$$15.00 NL HE MTT: Should I have made the play I did in a Big 15 Tournament on PokerStarsPA

blkmoney12

blkmoney12

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To set the scene, I had the chip lead and the bubble had just burst. Only 13 cashed, with 12 players left when the following hand had happened.

Blinds were 400/800 w/100ante.
Preflop UTG folds, MP shoves their remaining 5565, MP1 calls, all fold to me in the BB with AQo. I then decided to push all-in trying to isolate MP. MP1 thinks for a few seconds and calls. hands flip over. MP has A10s, and MP1 has a slightly stronger hand with AKs.

See how the hand plays out here >>> https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/825d8lacF

I question myself after the hand plays out (of course) as to whether or not I should have just called, see the flop and then make a decision whether to shove or not. I mean, what's done is done but AQ often haunts me as it is.

Did I make the right decision? What would you have done?
 
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300HPGOD

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I did watch the replayer all the way through but did have my mind made up as soon as I saw villain flat here. This should set off some alarm bells when you see this. First question I would have is what do I think about calling villain? If I think they are any kind of competent player then I start to think they should only be flatting this sized jam off the stack they have with very premium hands (like AA or KK). If I think they are bad/have no idea what they are doing then we can widen their calling range here which includes some hands that AQ beats. So to me, that is what this hand comes down to, is villain any good or not? They are flatting a 7 BB jam with players to act behind them off a 33 BB stack... that should really not be happening unless they want action behind them so if I was readless here or thought villain was at least decent I would actually fold AQ here even though that seems nitty but I would be going off the range that I think would do this. I would actually never call here in your spot, its either a jam or fold to me given villain started with only 33 BBs.

As a side note, villain doing this move with AK suited here is really bad in my opinion. They should be jamming over this open jam in front of them even with two stacks that cover them behind. Maybe this is not bad if they are trying to induce action behind them and are calling here with the intention of calling any jam or jamming over any raise but I still dont like it and think with 33 BBs its better to just jam AK suited there. Interested in what others think about the scenario if villain is trying to induce a jam behind them by just flatting and if that is a better play than jamming themselves but my opinion on that is no.
 
JJP

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I would have just folded, I don't think AQ is crushing his calling range and I don't think he's calling and folding much of it ...
 
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fundiver199

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If it was just MP putting in his last 7BB, then AQo is a fine call. But when MP+1 has overjammed for 30+BB, its an easy fold. Even AKo is a fold in this situation, unless its a PKO.
 
Matt_Burns88

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If it was just MP putting in his last 7BB, then AQo is a fine call. But when MP+1 has overjammed for 30+BB, its an easy fold. Even AKo is a fold in this situation, unless its a PKO.
MP+1 calls behind, he doesn't overjam.

I think call or jam is perfectly fine here. I know MP+1 wakes up with a monster on this occasion, but a lot of the time when you jam here, MP+1 has to fold out and there's 7bb of dead money in the pot vs short stack very wide range.

I agree though, if MP+1 shoves, you have an easy fold.
 
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fundiver199

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MP+1 calls behind, he doesn't overjam.
Yeah I missed that.
I think call or jam is perfectly fine here. I know MP+1 wakes up with a monster on this occasion, but a lot of the time when you jam here, MP+1 has to fold out and there's 7bb of dead money in the pot vs short stack very wide range.
The issue with jamming is, that even when MP+1 fold, we still need to beat MP at showdown. So we are mostly just helping MP by giving him better pot odds, when MP+1 fold. In fact the optimal strategy in situations like this is the exact opposite, where the big stacks gang up on the small stack and try to bust him. Which mean, that if Hero wants to play his hand, he should just call preflop and then only bet postflop with strong made hands, that are likely to win at showdown. And I think, it can be ok to call here with AQ. But its marginal enough, that its also not a mistake to simply fold and hope, MP+1 busts MP.
 
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300HPGOD

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The issue with jamming is, that even when MP+1 fold, we still need to beat MP at showdown.
AQ is crushing the range of a 7 BB open jam being the smallest stack at the table with the blinds coming to them in 2 hands. So I would not be worried about our hand being good against theirs.

So we are mostly just helping MP by giving him better pot odds, when MP+1 fold.
We are also helping our own equity too and again as stated above, our AQ is way ahead of their range so I would not be thinking this. I get the pay jump piece this argument (getting them knocked out) but I would still be worried about the best way to get chips at this point and not lattering given the stack we have.

In fact the optimal strategy in situations like this is the exact opposite, where the big stacks gang up on the small stack and try to bust him.

Very true but it this goes back to what I said about how good is calling villain. We cant assume that calling villain will just check this down with us which is what we need to have happen if we overcall and dont connect. We are very flop, turn, river dependent when we call here.

Which mean, that if Hero wants to play his hand, he should just call preflop and then only bet postflop with strong made hands, that are likely to win at showdown

Also 100% true but then we are calling 7 BBs here out of position to a range that we know is at least somewhat good and could be better than ours and we cant do anything unless we hit something. This would be somewhat fine, I guess, if we knew villain was going to check this down with us but we cant even come close to guaranteeing that. Any hypothetical flop if we miss at all and villain bets we would have to fold so I think the odds that we come out good by just calling this (meaning our AQ is ahead, villain never bets if we miss, or we hit someway, etc.) is fairly low. Thats why I would fold this mostly but if I was ever going to get involved with the hand (meaning I think villain would not just be doing this with premiums based on my thoughts on them) then I would jam and make villain have to decide what to do with their 1010, JJ type hands (which they could fold depending on what they think of my range as they didnt jam them to begin with so I would/could be getting better hands to fold). I understand and agree it folds out their worse aces but if the board doesnt come up anything for us anyway our plan was to check it down so we would not be getting any more value from those hands anyway.
 
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fundiver199

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AQ is crushing the range of a 7 BB open jam being the smallest stack at the table with the blinds coming to them in 2 hands. So I would not be worried about our hand being good against theirs.
In a normal pot, when we rejam a hand like AQo and get a fold, our equity goes from maybe 55% to 100%, which is a 45% gain. In this situation however it goes from something like 35 % to 55%, which is only a 20% gain. The numbers will of course behind on the exact range, we put our opponents on, but getting a fold is never as valuable in a protected pot (someone already all-in), as it is in a normal pot.
We are also helping our own equity too and again as stated above, our AQ is way ahead of their range so I would not be thinking this.
I dont think, AQ is way ahead of MPs range. Maybe it has 55-60% equity, and thats not something, I would consider "way ahead".
I get the pay jump piece this argument (getting them knocked out) but I would still be worried about the best way to get chips at this point and not lattering given the stack we have.
With a stack this big chip preservation is more important than chip accumulation. Especially considering, that if we jam and get a fold, the most, we can win, is around 15BB. But if we get called, we can lose more than 30BB, which is a significant chunk of our stack.
Very true but it this goes back to what I said about how good is calling villain.
Given that its late in a 15$ MTT, our default assumption has to be, that this is someone, who is at least somewhat competent. The most crazy fish and gamblers are usually long gone at this point. And there are also less of them to begin with in a 15$ MTT as opposed to a micro game or a freeroll.
We cant assume that calling villain will just check this down with us which is what we need to have happen if we overcall and dont connect.
If my experience if someone bet into a dry sidepot, and we fold, its extremely rare, that we were not way behind and making a correct laydown. So if anything a protected pot is much easier to play out of position than a regular pot. Also if he did actually bluff, then we know, he is a total donk. So we get valuable information and can take a note on him, which we can use in future hands.
We are very flop, turn, river dependent when we call here.
Sure. We cant bluff effectively, just like MP+1 cant bluff effectively. So whoever makes the best hand is going to win the pot. But this is not a problem, if we think, we have enough equity 3-ways to make a profitable call.
Also 100% true but then we are calling 7 BBs here out of position to a range that we know is at least somewhat good and could be better than ours and we cant do anything unless we hit something.
But neither can MP+1, which actually takes away all his positional advantage.
This would be somewhat fine, I guess, if we knew villain was going to check this down with us but we cant even come close to guaranteeing that.
Once again he will, unless he has us beat or is a total donkey. Which is unlikely late in a 15$ MTT.
Thats why I would fold this mostly but if I was ever going to get involved with the hand (meaning I think villain would not just be doing this with premiums based on my thoughts on them) then I would jam and make villain have to decide what to do with their 1010, JJ type hands (which they could fold depending on what they think of my range as they didnt jam them to begin with so I would/could be getting better hands to fold).
Folding here is fine, since its a marginal spot to begin with. But jamming is way worse than calling. Actually MP+1 is supposed to fold AK, when Hero jam, so by jamming Hero is completely turning his hand into a bluff. And why bluff, if the whole reason to get involved was, that we think, the hand is to good to fold?
 
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fundiver199

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Guess we have to agree to disagree then which is what the forum is all about. Good hand to post
Its a great hand to post for analysis, because its an awkward spot, which dont come up that often. But when it does, its important, that we know how to handle it. I think, what we can agree on, is, that its completely fine to just fold here. And since this was not even mentioned in the writeup, maybe this is the main point, which OP should take away.
 
_420_420_

_420_420_

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Personally the shove is too large there, I do understand with the effective stack size, but still the sizing is basically only getting action from better. This is just something that is going to happen a lot with AQ where you will either be flipping with a pocket pair.
But the way this hard was dealt out specifically, you may have been able to get him to fold a gut shot on the turn if you had bet/raised there. But he sucked out on the turn so what are you going to do if he calls. Not your fault, basically AQ is just a hard hand to know where you are at there.
 
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fundiver199

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Personally the shove is too large there, I do understand with the effective stack size, but still the sizing is basically only getting action from better.
Absolutely. I plugged the hand into ICMizer, and MP+1 is only supposed to call with QQ+. So AKs should actually have folded, and the fact, it did not, makes the jam unprofitable. At least if MP+1 also call with AKo, which I think, a lot of people do. And this is another general point to take away from the hand. If people are supposed to fold hands, that many people cant fold, then we probably dont want to pick that particular spot to bluff, unless we know the opponent very well.
 
blkmoney12

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Good morning to you all I have seen that they handed I showed you I've gotten a lot of response and many differing opinions. I first of all want to thank you for taking the time to make a response to my question it will be very helpful in the future lessons learned on things to do and most importantly not to do. Also was helpful the explanations are very detailed and very easy to follow. In my opinion I think at the end of the day I think the appropriate play would have been or at least the appropriate options are either call or shove fold copying option but the hands a little too good to do that with and just fold it unless there's action in front of me first. But at the end I think it might have been better off calling the hand rather than shoving All in. Like someone said is more valuable to have chips in the hand especially getting close to a final table we could actually go to battle with then and not have any at all. Or what happened to me was I want to bubble in the final table which was absolutely an excusable with the stack I had. Well thank you for the advice I will keep this in mind next time I'm in a similar spot. Well I'm going to get myself going thank you and have a nice day goodbye.
 
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