Is GTO poker starting to die?

[john2fingers]

Having spent months and months paying for subs to all the latest coaching, solvers etc, it was initially profitable and pretty much paid for itself but lately it feels like the end is nigh for this period of pokers constant evolution and I'm now questioning whether this is an investment I can continue to make. There has been a massive increase in pure gambling these last few months and no matter how optimally you play, this massive increase in players just playing any 2 cards in any position is becoming increasingly difficult to manipulate or profit from. This feels more than just a simple downswing on my part, I have spoken to everyone in my study group and the consensus is that there seems to be a pattern. We can't all be feeling the same downswing at the same time right?

I know the biggest site in the world has put huge emphasis and focus on fast format, bounty heavy games that promote pure gambling and this seems to be filtering through to other, more established sites too.

What are people's thoughts and experiences in regards to this?

 

[Tero]

Well, you didn't mention at what levels do you play?
I've been watching lately the Danish Twitch streamer Daniel Petersen who plays at very high levels sometimes. Some days ago he was complaining about that he can't make it in under $500 buy-in games. People just suck out all the time.
But in general I don't think that GTO is going anywhere. It just might not be there where we are.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Adapt.
Adapt to the situation... the players... the structure... etc. etc. etc.
Honestly sounds like some opportunities for exploiting the other player's tendencies.

And yes I do notice a move towards tournaments with faster structures, (shorter effective stacks in late game play) and tons of KO, PKO type tournaments. Many recreational players like to gamble... and they like the thought of being able to win 'something' even if it's just the value of their buyin.
We can adapt and work at learning ranges & odds we need for calling off in bounty situations.

Personally I have always preferred freezeouts and wasn't keen on playing the PKO's at first. I feel I've been forced to 'adapt'.
The Twitch poker streamer I watch the most happens to specialize in PKO/Bounty Tournaments and the site they play the most volume on is GGPoker. They do quite well in them. And the other streamer I watch regularly plays a mix of freezeouts & bountys. He didn't seem to care for bounty tournaments much before either but he's adapting and doing well also.

I know I've got a TON of work to do myself for PKO tournament play (for all tournament play really.... ahem... for ALL poker play period, lol).

I also find I need to work on my mental game when playing in Bounty tourneys, being prepared to 're-enter' in early levels and attempting to build a decent stack to sustain some donkings. Working towards more volume is helpful for me as well (it's less painful having your stack decimated at crucial spots in the tourney when you've got a bunch of other tables on the go).

Off-topic but for cashgame play I find some of the sites to be extremely aggro these days!

 

[pentazepam]

massive increase in players just playing any 2 cards in any position i

Wonderful.

You can't lose with a stronger range if you know how to play post-flop.

But you can't just use a chart or any RTA if you want to exploit them to the max.

 

[pentazepam]

Some days ago he was complaining about that he can't make it in under $500 buy-in games. People just suck out all the time.

Seriously. If he can't adapt he is blaming bad luck.

I suggest watching some other streamers.

If you get the money in with the best hand you should be happy no matter the result. There is no magic "suck out" skill.

 

[Station_Master]

If players are playing worse then that is good for making more money. Seriously, surely it can't be too hard to beat these players , you just need to not play GTO and exploit their mistakes.

 

[eetenor]

Having spent months and months paying for subs to all the latest coaching, solvers etc, it was initially profitable and pretty much paid for itself but lately it feels like the end is nigh for this period of pokers constant evolution and I'm now questioning whether this is an investment I can continue to make. There has been a massive increase in pure gambling these last few months and no matter how optimally you play, this massive increase in players just playing any 2 cards in any position is becoming increasingly difficult to manipulate or profit from. This feels more than just a simple downswing on my part, I have spoken to everyone in my study group and the consensus is that there seems to be a pattern. We can't all be feeling the same downswing at the same time right?

I know the biggest site in the world has put huge emphasis and focus on fast format, bounty heavy games that promote pure gambling and this seems to be filtering through to other, more established sites too.

What are people's thoughts and experiences in regards to this?

A Player playing any 2 will be very profitable for you but the variance swings will be enormous. So, if you are used to easy games where you are in control of passive players and just grinding out profit in that manner high variance games will be shocking to you but have nothing to do with invalidating GTO.

 

[LUKADONCICMVP]

poker is dead already was fun when it last.

 

[Jean-Guy]

GTO is not the Holy Grail. It is just a system, that you must know. Not the hardest job.

At a certain level in cash games where all players are TAG or LAG you must deviate from GTO whenever possible.

GTO claims to be unexploitable. I don’t subscribe to this point of view.

 

[EarnDAStack]

GTO is a baseline strategy from which once you've developed a default strategy you should be adapting to exploit each player's weaknesses.

I don't quite understand why people think that a optimal strategy is going to become less common as the games are becoming less profitable, if anything that would mean it's more important to develop a baseline unexploitable strategy. Are professional chess players using chess engines less now that chess is harder than it's ever been? It doesn't make any sense

Games are getting tougher because there's less money in the overall world economy due to a myriad of reasons. They aren't getting tougher because the fish you're playing against might be holding any two cards, that's proof there's still a lot of money to be made if you can get yourself at the right tables.

In the immortal words of Phil Galfond:

What do I do against over-aggressive opponents?

Make a lot of money...

GL

EDS

 

[ActuaryOfLife]

GTO is not the Holy Grail. It is just a system, that you must know. Not the hardest job.

At a certain level in cash games where all players are TAG or LAG you must deviate from GTO whenever possible.

GTO claims to be unexploitable. I don’t subscribe to this point of view.

I have no idea what GTO really is, but if scientists (in particular, mathematicians) have studied this then I'd say the "claim" is legit. xD
It's not pseudo-science that is being spread around on poker boards.

- notes to my freeroll-playing & nl2-playing dumbass: Maybe I should look it up and try to understand GTO, lmao.

 

[dreamer13]

GTO does not require adaptability. The strategy does not take into account the history of hands.GTO play is hard to exploit. This is what regulars use when they make polar big bets on the river. They may have both nuts and cards that didn't suit the board.Playing according to GTO will not be negative against any opponent. In the event that two opponents play according to the optimal strategy, which is possible only in a vacuum, it will end in a draw. Even at micro limits GTO will be useful - this is the best way to win and big wins.

 

[Jean-Guy]

I have no idea what GTO really is, but if scientists (in particular, mathematicians) have studied this then I'd say the "claim" is legit. xD
It's not pseudo-science that is being spread around on poker boards.

- notes to my freeroll-playing & nl2-playing dumbass: Maybe I should look it up and try to understand GTO, lmao.

GTO does not require adaptability. The strategy does not take into account the history of hands.GTO play is hard to exploit. This is what regulars use when they make polar big bets on the river. They may have both nuts and cards that didn't suit the board.Playing according to GTO will not be negative against any opponent. In the event that two opponents play according to the optimal strategy, which is possible only in a vacuum, it will end in a draw. Even at micro limits GTO will be useful - this is the best way to win and big wins.

GTO is usefull, but it is not unexploitable as it claims. There is no such thing as unexploitable poker.

Perfect poker does not exist. GTO is a shrewd math based system. Nothing more, nothing less.

Math does not beat psychology in poker. In time we will probably see a new system.

AI will perhaps incororate psychology in a new system. But only to a certain degree.

Mankind has refined psychology for 50.000 years. Should AI suddenly beat this. Unlikely.

 

[almir nicolau]

I believe that solvers indicate the best decision-making, but in the micro limits field, for example, they do not apply these solutions and have barely heard of them or have had access to them.
Poker continues to be the last human action when faced with situations and emotions.
Believe in order to become profitable wherever you play you must study the population and adapt a profitable strategy, so that these thoughts are not frequent in our minds.
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[TeUnit]

I think for most of the CC players, in the games they usually play, that exploitive play will have a higher return than GTO.

If you see players open limping with players sitting out, you can put away the GTO and focus on making exploitive plays.

 

[oriole]

GTO poker will never die because, in theory, it is the most optimal way to play against unknown opponents. However, I generally prefer an exploitative style because, in practice, players at small and mid-stakes rarely play optimally and can be exploited. At the highest level, though, you must master GTO.