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Our final section of our learning series on Poker Studying, Part 4B focuses on reviewing tournament hand histories. Here we focus on three tournament hands that were recently posted in the forum. Again, where possible, we have NOT looked at any spoilers before going through the hand to ensure our analysis is not results oriented by knowing the outcome. Let's get started.
Tournament Hand #1: 37BB call in a $33 MTT - Is Folding a Mistake?
We start with a $33 MTT where we find a very nice Ace-Queen suited in spades and 36.65BB.
Pre-flop
Hero sees action opened to them and raise just over 2 BB only to see Villain on the button three-bet shove 37.1BB. We're now faced with a decision whether or not we should call off our tournament life.
Without any additional analytics on our villain, let's assume that they are playing a fairly standard 9% PFR - putting their range in this category:
For this analysis, we're going to list the number of hands for our opponent to get a better idea of our options.
We don't know at what stage the tournament is at, which is unfortunate because that really matters and should affect your decision making. Here's why:
The hero folds which seems to make sense but we absolutely need to note what villain did here, three-bet shoving 37BB like they did. If we pick up a monster, we want to be able to give the villain a chance to do this again, and call off with a much more powerful hand.
Takeaways
When we dissect a tournament a tournament hand, the type and stage of the tournament matter. The hero indicated in their post that they would easily call if the raise was 20BB - but if we are willing to call off more than half of our stack pre-flop, but not the entire stack, what are we missing to understand that?
Tournament Hand #2: Early Levels of Bounty MTT - Are We Calling For an Early KO?
Let's go to the early stages of a bounty tournament now to see when pocket aces are vulnerable:
Pre-Flop
Hero starts with 59BB and the big blind - our villain - has 25BB. Hero finds pocket aces and raises to 2.2BB, to which he gets called by the cut-off, the small blind and the big blind. Not the ideal scenerio for aces being against three hands but what else can you do?
The Flop
The pot sits at 9.76BB when we see action checked to us, and make a c-bet of essentially 5BB which pushes out the CO and the SB. The big blind however, shoves their remaining stack. Do we call?
There's a lot to consider here - so let's start with the math part. After our c-bet the pot has 14.74 BB in it, and the villain shoves 22.62 BB. We need to call 17.62 BB to win 54.98 BB - we're getting 3 to 1 odds. Since this is a bounty builder (we're assuming it's a PKO with a bounty of $2.50), we would need to confirm the starting stack to know how this impact uss. Given the info we have, we will assume starting stack is 25k, meaning we can add 12,500 to the pot odds, or 25 BB, making this a 17.62 BB call to win 79.98 BB - or 4.5 to 1. (Note: You are NOT expected to know all this math on a whim when playing - what matters is recognizing the situation to make the right decision.)
So let's turn to the villain now. We are given these stats: VPIP 20 PFR 5 Cold Call 11 Limp 11 on 20 hands. This is what their range might look like:
We really shouldn't use the data to assume ths is the range because we don't have enough data to reliably say their VPIP is 20% - but we don't have anything else to go on right now so it's a start.
Looking at the range, the only hands that we are behind are going to be:
Now, do we have any sort of read on how they have bet before this? Will they bet the jack hard? Are they one to discourage others from continuing to save them from hitting their draw? A read here would be essential to know if we should give more credit to any of the three types of hands they have - including a stone cold bluff. Without that, we have one final piece to look at: SPR.
We've reviewed SPR before so if you forget, here's a quick refresher: SPR stands for Stack to Pot Ratio; it's an indication of how pot committed a player is.
In this hand:
Villain has 11,310 back when they shoved into a 7369 (4880+2489) pot, making their SPR 1.5. Calling would have dropped their SPR to below 1 - they would not have been able to do much to discourage you calling if they flatted on the flop, giving MORE reason for them to fold or shove here.
Outcome
At the end of the day, given our pot odds of 4.5 to 1, our potential equity against their entire range in or around 69% - exactness isn't needed here, but more of a ballpark number - and the fact that they would have been in a tough position post flop to continue betting, I don't believe they have a Jack - it would have been real lucky for them to have one given what they could have, and with their bounty in play, for me, this feels like a call as I think they have a draw more than a jack.
Now I've opened up the hero's spoilers to see additional info. the hero is correct in that there is a higher possibility that someone has a jack given three called pre-flop. Not a certainty though. Now seeing the second spoiler the play makes sense except the hand they showed up with - Six-Four of Hearts - is way outside of a 20 VPIP range - this is more like a 38% VPIP range looking at a hand range chart.
Takeaways
Given the callers in front you should expand their range but this is a good note to make - they are not afraid to widen their range considerably to play small suited gapers out of position when multiple callers are in front of them. The other point would be to consider upping your pre-flop raise amount when UTG or UTG+1 - doing that consistently still hides the strength, but might discourage one caller from entering the hand.
Tournament Hand #3: Freeroll Fun - Are We Raising On The Turn?
Our final hand comes from a freeroll on 888. Hero starts the hand with 34,422 (17.2BB):
Pre-Flop
UTG+1 limps, hero limps; CO limps and the big blind checks. We have no intel on any players but hero has a significantly larger stack than all opponents.
Flop
We get UTG+1 to min bet, we call and the CO calls before the big blind folds.
Turn
UTG+1 bets 2BB; we shove and get called by the CO before UTG+1 folds.
We note right out of the game that the CO has only 4.6 big blinds going to the turn, and the 2 BB bet and raise by the hero is effectively giving them odds to call with any piece of this board, and that we expect them to have given they called the min bet on the flop. The shame here for hero is that the UTG+1 player folds and we potentially lose out on value here.
Let's play this differently: If we had simply called the 4k turn bet, does the CO shove? They would get 3.6 to 1 on a shove by us calling here - it's hard to imagine a situation where they fold if we call, and, given their SPR, hard to think they would call as well going to the river. Regardless - even if they did shove, UTG+1 has the odds to keep going and may not view the aggression from the CO as a deterent - which would THEN give us the timing to shove with another 9k in the middle and more than likely getting the UTG+1 to call being more pot committed.
Now, let's go back to the flop - given the stacks in play, do we raise on the flop or continue to play passively, laying the trap? With so many limpers, we are risking too much by not raising on the flop: we want hands that have a piece to continue, but want to try and charge more to hands like JT to hit their draw. I understand why we call, but I am an advocate for winning a smaller pot than losing a big one, and asking for multiple hands to continue is a recipe for disaster on later streets.
Outcome
We don't have the end of the hand to know if we were good so we'll assume the three's held and we knock out a player, one step closer to the money!
Takeaways
Be mindful of playing multi-way hands post flop with made hands. Bottom set looks awesome, but against so many hands and multiple paint cards, someone has a draw that we really don't want them to hit. We need to note the CO that they played even more passively with a short stack - I suspect they would be an easy target to steal blinds in a freeroll especially if they are willing to limp with so little behind.
Hope you enjoyed our 5 part series on studying poker and that you took something away from it to help you improve your game! Coming up this weekend, we have a brand new nine part series on Seven Card Stud and Razz!! Make sure to subscribe to our CardsChat Learning Poker Thread Series Index, and turn your notifications on.
Check out all parts of the Studying Poker Series:
Tournament Hand #1: 37BB call in a $33 MTT - Is Folding a Mistake?
We start with a $33 MTT where we find a very nice Ace-Queen suited in spades and 36.65BB.
Pre-flop
Hero sees action opened to them and raise just over 2 BB only to see Villain on the button three-bet shove 37.1BB. We're now faced with a decision whether or not we should call off our tournament life.
Without any additional analytics on our villain, let's assume that they are playing a fairly standard 9% PFR - putting their range in this category:
For this analysis, we're going to list the number of hands for our opponent to get a better idea of our options.
- We are ahead of AJs (3), ATs (3), A9s (3), and A8s (1 - our range only says A8s in there 33% of the time), AJo (12), and KJs (16) for a total of 38 hands (Roughly 68% equity)
- We are tied with AQs (3) and AQo (6) for a total of 9 hands (Roughly 50% equity)
- We are behind but essentially flipping with JJ (4), TT (4), 99 (4), 88 (4), 77 (4), and 66 (4) for a total of 24 hands (Roughly 50% equity)
- We are WAY behind AA (3), KK (4), QQ (3), and AK (16) for a total of 26 hands (Roughly 32% equity)
We don't know at what stage the tournament is at, which is unfortunate because that really matters and should affect your decision making. Here's why:
- Early in a MTT: This is a fold IMO - refer back to our learning series on managing your stack in a MTT --> Managing Your Stack In a MTT Part 2: Early Stages in Freezeout Tournaments
- Approaching the Bubble: This feels like even more of a fold to me, but if we are in the money, depending on the laddering (there are 2 shorter stacks at our table) you might be able to make an argument for a call.
- Bounty or PKO: This could be a call because we know the villain could be shoving wider hoping to collect bounties, widening their range and increasing our expected outcome with more marginal hands in play.
- Re-buy Tournament: If this was a re-buy tournament, are we looking to take chances to double-up and fire another bullet? If yes, this could very well be a call.
The hero folds which seems to make sense but we absolutely need to note what villain did here, three-bet shoving 37BB like they did. If we pick up a monster, we want to be able to give the villain a chance to do this again, and call off with a much more powerful hand.
Takeaways
When we dissect a tournament a tournament hand, the type and stage of the tournament matter. The hero indicated in their post that they would easily call if the raise was 20BB - but if we are willing to call off more than half of our stack pre-flop, but not the entire stack, what are we missing to understand that?
Tournament Hand #2: Early Levels of Bounty MTT - Are We Calling For an Early KO?
Let's go to the early stages of a bounty tournament now to see when pocket aces are vulnerable:
Pre-Flop
Hero starts with 59BB and the big blind - our villain - has 25BB. Hero finds pocket aces and raises to 2.2BB, to which he gets called by the cut-off, the small blind and the big blind. Not the ideal scenerio for aces being against three hands but what else can you do?
The Flop
The pot sits at 9.76BB when we see action checked to us, and make a c-bet of essentially 5BB which pushes out the CO and the SB. The big blind however, shoves their remaining stack. Do we call?
There's a lot to consider here - so let's start with the math part. After our c-bet the pot has 14.74 BB in it, and the villain shoves 22.62 BB. We need to call 17.62 BB to win 54.98 BB - we're getting 3 to 1 odds. Since this is a bounty builder (we're assuming it's a PKO with a bounty of $2.50), we would need to confirm the starting stack to know how this impact uss. Given the info we have, we will assume starting stack is 25k, meaning we can add 12,500 to the pot odds, or 25 BB, making this a 17.62 BB call to win 79.98 BB - or 4.5 to 1. (Note: You are NOT expected to know all this math on a whim when playing - what matters is recognizing the situation to make the right decision.)
So let's turn to the villain now. We are given these stats: VPIP 20 PFR 5 Cold Call 11 Limp 11 on 20 hands. This is what their range might look like:
We really shouldn't use the data to assume ths is the range because we don't have enough data to reliably say their VPIP is 20% - but we don't have anything else to go on right now so it's a start.
Looking at the range, the only hands that we are behind are going to be:
- Full House - QQ (6 combos) and QJ (6 combos) --> 12 hands with approx. 9% equity
- Trips - AJ (4 combos), KJ (8 combos), and JTs (4 combos) --> 16 hands with approx. 9% equity
- In total - 28 hands w/ 9% equity
- Flush Draw - AK, AT, A9, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, A2, KT, K9, K8 - 13 hands with approx. 67% equity
- Straight Draw - AKo (6 combos), KTo (15 combos) -- 21 hands with approx. 85% equity
- In total - 34 hands with approx. 79% equity
- Two Pairs, Jacks + Pair - All pairs except AA, QQ, and JJ - 40 combos with approx. 90% equity
- Two pairs, Queens + Jacks - AQ (6 combos) KQ (12 hands), QTs (3 hands), Q9s (3 hands) - 24 hands with approx. 90% equity
- In total, 64 hands with approx. 90% equity
Now, do we have any sort of read on how they have bet before this? Will they bet the jack hard? Are they one to discourage others from continuing to save them from hitting their draw? A read here would be essential to know if we should give more credit to any of the three types of hands they have - including a stone cold bluff. Without that, we have one final piece to look at: SPR.
We've reviewed SPR before so if you forget, here's a quick refresher: SPR stands for Stack to Pot Ratio; it's an indication of how pot committed a player is.
In this hand:
Villain has 11,310 back when they shoved into a 7369 (4880+2489) pot, making their SPR 1.5. Calling would have dropped their SPR to below 1 - they would not have been able to do much to discourage you calling if they flatted on the flop, giving MORE reason for them to fold or shove here.
Outcome
At the end of the day, given our pot odds of 4.5 to 1, our potential equity against their entire range in or around 69% - exactness isn't needed here, but more of a ballpark number - and the fact that they would have been in a tough position post flop to continue betting, I don't believe they have a Jack - it would have been real lucky for them to have one given what they could have, and with their bounty in play, for me, this feels like a call as I think they have a draw more than a jack.
Now I've opened up the hero's spoilers to see additional info. the hero is correct in that there is a higher possibility that someone has a jack given three called pre-flop. Not a certainty though. Now seeing the second spoiler the play makes sense except the hand they showed up with - Six-Four of Hearts - is way outside of a 20 VPIP range - this is more like a 38% VPIP range looking at a hand range chart.
Takeaways
Given the callers in front you should expand their range but this is a good note to make - they are not afraid to widen their range considerably to play small suited gapers out of position when multiple callers are in front of them. The other point would be to consider upping your pre-flop raise amount when UTG or UTG+1 - doing that consistently still hides the strength, but might discourage one caller from entering the hand.
Tournament Hand #3: Freeroll Fun - Are We Raising On The Turn?
Our final hand comes from a freeroll on 888. Hero starts the hand with 34,422 (17.2BB):
Pre-Flop
UTG+1 limps, hero limps; CO limps and the big blind checks. We have no intel on any players but hero has a significantly larger stack than all opponents.
Flop
We get UTG+1 to min bet, we call and the CO calls before the big blind folds.
Turn
UTG+1 bets 2BB; we shove and get called by the CO before UTG+1 folds.
We note right out of the game that the CO has only 4.6 big blinds going to the turn, and the 2 BB bet and raise by the hero is effectively giving them odds to call with any piece of this board, and that we expect them to have given they called the min bet on the flop. The shame here for hero is that the UTG+1 player folds and we potentially lose out on value here.
Let's play this differently: If we had simply called the 4k turn bet, does the CO shove? They would get 3.6 to 1 on a shove by us calling here - it's hard to imagine a situation where they fold if we call, and, given their SPR, hard to think they would call as well going to the river. Regardless - even if they did shove, UTG+1 has the odds to keep going and may not view the aggression from the CO as a deterent - which would THEN give us the timing to shove with another 9k in the middle and more than likely getting the UTG+1 to call being more pot committed.
Now, let's go back to the flop - given the stacks in play, do we raise on the flop or continue to play passively, laying the trap? With so many limpers, we are risking too much by not raising on the flop: we want hands that have a piece to continue, but want to try and charge more to hands like JT to hit their draw. I understand why we call, but I am an advocate for winning a smaller pot than losing a big one, and asking for multiple hands to continue is a recipe for disaster on later streets.
Outcome
We don't have the end of the hand to know if we were good so we'll assume the three's held and we knock out a player, one step closer to the money!
Takeaways
Be mindful of playing multi-way hands post flop with made hands. Bottom set looks awesome, but against so many hands and multiple paint cards, someone has a draw that we really don't want them to hit. We need to note the CO that they played even more passively with a short stack - I suspect they would be an easy target to steal blinds in a freeroll especially if they are willing to limp with so little behind.
Hope you enjoyed our 5 part series on studying poker and that you took something away from it to help you improve your game! Coming up this weekend, we have a brand new nine part series on Seven Card Stud and Razz!! Make sure to subscribe to our CardsChat Learning Poker Thread Series Index, and turn your notifications on.
Check out all parts of the Studying Poker Series:
- CardsChat Learning Series - Studying Poker, Part 1: Studying Off the Felt
- CardsChat Learning Series - Studying Poker, Part 2: Studying On the Felt
- CardsChat Learning Series - Studying Poker, Part 3: Poker Tools
- CardsChat Learning Series - Studying Poker, Part 4a: Cash Hand Review
