When is a big river bet strong or weak?

[fundiver199]

As a general default big river bets tend to be strong or "underbluffed" in online micro and low stakes games. So as a default I will fold a lot, if the opponent bet close to full pot or overbet the river. There are however exceptions, and this hand was one of them. First this was heads-up, so we both have very wide ranges preflop. Second the opponent had min-bet the flop and turn, which does not look strong. And finally all draws missed and only hands like 66 or J6 improved on the river. So this time I decided to call, even though no worse hand should be betting full pot for value.

And sure enough the opponent was bluffing. If fact he did not even have a busted draw but just some completely random airball. Just to clarify even though the replay say "0+0", this was not a freeroll but a regular SnG on ACR. Dont remember the buyin, but it was somewhere between a $6.6 and $16.5 game. Moral of the story: If the opponent has not shown strength on previous streets, and his story makes no sense, then make him show it to you, even if he make a big "scary" bet on the river.

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[Andyreas]

Nice example, thank you!

Of course it was great that you had top pair (on the flop) which made the case a bit more clear.

Would you have also called with hands like 77-99 or Tx?

 

[fundiver199]

Would you have also called with hands like 77-99 or Tx?

That would indeed have been a bit more tough. J no kicker block JJ, JT and QJ-AJ, which are potential value bets. Weaker pairs obviously dont. There is also the risk, that maybe he is playing really weird with an in between hand like another J no kicker or AT. And then its obviously better to chop or win than to lose. So J no kicker is definitely a call before any lower ranking hand. And most likely it is the bottom of my calling range. But seeing, what he showed up with, that might actually be a mistake, and maybe any two pair should call here?

 

[Luvepoker]

Great post and I love the call. I would have done the same here as well.

The thing that gets me on this hand when your check calling of small pets I seriously didn't put you on it a Jack would be my thought what will flush draws straight draws there's lots of hands that this river didn't help for you. I think it's off was actually a bit crazy because there are hands he's speeding here but he just checks behind. If I were playing this hand I would have been a little surprised to see the Jack that you had but the 9 kicker it makes a lot more sense with I just don't see any reason at all why he would bluff here. It just makes zero sense to bet pot on this river. If it was an over card to the Jack or maybe the third heart it would have made a little more sense as a bluff.
You're dead right on lower stakes people don't bluff enough but the one thing that catches me on this I've seen this before from players and more times than not it is a bluff. Of course that doesn't mean we can call as often as we would like. I think 10X I might have called but it would depended on my thoughts on the player as well. I may not call as loosely as I should but there are players that we know just do this. 77 – 99 I think I would lean towards a fold. While we may be ahead we are behind A 10 and as I said you didn't raise the Jack so he might overplay the 10 but we would still lose with lower pairs

 

[christovam]

Most players are too passive on the fifth card. They check holding good hands, with which they should bet for value, and also with draws that didn't hit, with which they should bluff.

 

[Gritz18]

If the opponent has not shown strength on previous streets, and his story makes no sense, then make him show it to you, even if he make a big "scary" bet on the river.

It was clear that the villain was bluffing when he repeated the two bets on the flop and tuned by putting in 1bb and then bet pot on the river, even I would call that bet.

I learned one thing from a great player: if you're going to bluff a hand, tell a good story, otherwise it's unlikely to go through.

 

[fundiver199]

I learned one thing from a great player: if you're going to bluff a hand, tell a good story, otherwise it's unlikely to go through.

Exactly. What is the story of that min-bet on the turn and then full pot on the river? That he turned trips or a full house and was trying to induce a raise? Or he min-bet 66 (for what reason?) and then rivered a 2-outer? Both of that is possible, I guess, but its far more easy for him to have nothing especially on a paired board, which mean, there are more hands, that missed. So while I need to be good 34% of the time to call a pot sized bet, here I think, I am good way more often than this. Like maybe 60% of the time or even more.

 

[Iryna Stryzheuskaya]

I think watching your opponent play for a while will tell you if he is capable of this action.

 

[Phoenix Wright]

Since most recreational players under-bluff the river, then this means that most large river bets by these players are strong (for value). Of course, where this becomes trickier is against more experienced players who are more capable of bluffing. It REALLY depends on the context though. For example, a soft freeroll might be just the opposite regardless as people are bluffing left and right for fun (including the River) and they don't care because it isn't real money.

 

[Mr.$t0k]

This is a good advice, i hope you write your expirience and your strategy in the future
Good Luck!!