Poker algorithms

[Nuts2727]

As many of us know, online poker uses algorithms for dealing cards and making hands. ie: after flopping a flush draw, you have a 19% chance of hitting your flush. So on any given site, that draw will come 19% of the time across all tables played.
With that in mind, can anyone tell me if these algorithms take into account the player at all? ie: winrate, roi, profit, etc.
I recently started playing on pokerbros a few weeks ago and they show in App stats. I was consistently holding an roi between 35% and 45% the first couple of weeks. Then I won a smaller tourney that shot me up over 75% roi. After that I've been loosing left and right, every draw is hit against me or just simply outkicked. I've moved down to 50% roi as of now, 4 days after being at 75%. It almost seems like it's trying to bring me down to a more realistic roi. Any insights would be appreciated.

 

[AllenKll]

I have to say that its a pretty cynical view to believe that all poker sites are rigged like you mention. While it's possible that a few disreputable sites are rigged, if the major one were, there would be major lawsuits.

A number of poker sites have gone so far as to guarantee to some degree the randomness of their RNG. There are certifications that can be had for that.

I seriously can not wrap my ahead around that particular type of poker rigging. That would be kind of insane. As an IT professional the horse power involved to handle all those calculations, over every hand, for every player, at every table, around the world, is mind boggling.

 

[Nuts2727]

I have to say that its a pretty cynical view to believe that all poker sites are rigged like you mention. While it's possible that a few disreputable sites are rigged, if the major one were, there would be major lawsuits.

A number of poker sites have gone so far as to guarantee to some degree the randomness of their RNG. There are certifications that can be had for that.

I seriously can not wrap my ahead around that particular type of poker rigging. That would be kind of insane. As an IT professional the horse power involved to handle all those calculations, over every hand, for every player, at every table, around the world, is mind boggling.

I'm not saying rigged, persay. But wondering if there could be some calculation in the algorithm that takes player stats into account. Like if you win a big tourney, then what are the odds of you winning another big one right after? And somehow these odds are imputed into the algorithm.

 

[AllenKll]

I'm not saying rigged, persay. But wondering if there could be some calculation in the algorithm that takes player stats into account. Like if you win a big tourney, then what are the odds of you winning another big one right after? And somehow these odds are imputed into the algorithm.

I don't believe that is the case either... The odds of winning a big tournament are extremely low no matter how good of a player you are, the odds of winning two in a row are infinitesimal.

What you're seeing is just normal variance. I've actually won back to back tournaments once... and I know I was having a very lucky day. But even given the same players in the same seats of a SnG, and they all played the same strategy, there's no telling who would win in the end.

 

[dexagonal]

I have a two thoughts on this:

1.) the site (especially those without chat, though now with Chat GPT, doesn't matter) has bot accounts with multiple user IDs to ensure that in addition to the entry fee commission, the house gets a % of the prize pool
2.) the site makes money by having people enter more tournaments - the algorithms speed the process along by inducing all-in betting activity and then tilting the river towards the big stack to knock more players out faster, thereby generating more revenues as exited players migrate to new games

I think both scenarios are plausible. Likely only 3-5 people at the company know (CEO, CTO, CFO, head programmer, maybe Counsel). All are getting a percentage of the uptake, likely through offshore accounts. And, as long as the money keeps flowing into their account, they will never come clean. (And if they did, they would be complicit in the fraud and go to jail.) The site can a) toggle on or off these mechanisms (like if they think someone might be auditing), b) toggle on or off for specific players (say following a new deposit for 5 days), and c) toggle on/off for their bot accounts.

People like me are great for their information campaigns. They can say I'm a crappy, paranoid player (but why do I cash at wsop?), and point to the agencies that accredit their site validating their randomness. Anyway, I just uninstall them and hope someday to find an honest site. Enough...

 

[pltelles]

I believe that odds in online games do not represent reality. I think this happens because these bookmakers need and do have a lot of bad beats, so that users play tilted and bet more and lose more. It's my theory.

 

[TeUnit]

The random number generator does not look at who the player is, it does not look and see if they are on the approved list of winners, it just randomly generates numbers.

 

[Vitorbismark]

I believe there is true randomness to online poker tables.
We only noticed something strange when we were losing.
We should look that we win a lot with good hands too.

 

[Andyreas]

Then I won a smaller tourney that shot me up over 75% roi. After that I've been loosing left and right, every draw is hit against me or just simply outkicked. I've moved down to 50% roi as of now, 4 days after being at 75%. It almost seems like it's trying to bring me down to a more realistic roi.

You are somehow answering your own question yourself:
Winning a tournament is a lovely result of positive variance. To do so, you must be "lucky" many times: hit the boards hard and have people pay you.

After such a good run, it's somewhat expected to also see the other side of the variance which is running bad: your draws or outs rarely hit and you do not cash in your tournaments.

It's randomness at its pure form.

For all of us, positive variance is simply just a lot more easy to accept rather than the bad kind of variance. 🤷🏻‍♂️

We will always remember when our Aces got cracked by some junk hand but quickly forget when we cracked them with our non-favourite hand. 🙂

 

[Luvepoker]

The algorithms don't know who you are or anything that has happened to you over time. There just randomly put out the cards. Do remember a 75% ROI is pretty darn high and should go down. Also winning a tournament even if small affect you ROI a lot at that time. What your experiencing is normal so please don't worry about it.