What is the truth about the variance..?

[LuzerGod]

Well, I'm new to Poker. I understand the strength of hands, a bit about table positions, and about betting and blinds. However, one thing I still don't understand is variance. I've played Poker at real tables a few times and noticed a completely different outcome in online poker.

At a real table, most of the rounds don’t yield more than pairs or two pairs. Trips, straights, flushes, etc., are extremely difficult to come by. However, in online Poker, I’ve noticed an anomaly: the vast number of times these combinations appear in rounds. To make matters worse, these sequences seem to concentrate in the hands of a few players, as if they were chosen. I’ve played on various sites. On some, this is less common; on others, it’s blatant.

I really don’t understand this anomaly. Some people claim to have done statistical analyses on millions of hands played by millions of players and call this anomaly— which only seems to happen in online Poker—variance. So, here’s my question for more experienced players: is there any level of manipulation in these online games, or is it purely random?

 

[Poker Orifice]

Well, I'm new to Poker. I understand the strength of hands, a bit about table positions, and about betting and blinds. However, one thing I still don't understand is variance. I've played Poker at real tables a few times and noticed a completely different outcome in online Poker.

At a real table, most of the rounds don’t yield more than pairs or two pairs. Trips, straights, flushes, etc., are extremely difficult to come by. However, in online Poker, I’ve noticed an anomaly: the vast number of times these combinations appear in rounds. To make matters worse, these sequences seem to concentrate in the hands of a few players, as if they were chosen. I’ve played on various sites. On some, this is less common; on others, it’s blatant.

I really don’t understand this anomaly. Some people claim to have done statistical analyses on millions of hands played by millions of players and call this anomaly— which only seems to happen in online Poker—variance. So, here’s my question for more experienced players: is there any level of manipulation in these online games, or is it purely random?

Well I'd like to suggest that YOU are already an existing member and were growing tired of your 'rigged theory' posts not getting the recognition you'd hoped for.... so 'perhaps' you tried a different approach > made a new account and cried about it some more.

Call it a hunch.

If I'm incorrect in my assumption, Google search No Limit Texas Hold'em 'variance'.

 

[bullishwwd]

Could be that there are so many more hands played on-line (faster play) thus you'd see more quality hands (at least it seems so). Computer generated hands naturally will also be considerably different than playing 'live', at least I would think so. Hope this helps, but does it really matter? Things like this will need to be considered when playing poker on-line as different sites will certainly play quite differently sometimes because of their unique algorithms.

GL on the felts.

 

[odonob]

I’m not so sure there is a thing called variance. A bit of a nonsense as it implies that if you lose you will win at a later unspecified period in the future. This is not the case. If you lose all your chips then that is that, there is no coming back. I think it’s one of those theories banded around in poker which in reality does not exist.

 

[Suns of Beaches]

Different sites will certainly play quite differently sometimes because of their unique algorithms.

GL on the felts.

Actually those sites play differently not because of algorithms but because of differences in player pools on different limits.

The game in it's core is the same.

 

[LuzerGod]

I’m not so sure there is a thing called variance. A bit of a nonsense as it implies that if you lose you will win at a later unspecified period in the future. This is not the case. If you lose all your chips then that is that, there is no coming back. I think it’s one of those theories banded around in poker which in reality does not exist.

well, some "pro-players" said that is real. Idk but its strange the diference between online poker and live poker. Some times seems suspecious. Idk, maybe its just coz i'm new in poker.. But thanks for your comment

 

[Suns of Beaches]

I’m not so sure there is a thing called variance. A bit of a nonsense as it implies that if you lose you will win at a later unspecified period in the future. This is not the case. If you lose all your chips then that is that, there is no coming back. I think it’s one of those theories banded around in poker which in reality does not exist.

Yes but u can "comeback" in a later game. It for sure exist, its actually a fact and not an opinion. U missinterpret It because u think only about that one game where u bust.

 

[LuzerGod]

Could be that there are so many more hands played on-line (faster play) thus you'd see more quality hands (at least it seems so). Computer generated hands naturally will also be considerably different than playing 'live', at least I would think so. Hope this helps, but does it really matter? Things like this will need to be considered when playing poker on-line as different sites will certainly play quite differently sometimes because of their unique algorithms.

GL on the felts.

Could be it, and the fact i'm new in poker too, well, anyway thanks! I'm trying to learn poker in all aspects, but this especific point is hard to me..

 

[ph_il]

Could be that there are so many more hands played on-line (faster play) thus you'd see more quality hands (at least it seems so). Computer generated hands naturally will also be considerably different than playing 'live', at least I would think so. Hope this helps, but does it really matter? Things like this will need to be considered when playing poker on-line as different sites will certainly play quite differently sometimes because of their unique algorithms.

GL on the felts.

this, but structure is different.

there is no 2nl live, but skill level of 2nl online is equal to 200nl live. yet you're going to see a lot more people folding in 200nl live than you will in 2nl online.

not only will you more hands dealt online but you'll see more hands making it the river, players willing to chase draws, over committing their hands, etc. that means seeing more beats and mid / bad hands winning than compared to live.

 

[rhoudini]

I`ve read some replies here, and I feel I need to correct some comments.

First of all, variance is NOT an exclusive poker concept. It is a concept developed in the statistics, and we might experience it in our daily lives as well, even those who have never played poker. Variance is simply the difference between some observed result and the expected result of the statistical analysis.

Let's use poker as an example. Imagine that you went all-in 10 times with AA vs. some other hand and, on average, you expect to win 80% of the time, therefore you were expecting to win 8 out of those 10 times. But you observed that in those 10 hands, you lost 4 times, instead of 2. Well, you are experiencing a negative variance of 20%, because you were supposed to lose 20% but lost 40%. If you had won 9 out of 10 hands, you would experience a positive variance of 10%, and so on.

Variance can also me measured in terms of expected winnings, and all poker trackers (like Hold'em Manager, Hand2Note or Poker Tracker) will do this for you automatically, and they will calculate how many big blinds you were supposed to win based on all your all-in situations, and they will also show your current profit. Then you can mostly determine if you are lucky or not. But this only works for all-in situations where we can calculate the exact expected result, because we can see both players' cards.

It is important to realize that the smaller the sample size, the bigger the observed variance (usually). You can toss a coin and it might hit the same result 5 times in a row. Despite unlikely, it is possible. But toss the same coin 1,000 times, and you'll see a very close result to 50%-50%. But you will still observe some deviation, like 52 to 48%. Toss it 1,000,000 times, and maybe this deviation goes to 50.1% to 49.9%. And as long as you keep tossing, the result will get closer to 50-50% (if your coin is totally random).

But what about poker? Well, poker is played with (only) 52 cards. But equities run quite close. AA can lose 10 times in a row and believe me, that is unlikely but happens a lot! And mathematics say that it will happen to someone at some time. If you have never experienced a period of bad luck, prepare for it, because it will arrive. I hope you now understand what is variance.

 

[LuzerGod]

Well I'd like to suggest that YOU are already an existing member and were growing tired of your 'rigged theory' posts not getting the recognition you'd hoped for.... so 'perhaps' you tried a different approach > made a new account and cried about it some more.

Call it a hunch.

If I'm incorrect in my assumption, Google search No Limit Texas Hold'em 'variance'.

No bro, this is my first account, but thanks, the others made my mind clear..

 

[LuzerGod]

I`ve read some replies here, and I feel I need to correct some comments.

First of all, variance is NOT an exclusive poker concept. It is a concept developed in the statistics, and we might experience it in our daily lives as well, even those who have never played poker. Variance is simply the difference between some observed result and the expected result of the statistical analysis.

Let's use poker as an example. Imagine that you went all-in 10 times with AA vs. some other hand and, on average, you expect to win 80% of the time, therefore you were expecting to win 8 out of those 10 times. But you observed that in those 10 hands, you lost 4 times, instead of 2. Well, you are experiencing a negative variance of 20%, because you were supposed to lose 20% but lost 40%. If you had won 9 out of 10 hands, you would experience a positive variance of 10%, and so on.

Variance can also me measured in terms of expected winnings, and all poker trackers (like Hold'em Manager, Hand2Note or Poker Tracker) will do this for you automatically, and they will calculate how many big blinds you were supposed to win based on all your all-in situations, and they will also show your current profit. Then you can mostly determine if you are lucky or not. But this only works for all-in situations where we can calculate the exact expected result, because we can see both players' cards.

It is important to realize that the smaller the sample size, the bigger the observed variance (usually). You can toss a coin and it might hit the same result 5 times in a row. Despite unlikely, it is possible. But toss the same coin 1,000 times, and you'll see a very close result to 50%-50%. But you will still observe some deviation, like 52 to 48%. Toss it 1,000,000 times, and maybe this deviation goes to 50.1% to 49.9%. And as long as you keep tossing, the result will get closer to 50-50% (if your coin is totally random).

But what about poker? Well, poker is played with (only) 52 cards. But equities run quite close. AA can lose 10 times in a row and believe me, that is unlikely but happens a lot! And mathematics say that it will happen to someone at some time. If you have never experienced a period of bad luck, prepare for it, because it will arrive. I hope you now understand what is variance.

I understood in parts. I understand that the concept of variability is not exclusive to poker, but that short-term poker has greater variability, precisely because of the greater number of possibilities and combinations, do I understand correctly? Sorry if I'm being too layman...
It's not the same thing to draw two numbers compared to drawing 52.

 

[seiya1989]

I don't think there's much to understand about variance, you have to accept it or dedicate yourself to something else. You just have to focus on what your responsibility is in the game, your behavior, your effort, your actions and the consequences of your actions. The actions and behavior of others is something that we cannot control, so we should not give it importance.

 

[Gutshot Gus]

The variance is how the cards fall and if they make you a winner or loser.
Variance is the luck of the gods.

 

[rhoudini]

I understood in parts. I understand that the concept of variability is not exclusive to poker, but that short-term poker has greater variability, precisely because of the greater number of possibilities and combinations, do I understand correctly? Sorry if I'm being too layman...
It's not the same thing to draw two numbers compared to drawing 52.

You are right! No need to apologize, we don't start knowing it all. But basically, this is not a concept intrinsic to poker. When you are dealing with randomness, you can expect some results based on probabilities, but these results can deviate from what is expected. How to know what to expect? Well, results in poker are finite, so computers can calculate quite fast all the possibilities of cards on the board when your AA faces a hand like KK, and they know you can expect to win a certain percentage.

But remember that variance only makes sense for these visible results of all-in situations. People can make all sorts of bad plays and still blame variance because at that specific time they were favorites but ended up losing, but poker is much more than all-in situations. In fact, most pots are won without showdown. All these things are not measured by variance; and you win 100% of the pot when you make opponents fold.

But for a beginner, just think of variance as this deviation from what is expected when we know the cards -- when there is an all-in and players show their cards. That's when we can say something about luck at that specific time or not.

 

[infonazar]

Well, I'm new to Poker. I understand the strength of hands, a bit about table positions, and about betting and blinds. However, one thing I still don't understand is variance. I've played Poker at real tables a few times and noticed a completely different outcome in online Poker.

At a real table, most of the rounds don’t yield more than pairs or two pairs. Trips, straights, flushes, etc., are extremely difficult to come by. However, in online Poker, I’ve noticed an anomaly: the vast number of times these combinations appear in rounds. To make matters worse, these sequences seem to concentrate in the hands of a few players, as if they were chosen. I’ve played on various sites. On some, this is less common; on others, it’s blatant.

I really don’t understand this anomaly. Some people claim to have done statistical analyses on millions of hands played by millions of players and call this anomaly— which only seems to happen in online Poker—variance. So, here’s my question for more experienced players: is there any level of manipulation in these online games, or is it purely random?

It doesn't really matter. If your bankroll is growing, it doesn't matter whether there is manipulation or not. It's not correct to compare live and online game, because they are essentially two completely different games.

 

[fundiver199]

Well, I'm new to Poker. I understand the strength of hands, a bit about table positions, and about betting and blinds. However, one thing I still don't understand is variance. I've played Poker at real tables a few times and noticed a completely different outcome in online Poker.

The pace in live poker is much lower than online, and if you have only played live poker "a few times", its no wonder, you have not seen all that many strong hands shown down.

Some people claim to have done statistical analyses on millions of hands played by millions of players and call this anomaly— which only seems to happen in online Poker—variance.

People, who have done this sort of analysis, have not found any anomaly, which they call variance. On the countrary they have found, that everything happen at pretty much the frequency, it is supposed to.

So, here’s my question for more experienced players: is there any level of manipulation in these online games, or is it purely random?

In general online poker is not rigged. Of course their might be some small sketchy site or App, that actually is, but has not been exposed yet. But the major sites are not. They are highly regulated in many countries and would lose their licenses and business, if it was found, that they cheat their customers this way. Remember that most poker sites also have a casino section, where people play with the house. And if for instance the house share in roulette is supposed to be 1:37, it would clearly not be acceptable to regulators, if it was rigged to be any higher than that.

 

[Artbart805]

online or offline?

 

[Kinalha]

Well, I'm new to Poker. I understand the strength of hands, a bit about table positions, and about betting and blinds. However, one thing I still don't understand is variance. I've played Poker at real tables a few times and noticed a completely different outcome in online Poker.

At a real table, most of the rounds don’t yield more than pairs or two pairs. Trips, straights, flushes, etc., are extremely difficult to come by. However, in online Poker, I’ve noticed an anomaly: the vast number of times these combinations appear in rounds. To make matters worse, these sequences seem to concentrate in the hands of a few players, as if they were chosen. I’ve played on various sites. On some, this is less common; on others, it’s blatant.

I really don’t understand this anomaly. Some people claim to have done statistical analyses on millions of hands played by millions of players and call this anomaly— which only seems to happen in online Poker—variance. So, here’s my question for more experienced players: is there any level of manipulation in these online games, or is it purely random?

"at a real table..." you are playing and watching one hand for a seconds or can be a few minutes. Online poker you can open 20 tables and see these things happen 5,6x or more at the same time

 

[puzzlefish]

Variance is just a statistical term that describes expected differences in outcomes in a given system over time.

When you start talking about anomalies, you would do best to have some solid data to back up what you are saying. You're definitely not the first to say that you are noticing these things.

Are you really seeing more draws completing online vs. live or are you just seeing more showdowns in general - due to more hands being played (general higher hand volume and dealing rate) at lower stakes (wider ranges, higher tolerance for risk)?

Are the sequences really concentrated on particular "chosen" players or is it really no different than someone running hot, whether it is online or live?

There's a certain level of analysis that is done to make sites look credible. Whether that's enough or not for you to keep playing is ultimately up to you. I personally can't say for certain whether there is manipulation by a site or not. I definitely can say that there's cheating going on, in the past and in the present.

 

[fundiver199]

Variance is just a statistical term that describes expected differences in outcomes in a given system over time.

Exactly. Its a very common misconception to confuse the term variance with bad beats, losing to bad players or sites being rigged. But variance is simply a statistical term for the luck element in poker. Like if we have 10BB in CO, open shove 66, and get called by JJ, then this is negative variance, because we made the right play but got unlucky, that someone behind woke up with a bigger pair. Or if we make the same move, and everyone folds, then that is positive variance, because most likely this mean, we got lucky, that they all had weak hands, they could not call us with.

And this is also a huge part of variance. If we constantly run into big hands, like someone having pocket aces, or they flopped a set against our top pair, then we are going to lose, even if we are the best player in the game. Or conversely if these situations only happen rarely, or if we are the one, who constantly have pocket aces or flop a set, then its very easy for us to win, even if we make substantial mistakes. And this mean, we are sunrunning, but often people dont fully appreciate this.

 

[yuriko oyama]

If there is "manipulation", I have already benefited and harmed by it, so since there are millions of players wanting the same thing, I think it's normal that I'm not always the "chosen one" to win a certain tournament.

 

[Newzooozooo]

Hi
If you compare, for example, a game on a computer in a car simulator with real driving, the difference will also be very noticeable to you. Therefore, you should not compare the game online and the game live

 

[Andrii Lubentsov]

The truth about variance is that it is unpredictable.

 

[fundiver199]

Hi
If you compare, for example, a game on a computer in a car simulator with real driving, the difference will also be very noticeable to you. Therefore, you should not compare the game online and the game live

Of course there are many differences between live and online poker including the whole social aspect of live poker. However the comparison with a car simulator is poorly chosen, because it is very difficult for a computer to perfectly replicate the sensations of driving. But when it comes to dealing a deck of 52 cards randomly, a computer can do this just as well if not even better than a human dealer.