Odds for FD or OESD

[Beanfacekilla]

I was in the cardroom and a fellow poker player started talking about odds to hit a FD. I think he is wrong, but it got me thinking....

Here is how I calculate odds:

If I flop a FD, I have 9 outs. 47 cards left in deck. So 9 goes into 47 about 5 times. Giving roughly 1 in 5 (or around 20%) to hit my draw seeing only one more card. The reason I calculate for only seeing 1 more card is because if I miss on the turn, I will have to decide again if I want to call a bet to see the river. And I recalculate the same way on turn if I miss, and I am faced with another decision to call a bet on turn.

This guy at the casino says something like:

Multiply your outs x 2 for every card left to come. So he says if you flop a FD, you have 9 outs x 2 for turn, and 2 for river. According to him, a FD has a 36% chance of hitting.

I told him that is incorrect unless you are guaranteed to see both turn and river, you will be faced with another bet on turn if you miss your draw. Then, you will have to pay to see another card. Regardless, I think 36% is too high. I don't think the odds are that good to hit a FD.

The reason I ask this is because many card players use the system of multiplying your outs x 2 for every street to come. So 9 outs times 2 twice for flopped FD.

I think 36% is not the correct number for making a FD if you flop it.

Am I right, or is he right?

I never want to assume I will see both turn and river unless I am all in, and guaranteed to see both regardless.

Someone please explain this to me. I think my current way of calculating odds is just fine.

 

[steveiam]

You are right its only 38% if you plan to see turn & river. otherwise its about 19% for each card.

 

[micromachine]

The 2 and 4 rule is the easiest way imo: multiply number of outs by 2 to work out your chance of hitting on the next street and multiply number of outs by 4 to work out chances of hitting by the river.

For a flopped FD there is and 18% chance of hitting on the turn, and a 36% chance of hitting by the river.

You are right in thinking you should be using 18% to decide whether to call a flop bet because you might miss and your opponent might make a turn bet you cant call. But then again implied odds come into it too, if you think your opponent will stack off even if a possible flush turns then you might decide to chase your flush even if the odds are not great.

 

[nidal55]

But youre both saying the same thing! You multiply your outs by2 per street. So.. for the next street is 18%. Correct thinking about paying again to draw for the new 18%. The thing is we never fold on the flop even if we dont have direct pot odds cause opponents tend to pay a little sthng when we hit so we cover those losses on a later street. Also sometimes our opponent checks the turn to have this for free. Money invested so far doesnt count,every street contains a separate math decision, money invested is not ours anymore.

 

[Beanfacekilla]

OK thanks for the replies.

Most players will never lay down a FD, because of that 36% chance. Even if they miss the turn, they still call another bet. It just seems that no one will EVER lay down the FD against me, no matter what the cost. If I just jam the flop, many players will call. I think it is foolish the way people always chase that FD.

But is it really 36% to hit seeing both cards? I didn't think it was that high... Makes sense I guess.

It doesn't seem like 36% when I miss my FD. I think many players overvalue FDs, and will even call with incorrect odds with things like 8 or 9 high FDs.

Anyways, thanks again to all for the replies.

 

[micromachine]

Being aggressive with FDs when you have fold equity is one thing, but calling flop shoves with them is bad and a mistake lots of beginners and gamblers will make.

Sometimes I'll call if I have a good FD + a pair, or a good FD + an inside SD, or even with the nut FD when the odds are decent as your A often gives you extra outs. But calling flop shoves with 9 high FD is terribad

 

[steveiam]

OK thanks for the replies.

Most players will never lay down a FD, because of that 36% chance. Even if they miss the turn, they still call another bet. It just seems that no one will EVER lay down the FD against me, no matter what the cost. If I just jam the flop, many players will call. I think it is foolish the way people always chase that FD.

But is it really 36% to hit seeing both cards? I didn't think it was that high... Makes sense I guess.

It doesn't seem like 36% when I miss my FD. I think many players overvalue FDs, and will even call with incorrect odds with things like 8 or 9 high FDs.

Anyways, thanks again to all for the replies.

Phil Helmuth lost a wsop bracelet once when he had 3 FD in a row and missed all 3. But it was still the right decision to call all three.

 

[Beanfacekilla]

Being aggressive with FDs when you have fold equity is one thing, but calling flop shoves with them is bad and a mistake lots of beginners and gamblers will make.

Sometimes I'll call if I have a good FD + a pair, or a good FD + an inside SD, or even with the nut FD when the odds are decent as your A often gives you extra outs. But calling flop shoves with 9 high FD is terribad

I play live, as you may know. People are soooooooooooooo bad at the live tables. That will call with one of their suit on board hoping to go runner-runner 6 high flush (sometimes, but more frequently than you would think).

They have money to burn, and do most times. But they also suck out in horrible fashion as well.

 

[steveiam]

I play live, as you may know. People are soooooooooooooo bad at the live tables. That will call with one of their suit on board hoping to go runner-runner 6 high flush (sometimes, but more frequently than you would think).

They have money to burn, and do most times. But they also suck out in horrible fashion as well.

All you can do is get it in good and hope..lol

 

[Beanfacekilla]

All you can do is get it in good and hope..lol

A bit of a derail, but it is my thread I guess.

Yesterday, I had A-Q off. 1/2 table. Raise 7 pre on button.

A few calls. Flop comes Q-5-2 Rainbow I think. I think I bet 17 or 20. 1 call from ultra loose big stack in BB. I had about 250-300 entering hand.

Turn comes a 4 of clubs I think. Two clubs on board now. Big stack checks again. I bet 27-35 I think. Call.

River 3 of clubs. I now have a straight. 3 clubs on board. 3-4-5 of clubs on board. Donk bets 50. I tank for a minute, and call. I thought he may have had an ace, and we are chopping. He rolls over a 2-6 clubs for a straight flush.

Donkey goes from bottom pair, one club in board, to runner-runner straight flush. I was disgusted.

It was extremely tough for me to put him in a hand. He was just playing super loose and sucking people out all day. I think most people would make this call if they were me. Over 100 in the pot. Just a horrible cooler.


That is one example of running really bad. I couldn't believe what he called with pre, flop, and turn.

This is a pretty bad play by villain, right?

Edit: I would not have called if I didn't make a straight on river.

 

[micromachine]

Yeah it's terrible but it will be him that loses money in the long run

 

[steveiam]

A bit of a derail, but it is my thread I guess.

Yesterday, I had A-Q off. 1/2 table. Raise 7 pre on button.

A few calls. Flop comes Q-5-2 Rainbow I think. I think I bet 17 or 20. 1 call from ultra loose big stack in BB. I had about 250-300 entering hand.

Turn comes a 4 of clubs I think. Two clubs on board now. Big stack checks again. I bet 27-35 I think. Call.

River 3 of clubs. I now have a straight. 3 clubs on board. 3-4-5 of clubs on board. Donk bets 50. I tank for a minute, and call. I thought he may have had an ace, and we are chopping. He rolls over a 2-6 clubs for a straight flush.

Donkey goes from bottom pair, one club in board, to runner-runner straight flush. I was disgusted.

It was extremely tough for me to put him in a hand. He was just playing super loose and sucking people out all day. I think most people would make this call if they were me. Over 100 in the pot. Just a horrible cooler.


That is one example of running really bad. I couldn't believe what he called with pre, flop, and turn.

This is a pretty bad play by villain, right?

Edit: I would not have called if I didn't make a straight on river.

It was proberly his lucky hand because a couple of years ago he won a big pot with it.

 

[nidal55]

Its not always about direct pot odds. Sometimes a pair on a dry board can be deceiving if the bet is not too high with 5 outs to come. Then the flush draw increases implied odds dramatically and if your opponent has a decent stack u can go for it. Those donkies sometimes have a ''feel'' for implied and are not such bad players. Math become useful when ur opponent has the ability to fold. If they hit and got nothing they would start thinking about it in a different way..(some of them)