It does seem to be very, very hard to cash in Pokerstars in MTTs. I am big favourite very often and get serious bad beats there. I cash far far more often in 888.
This is absolute trollop. As in BS. As in, the brown stuff.
It is *possible* that players suck on 888 compared to Stars, but I call bullshit.
It is hard to cash in poker in general because people got a LOT better over the course of COVID.
At the beginning of Covid, I was raking it in. Now, my profits have dropped down and I'm funding my
bankroll from a bank account, which TOTALLY sucks.
But this is not a PokerStars issue.
Losing (over th mediumk to long term) is ALWAYS your own fault.
Sure, there is variance. But variance hits the short term only, and doesn't really factor in over the long term unless you have a losing strategy.
Get a HUD. Record ALL your hands.
Review your data.
You will quickly find that you are losing because of predictable leaks and mistakes rather than bad beats.
Part of the reason we remember these hands more is that MOST of the hands we win, never even get to showdown. Our opponents KNOW they have lost before the river and usually bail out, pull their ripcord and parachute to the ground safely.
But when hands go to the river, there is clearly a smaller gap in the hands, or a better chance at hitting.
So which hands tend to call the flop and try to see the river?
You guessed it... Made hands, premiums and suited connectors.
Which ones are most likely to result in a monster hand/bad beat?
You guessed it... Made hands, premiums and suited connectors.
Made hands start out good, and generally get worse as the run out occurs.
Premiums start out decent and can improve.
Suited connectors are just trying to hit that monster.
Playing in the micros, people quite commonly chase (and make) flushes and straights.
In the
freerolls, this is where the big pots are won.
That's why you see so many people limping into pots from early positions.
That's also why I 3-bet a tonne in freerolls.
All this said, I AM convinced that Stars is programmed for action. I don't believe they have achieved the Nirvana of true randomness.
But I don't think I LOSE because of this. Generally, I lose because of bad decisions and poor discipline. I can play for several hours with discipline and then some turd gets on the table, disrespecting everyone, playing crap, and then you want to teach them a lesson, only to discover you were trailing and didn't even realise it.
I would like to see shuffle & deal algortihms and RNGs made publicly available/open source. Until then, I won't truly trust it.
There are certainly some sketchy things going on. (Which I will post about in a separate post).
Cheers,
JT