta $5 - 12 (Memory Magic) 1st place - 5 (Irish Hustle) 2nd place
Win, Place or Show $10- 5 (Irish Hustle)
Win $4 - 13 (Kodiak Sky) longshot


Hopefully, I did this correctly. Easier to talk to the cage guy. lol

Not too shabby, Ribby. I had you wagering $72 and your tickets returned a total of $32.80 for a net loss of $(39.20) on the day.

You had the order reversed in the 6th race and just missed. Had you done a $5 exacta box 3-4 instead of a $10 straight exacta 3-4 you would have still only wagered $10 but collected 2.5 x the exacta payout of 25.60 and easily profited on the day. A box allows for any order of your selections to happen. The ticket cost is the number of combinations possible times your base bet.

You did however have a back up win bet on the 4 horse in race 6 which returned $20.80 (2 x 10.40) and a $10 show bet on the 5 horse in race 7 (win place or show) which returned $12 (5x 2.40).

So for the next one remember the tools you have available and the wagers available shown just to the right of the race number which looks something like this


Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double /$0.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-4)

The exacta is a $2 base bet but as long as you are spending $2 the track allows for a $1 box bet totaling $2. A box allows for any order of your selections to come in and you win. If you desire the full exacta payout you would need to do a $2 exacta box with 2 selections for a total wager of $4.

When using 2 horses, boxing them results in 2 combinations possible so the total cost of the bet is 2 times your base bet. A $1 exacta box 3,4 costs $2 total and gives you $1 on the 3,4 result as well as $1 on the 4,3 result and pays half of the $2 exacta payout. We call this off as $1 EXACTA BOX 3,4 ($2 total wager).

Keep in mind when you box 3 horses there are 6 combinations, so 6 times the cost of your base bet (a $1 triple box 3,4,5 costs $6 and gives you a win with a 3,4,5 result in any order).

A 4 horse box is 24 combinations and this is where it starts getting expensive so I tend to use a part wheel strategies to save money when I like that many horses. It helps keep the cost down.

This may help you going forward:
https://www.predictem.com/horse-betting/trifecta-betting-strategies/

Seems at this track you can do some cheap triple wagering as it allows a 50 cent base bet where most tracks will make you wager between $1-2 per combination.

If you have any questions you can feel free to post in the thread or message me. I will try to get my selections in for the next one earlier so you can see how some of the fancier bets are written out. Ill also try to elaborate a bit tomorrow so we can all get the hang of it.

We will make a horse pro out of you yet!

I will have tabulations of the other participants shortly and we will crown a winner for episode 1 of the challenge....

 

[ChickenArise]

Sound like a lot of fun. Hope I'm not too late.

Race #5 - Win $24 - 8 Suggested
Race #6 - Win $24 - 5 Latte Dolce
Race #7 - Win $24 - 5 Irish Hustle

Nice late showing, Orchidra. You didnt have any luck in races 5 and 6 but you finished well by selecting the winner in Race 7.

The #5 horse Irish Hustle won Race 7 and returned $4.00 for every $2 wagered, so you collected $48 at the window.

You wagered $72 total and collected $48 for a loss of $(24.00) on the day. Any day you dont leave the track empty handed is a fair day at the track and beats a great day at work.

Nothing wrong with placing win bets but if you wish this may help you to place some of the more exotic wagers available for bigger pay days!

https://www.predictem.com/horse-betting/trifecta-betting-strategies/

Hope to see you for tomorrows race which is posted now in a new thread titled episode 2.

I will tabulate our final contestant, Aremaz95's selections and then we will crown today's winner .....

 

[ChickenArise]

I think I would play like this:
Pick 3:
5)8-11-2
6)3-4
7)2-5-7-12
x0.50$=12$
[FONT=arial, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
Race 5:
Win, place, show: 11(6$)

Race 6:
Exacta Box: 3-4 (2$)

Race 7:
Win, place: 12 (4$)

Nice hit nailing the exacta in Race 6, Aremaz95! And you remembered to box it so it can come in any order.

I am fairly certain you are the winner of episode 1 of the horse handicapping contest as the exacta returned $25.60 for every $2 bet and I think you had at least $2 on it if not more based on your reaction.

Please remember to put your base bet, type of wager, selections, and total cost of ticket. Also remember you can wager up to $24 in each race.

So you definitely had a bit more money available to wager potentially leaving money on the table.

The pick 3 wager cost is deducted from the money you had available for race 5 (since it is placed in race 5).

Your actual cost of the pick 3 wager was $11 and not $12 (I included a link to a bet calculator in episode 2 thread for tomorrow so you can double check it).

Therefore you had $13 remaining to wager on race 5.

You could have bet $24 in race 6, and $24 again in race 7.

Lets focus on Race 6 for a moment which paid $25.60 for every $2 bet on the correct exacta combination.

It should be written as
(Race6) $2 EXACTA BOX 3,4 ($4)
this bet would collect $25.60 and cost $4

If you wanted to bet $4 on each combination
(Race 6) $4 EXACTA BOX 3,4 ($8)
this would have paid $51.20 at the window and cost $8

This way I know exactly what you intend going forward.

You can abbreviate the same way they would print it on the ticket at the track and just include total wager cost and I will understand. EXA BOX is fine.

If your intent in race 5 was $6 to win, and place, and show on #11:
(Race 5) $6 WPS 11 ($18)


I understood the pick 3 wager just fine but to write it the ticket the track way it would read:

(Race 5) 50c Pick3 8+11+2 /3-4 /2+5+7+12 ($11)

the ticket printer uses + for and
and - for thru

It doesnt have to be perfect, just close enough that I can know exactly what was intended. And if you lead with the base bet and finish with total amount wagered in parenthesis, there is no chance of me reading it wrong.

I figured we would hit a few bumps in the first one, but you know your horses well so we will be on the same page in no time.

Congrats again and hope to see you in the next one which is posted now, along with a link to the bet calculator I was telling you about. Cheers!