QQ in CO, LAG raise UTG...Easy play?

[NineLions]

UTG raiser is loose and aggressive; his preflop raise could mean anything. I was more concerned about Alex, to my right. Didn't have much of a read on him, but I was guessing if he raises rather than just calling the raise, I put him on AK or some kind of big pair, something that he figures he's got UTG beat with.

pokerstars Game #9043004975: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2007/03/23 - 01:54:37 (ET)
Table 'Aralia II' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Ninelions ($9.85 in chips)
Seat 2: Malboulger ($6.20 in chips)
Seat 3: DawsonS64 ($12.75 in chips)
Seat 4: MissFriday ($10.90 in chips)
Seat 5: germany4ever ($23 in chips)
Seat 7: neverwinter5 ($11.55 in chips)
Seat 8: xCinderella ($21.15 in chips)
Seat 9: Alex916F ($12.45 in chips)
DawsonS64: posts small blind $0.05
MissFriday: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ninelions [Qd Qs]
germany4ever: raises $0.30 to $0.40
neverwinter5: folds
xCinderella: folds
Alex916F: raises $0.60 to $1
Ninelions: calls $1
Malboulger: folds
DawsonS64: folds
MissFriday: folds
germany4ever: calls $0.60
*** FLOP *** [6h 3c 9h]
germany4ever: checks
Alex916F: bets $2.25


I'm reading this as a standard c-bet given the flush draw. 1/2 pot c-bets had been totally successful at this table, so I read 2/3 bet as either he knows what he's doing with the flush draw and/or he has what I put him on to begin with. At this point I'm still wondering what the chances are he's on KK or AA.


Ninelions: calls $2.25
germany4ever: folds
*** TURN *** [6h 3c 9h] 3♦
Alex916F: bets $2.90
Ninelions: ?????????


By this point I could have re-raised preflop or on the flop, but I didn't. Partly I wanted to let him lead to see if I could get indications of his holding and keep mine a mystery, and partly because I wanted to let UTG contribute to the pot for a while.

 

[Prolaznik]

Hm, it depends of the table and situation, after UTG raise and MP reraise - you should consider folding.
If you didn't fold preflop, you should stay after such a nice flop. It would be nice to raise and define the hand, but it seems too reckless for me (dangerous player behind).
So I like your call on the flop.
After he bet only 2.90 on turn, you have to stay. Raising? I don't like it. Defining isn't needed anymore - the pot is too big. I judge your winning chances about 50:50.
So I'd only call on turn.
I guess that he checked or made a blocking bet on river...

 

[DeadoneD1]

I think he has 2 hearts in his hand and one of them is 3

I would fold here

 

[NineLions]

I think he has 2 hearts in his hand and one of them is 3

I would fold here

I think the only hearts I could put him on preflop would be AK, otherwise I don't think he's raising UTG's preflop raise. If he's like me, he knows UTG is loose but also aggressive and not going to fold to his raise, so his reraise would mean he's defining his hand as a big hand.

If he does have AK hearts, I don't think he would bet 2/3 pot on the flop because then he'd have the nuts if a flop hits. Rather than pricing flush draws out, he should be inviting them in.

So I read his 2/3 flop bet saying he doesn't have hearts, or at least not 2 of them, and he wants flush draws to fold.

 

[NineLions]

Hm, it depends of the table and situation, after UTG raise and MP reraise - you should consider folding.

In a cash I game I find QQ pretty hard to fold preflop, unless there's a raise, re-raise, and a re-re-raise, or, someone goes crazy and repops a huge amount. In a tournament it might be a different matter since survival is key, but here, you're right, I'm afraid of KK or AA with the raise, but I'm not going to lay it down yet. He, like me, couldn't have failed to notice that UTG was loose so both of us are probably thinking he might have any semi-decent hand, rather than giving him full UTG-raise credit, which in turn, lowers the range of what MP might be reraising with.

A more aggressive player than me might have repopped preflop with QQ to define my own hand, and if I had AA or KK I would have but with QQ I'm only ahead of JJ, TT, and maybe racing AK or AQ. I don't think he's re-raising with 99, but that's only my guess at the time.

 

[skoldpadda]

I agree with NineLions -- can't put him on a 3 here. I think AK hearts is a likely candidate or maybe AQ hearts. KK and AA are possible, but less likely. I think he'd bet more on the turn to make it a poor decision to chase the flush draw (an opponent of his might have).

 

[NineLions]

So I like your call on the flop.
After he bet only 2.90 on turn, you have to stay. Raising? I don't like it. Defining isn't needed anymore - the pot is too big. I judge your winning chances about 50:50.
So I'd only call on turn.

That was a small bet on the turn, and makes me think he's losing steam and concerned about the fact that I called his flop bet. Or, he wants me to THINK that he's losing steam and concerned about my call when in fact he wants to trap me .....

 

[NineLions]

I agree with NineLions -- can't put him on a 3 here. I think AK hearts is a likely candidate or maybe AQ hearts. KK and AA are possible, but less likely. I think he'd bet more on the turn to make it a poor decision to chase the flush draw (an opponent of his might have).

I dunno; if I'm him with the AK hearts, I'd bet less making it easy for other flush draws to stay in. As I mentioned, continuation bets of 1/2 pot had been taking pots down, so even that, in different circumstances, would have worked.

In retrospect, since I was somewhat concerned about the flush draw as well, I probably should have raised in order to make sure UTG doesn't get odds to draw if he's chasing a flush. On the other hand, the pot is getting pretty big even with me just calling his flop bet.

 

[JimboJim]

If you're giving this guy a lot of respect of being a decent player then his bet on the flop means that he's holding big but he still wants you out. The turn bet is either to try to get you to push or for you to fold a draw. I would say either aces or jacks. You can't fold this unless you can defiantly put him on Aces and you surely don't want to push. Call and see what he does on the river. Hopefully it'll make him nervous and he checks the river to you. (this is the type of hand that kills me)

By the way....I just encountered your UTG and busted him. I took his last $3.75.

 

[NineLions]

If you're giving this guy a lot of respect of being a decent player then his bet on the flop means that he's holding big but he still wants you out. The turn bet is either to try to get you to push or for you to fold a draw. I would say either aces or jacks. You can't fold this unless you can defiantly put him on Aces and you surely don't want to push. Call and see what he does on the river. Hopefully it'll make him nervous and he checks the river to you. (this is the type of hand that kills me)

By the way....I just encountered your UTG and busted him. I took his last $3.75.

Woohoo, way to go Jimbo! He left my table with about $20 that day, which is about the same as he had when I joined the table.


Your read is about what mine was. Right from the start I was worried about AA or KK, and I read the flop bet the same as you. The turn bet made me suspicious though.

 

[titans4ever]

Double his bet to define your hand now. If you do it on the turn, it is the same as calling a bet he will do on the river. If you do it now you will get him to fold now and you win 100% of the time. A call allows the draw to see the river and catch the 20%.

If he calls and the draw fails he will more than likely check anyway. If he has AA or KK he will more than likely fire right back on the turn and you can now fold with more confidence that you are beat.

 

[ChuckTs]

You haven't defined your's or your opponent's hand at all by calling so much; for all we know he could be 3-betting light with crap and just c-betting. Reraise preflop to say $3 and act based on your reads (if he's a TAG, consider folding, if he's LAG then call).

We can't call down with QQ and fold this turn on such a non-threatening board. As played, I probably push; his second bet doesn't scream strength to me and I'm starting to think he's slowing down with his c-betting.

 

[NineLions]

Double his bet to define your hand now. If you do it on the turn, it is the same as calling a bet he will do on the river. If you do it now you will get him to fold now and you win 100% of the time. A call allows the draw to see the river and catch the 20%.

If he calls and the draw fails he will more than likely check anyway. If he has AA or KK he will more than likely fire right back on the turn and you can now fold with more confidence that you are beat.

I like this idea. To this point I haven't defined my hand at all, which, if I were in his position, would worry me unless I had AA.

 

[JimboJim]

You haven't defined your's or your opponent's hand at all by calling so much; for all we know he could be 3-betting light with crap and just c-betting. Reraise preflop to say $3 and act based on your reads (if he's a TAG, consider folding, if he's LAG then call).

We can't call down with QQ and fold this turn on such a non-threatening board. As played, I probably push; his second bet doesn't scream strength to me and I'm starting to think he's slowing down with his c-betting.

If you raise then you gotta push. Any raise will put most of your stack in there. I think he's strong but he's starting to doubt his strength. The reads say you have him beat but if not you still can't give a stronger hand much thought just because of his actions. Call or Push...only options.

 

[NineLions]

You haven't defined your's or your opponent's hand at all by calling so much; for all we know he could be 3-betting light with crap and just c-betting. Reraise preflop to say $3 and act based on your reads (if he's a TAG, consider folding, if he's LAG then call).

We can't call down with QQ and fold this turn on such a non-threatening board. As played, I probably push; his second bet doesn't scream strength to me and I'm starting to think he's slowing down with his c-betting.

That's what I've been thinking. I don't repop reraises with QQ, but especially in this circumstance I probably should have as the first raise, even though it's UTG, may mean almost nothing because UTG is so LAG.


Question for you Chuck; if UTG wasn't LAG, would generally repop QQ preflop in this situation?

 

[ChuckTs]

Question for you Chuck; if UTG wasn't LAG, would generally repop QQ preflop in this situation?

Not sure about that. I'm a little too aggressive with pocket pairs, but I think the best play vs. a TAG raise and TAG reraise would be to just smooth call. I think my action would depend completely on the players and exactly what type of playing style they are.

The problem with smooth calling is when you have an overpair, like in your example. You really don't know if you're ahead vs AK or a smaller pair or whatever, or if you're way behind vs AA/KK. I think it's better to risk a small bet ($3) preflop to define your hand rather than stacking off for $7 postflop with an unsure overpair.

 

[NineLions]

Not sure about that. I'm a little too aggressive with pocket pairs, but I think the best play vs. a TAG raise and TAG reraise would be to just smooth call. I think my action would depend completely on the players and exactly what type of playing style they are.

The problem with smooth calling is when you have an overpair, like in your example. You really don't know if you're ahead vs AK or a smaller pair or whatever, or if you're way behind vs AA/KK. I think it's better to risk a small bet ($3) preflop to define your hand rather than stacking off for $7 postflop with an unsure overpair.

Alright. Thanks for the insight. It's true; it's gets awfully expensive later on to try to define things later. That's why, as Jimbo mentioned, I'm running out of cash to make any moves.

 

[NineLions]

And thanks everyone for your thoughts.


As for what happened, I guessed that he was having some misgivings, so I pushed. As he hesitated, I got more and more comfortable with the idea that he didn't have AA or KK.


*** TURN *** [6h 3c 9h] 3♦
Alex916F: bets $2.90
Ninelions: raises $3.70 to $6.60 and is all-in
Alex916F: calls $3.70
*** RIVER *** [6h 3c 9h 3d] 9♦
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Alex916F: shows [Jd Js] (two pair, Jacks and Nines)
Ninelions: shows [Qd Qs] (two pair, Queens and Nines)
Ninelions collected $19.85 from pot

 

[DeadoneD1]

Ive read this twice..where did I go wrong?

Alex is LAG? loose aggressive? that means if he had
4 hearts or the 3 his bet would have been much larger?
possibly all-in?

 

[Prolaznik]

Hm, it depends of the table and situation, after UTG raise and MP reraise - you should consider folding.

In a cash I game I find QQ pretty hard to fold preflop, unless there's a raise, re-raise, and a re-re-raise, or, someone goes crazy and repops a huge amount. In a tournament it might be a different matter since survival is key, but here, you're right, I'm afraid of KK or AA with the raise, but I'm not going to lay it down yet. He, like me, couldn't have failed to notice that UTG was loose so both of us are probably thinking he might have any semi-decent hand, rather than giving him full UTG-raise credit, which in turn, lowers the range of what MP might be reraising with.

A more aggressive player than me might have repopped preflop with QQ to define my own hand, and if I had AA or KK I would have but with QQ I'm only ahead of JJ, TT, and maybe racing AK or AQ. I don't think he's re-raising with 99, but that's only my guess at the time.

Well, you DID consider folding, but decided to stay after reasonable analysis .
You have my full respect...

 

[ginNjuice]

At this point I'm still wondering what the chances are he's on KK or AA.

This is an article from Expert Insight.com written by Phil Gordon that will help answer this question for you. I didn't include the chart that he has along with this so check out the website if you want to see it.

I was playing in a sit and go tournament at Full Tilt a few days ago with my fiancee looking on. We were down to three-handed, all the stacks were about the same, though I was the short stack. The blinds were very high -- the average stack was about 12 big blinds. I had 2-2 on the button. I raised all-in and was called by 6-6. I went broke.

"That was a really bad play, Phil. How can you go all-in there?" she said.

I protested vigorously: "Honey, it is well against the odds that either of my opponents will have a higher pocket pair. With only 12 big blinds, I'm either all-in or I fold in this situation. Doing anything else is just crazy, I think. Especially because we're already in the money, and the difference between second and third place isn't very significant."

"Well, I think it's much more likely for them to have a pocket pair. What are the exact odds?" she asked.

I didn't know off the top of my head, which just seemed to give her more ammunition for her argument. It is hard to argue odds when you don't know them. So, I set off to do some math so I could "prove" to her that I was right. In the process, I "discovered" a general mathematical formula that everyone can use when arguing with a significant other.

I'm calling this rule the "Gordon Pair Principle" or GPP. I've always wanted a theorem named after me, and so here it is. A few years back, I got zero credit for naming the "Rule of 4 and 2," and I'm a little on tilt about it. Now, I'm not claiming that I discovered the "Rule of 4 and 2," but I do claim naming it and referring to it in print as such for the first time (see my book "Poker: The Real Deal").

So, here goes.

The Gordon Pair Principle

Let C = percent chance someone left to act has a bigger pocket pair Let N = number of players left to act Let R = number of higher ranks than your pocket pair (i.e., if you have Q-Q, there are two ranks higher. If you have 8-8, there are six ranks higher)

Then, C = (N x R) / 2


Some examples:

You have pockets 10s and there are six players left to act. Someone will have a bigger pocket pair about 12 percent of the time.

You have pocket kings under the gun in a 10-handed game. You'll be up against pocket aces (and probably broke) about 4.5 percent of the time.

Now, this formula isn't exact, but it is a damned close approximation. It's definitely close enough to use when arguing with your significant other. Of course, I showed her this calculation after about an hour of work and she still thinks I made a stupid play despite the fact that my 2-2 is the best hand there 88 percent of the time.

Good luck at the tables. Better luck arguing the subtleties of no-limit with your significant other.

 

[NineLions]

Ive read this twice..where did I go wrong?

Alex is LAG? loose aggressive? that means if he had
4 hearts or the 3 his bet would have been much larger?
possibly all-in?

No, UTG, germany, is LAG. Normally, especially UTG, a raise means a good hand, but because germany is LAG his preflop raise doesn't necessarily mean he has a hand normally considered worthy of raising, especially from that position. Because I think Alex also knows this about germany, his re-raise may not necessarily mean what a normal re-raise means either.

 

[NineLions]

Well, you DID consider folding, but decided to stay after reasonable analysis .
You have my full respect...

Well thanks. I don't know that I'm worthy of it, but thanks.

 

[F Paulsson]

I think he has 2 hearts in his hand and one of them is 3

I would fold here

Is this serious?