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Be sure to catch up on Lesson #1 and Lesson #2 where we cover successfully managing your stack through the re-buy period and the middle levels of a tournaments. The work however only gets more difficult as the money begins to come into sight. You're not quite there yet and you have a lot of work to do to cash, but how do you manage your way to a profit? There are things you should be thinking of, and things you shouldn't -- so let's get you through the money bubble and on to the final table!!
Playing to win, or playing to cash?
At this point, one of the most important things to take into account - along with everything else we've gone through - is to realize who is playing to win and who is playing to cash. Those playing to win are going to be getting uber-aggressive going after blinds, while those just looking to squeak into the money and bust are going to be playing such a small range of hands that they will probably fold QQ and maybe even KK.
What you need to realize now is how this impacts your play and what your goal is. Are you playing for the win, regardless if you actually cash or not, or are you happy to make the money and then whatever happens after is gravy?
Putting it into context
You are back in that 100 player tournament we set-up in lesson #2. Let's set the scene:
What should you recognize immediately?
You are essentially caught between a rock and a hard place in terms of determining the most optimal approach.
On the one hand:
There really is no wrong answer here. The best course of action might be to play selectively and target players who are closest to you when they are in the blinds. This way you can try and pick up blinds once an orbit and to avoid pots with the overly aggressive players. You could also make an argument for being really aggressive, really passive, or in the middle but this will depend on your playing style and any other info you pick up at your table.
We mentioned above that you are not in a position to coast to a cash yet so let's explore what we are referring to there. As a general rule, when you approach the money in a tournament, you can figure out if you are in a great position to cash by utilizing this simple formula:
We are sitting in 11th place out of 25 remaining players, with 15 cashing. There are 10 players left to bust to the bubble, but only 4 between us and that bubble spot (15th place), giving us a result of +6. The bigger the positive number, the less likely we are to cash at this moment.
Now, if there were 18 players left, and we were still 11th, now our calculation yields an answer of -1, meaning that we are very likely to cash if we did nothing except fold from this point. Many players looking to just cash will not realize that they are too far from the money to be passive, and likely end up busting short because they didn't recognize where they were in a tournament. Being aware of this will help you target players who aren't paying attention.
Reverse the Scenario
But now let's say in our example that the big stacks decide they want the blinds and start to pressure the table hand after hand. What do you need to do to compensate for this?
One key indicator that comes into play more in this stage of the tournament is a concept many poker pros use: stack to pot ratio, or SPR. This is a signal to an opponent to tell them the likelihood of getting called because a player is committed to a hand.
Let's again go back to level 10 where blinds are 2000 and 4000. We are in the big blind. One of the shorter stacks with an initial stack of 12 BB has raised 2BB. We still have 22 big blinds, although one of them is in the middle, and the pot right now is 14000 chips.
Our opponent's SPR right now is: 11 BB (44,000 chips) divided by the pot of 14,000 chips = 3.14
But on the flop let's say they lead out for 8,000. Their SPR drops to 1.63 (36,000 stack, 22,000 pot). Whenever a player's SPR gets close to 1, it severely limits their ability to do anything except shove: either they don't have enough behind to bet enough to make the pot odds bad for their opponent, or the sizing of their bet relative to the pot leaves so little behind that they essentially commit themselves.
So if we call, we aren't playing for the pot now, but their stack as well; because with our call their SPR becomes (36,000 stack, 30,000 pot) 1.2. This should be part of your thought process as you will most likely be calling for their stack, not just the 8,000 on the flop. The implied odds here are almost not implied - it may be a given that the balance of their stack is going in.
Conversely, if you are in the situation of the short stack, this is why many advocate for just shoving pre-flop and getting it in. You will want to avoid giving your opponent chances to make marginal calls because the odds are good to go after your stack, and for you to avoid murky betting situations like this late in a tournament. You are far better off shoving for your tournament life, than calling it off.
Moving Forward
Let's speed our tournament ahead now. We have made it to the final 18 players, and there are two tables of 9 remaining in your tournament. The chip division is fairly even, with only a small difference in the number of chips at each table, although your table has slightly more chips in play than the other table. Let's break this down further:
Let's look at some of the stats:
Right out of the gate with your new table draw you should recognize spots that you can chip up and go after the blinds, but given you are 7th in chips at your table, other players are going to recognize this as well. So it's important to focus on a couple of things at least until you are through the money bubble.
The Other Table
The other thing to notice right away is the other table. Both tables have 9 players, and your table has slightly more chips than the other - but - you are 7th on your table and 12th overall. That means that there are 4 players on the other table that are below 20BB and potentially targets to bust. If you are playing online you need to get the other table opened up and keep tabs on them. If you are playing live, hopefully the tables are next to each other and you'll be able to hear commentary from the players and dealer as to what's happening. It is important to keep tabs on the other table, because at this point, every elimination matters. In addition, you'll also want to know if tables will need to be balanced if the other table has two eliminations, which is possible given the stacks.
Watch those blinds!
Finally you'll want to check on the blind jumps on the next level or two. If the money bubble is going to burst, and you suspect it will be a slower bubble, check how big the next blind jump will be. Keep this in mind as the level nears completion because how your stack in terms of BB's will shrink matters to how much play and room for error you'll have. Players may react and decide to shove because the blinds are about to hit, costing them more of their stack on the next hand.
Fast Forward
Ok, so let's fast forward again to after the money bubble hits.
Gather Intel
First order of business is to quickly identify the short stacks who are going to punt off and go for all or nothing. They could become the easiest way to quickly build a stack. By open-shoving ahead of them you're going to do one of several things:
It's important to set a goal of winning a hand an orbit at this point to ensure your stack is maintained, but it's even more important at this juncture because of how important chips are at this point. ICM (Independent Chip Model) could demonstrate this but that topic is far too detailed and advanced for what we are covering here. But if you are ready to dig in, check out Day 14 of our 30 Day Poker Course– What Is ICM?
Determine your stack needs
Another thing to consider at this point of the tournament is, what will and average stack look like at the final table, what does your stack need to be to reach at least average, and what are the blind increases looking like now. Luckily the first part of this statement is a very easy calculation:
Pay attention
The second part above references back to lesson #1 where we emphasized the importance of why knowing the structure is so important to build a plan for the entire tournament. At this stage of the tournament, the blinds tend to escalate much more quickly than they did in the earlier phases, and those increases will take average stacks and make them short very quick.
Knowing this, and how big the blind jumps will be can help you attack players who aren't paying attention. For example: if the blinds are 6k right now, and they are about to jump to 4/8k, a short stack UTG who is paying attention may shove wider knowing that they are on the hook for 8k on the next hand, not 6k. Conversely, you can try and exploit those that are not paying attention to structure by playing faster or slower depending on where the short stack is. If the short stack is UTG and folds, play slower to ensure the blind increase hits them. If you are UTG and the blind increase is coming, play faster and try to avoid the increase. Small changes like this could save you chips - and at this stage, every chip matters!
After the bubble bursts, we need to be proactive, going after players who are either playing too tight and hoping to ladder, or going after players who have opened up their range (either those looking to chip up, or going for broke) and being selective with our hands to increase our stack. Again, we want to target winning at least a hand an orbit to maintain our current position, and bonus if we can take down pots without going to showdown and putting ourselves at risk.
Playing with the Short Stack
But what if our stack wasn't 150k but instead 60k and we have 10BB...we survived the bubble but what do we do with 10BB? The answer? Lots!!!
In a lot of poker tournaments, shorter stacks who were playing to cash are now not going to necessarily care to stay in the tournament and shove to bust. Finding hands to call these players with could equate to a big boost, but the most likely source of chips for short stacks are going to come from the mid-stacks: those like the player we have been following along in this lesson. Those that are not short, but can't really afford to double up a 10 to 13BB stack, putting themselves in a precarious position. Shoving into these players - especially from later position - may prove to be your most reliable source of chips without going to showdown.
The final source could be stacks who are sitting back, content to let the shorter ones get killed off and ladder up for the time being. Some players don't like getting involved in the craziness that can ensue right after the bubble bursts and will sit back and let the dust settle. Should you recognize a player doing that, shove on them when they are in the blinds and pick up those valuable chips!!!
On the Final Table
Finally you reach the final table! Nine players are left and you are sitting in 6th with 25BB. The goal is now is sight - so how do you build a stack to get there?
Just as in other stages, there really is no easy way to get there and no one way to approach. But you will find the things you must consider will sound very family, even at the final table:
We hope you enjoyed this series on managing your stack through a MTT. Feel free to continue the discussion with questions and comments below!
Be sure to keep up on all the latest in our thread learning series! We keep a catalog of all series here: CardsChat Learning Poker Thread Series Index
And bookmark our catalog of poker strategy and learning tools: CardsChat Poker Learning Hub: A Complete Guide
Playing to win, or playing to cash?
At this point, one of the most important things to take into account - along with everything else we've gone through - is to realize who is playing to win and who is playing to cash. Those playing to win are going to be getting uber-aggressive going after blinds, while those just looking to squeak into the money and bust are going to be playing such a small range of hands that they will probably fold QQ and maybe even KK.
What you need to realize now is how this impacts your play and what your goal is. Are you playing for the win, regardless if you actually cash or not, or are you happy to make the money and then whatever happens after is gravy?
Putting it into context
You are back in that 100 player tournament we set-up in lesson #2. Let's set the scene:
- Starting Stack: 20,000
- 15 spots paid
- 25 players left at Level 10 (blinds 2000/4000)
- Your stack: 88,000 (22 BB), currently 11th place
- 3-tables left: 1 nine-handed table (yours), 2 eight-handed tables
- 9-handed (as described above)
- You hold 22BB
- Two stacks above 40BB
- Three stacks to your left have between 10-16BB
- Three remaining stacks are ~20-25BB (like you)
What should you recognize immediately?
- First: We are above the 80,000 average stack, but this only represents 20BB, which means that over half of the field is considered short stack.
- Second: It looks like there are more than the average number of chips at your table, meaning you will most likely see more eliminations at the other tables; most likely until there are two tables of 18 players left.
- Third: The blinds available to attack at your table appear to be the two big stacks as they seem content to play for the money right now, while the short stacks are being aggressive in an attempt to double-up.
- Fourth: With a stack of 22BB (barely above average), you are not in a position to be passive to make the money with 10 people still to drop.
You are essentially caught between a rock and a hard place in terms of determining the most optimal approach.
On the one hand:
- You are around average stack for the tournament, but are at risk of becoming short on the next blind level
- There are still 10 eliminations needed to make the money and you would be at risk of busting if you sat back
- The small stacks at your table are being aggressive, meaning if they double up, you will be in a less favorable position at your table
- If tables merge and you don't build chips up, you will end up being short when the money bubble comes into play
- Your table has more chips on average than the other two tables, putting you in a better position then the other 16 players
- The number of short stacks at other tables is higher, meaning more eliminations until the table dynamics change
- The bigger stacks right now are not being bullies, opening up the opportunity for you to target players who are being passive and steal blinds
There really is no wrong answer here. The best course of action might be to play selectively and target players who are closest to you when they are in the blinds. This way you can try and pick up blinds once an orbit and to avoid pots with the overly aggressive players. You could also make an argument for being really aggressive, really passive, or in the middle but this will depend on your playing style and any other info you pick up at your table.
We mentioned above that you are not in a position to coast to a cash yet so let's explore what we are referring to there. As a general rule, when you approach the money in a tournament, you can figure out if you are in a great position to cash by utilizing this simple formula:
- Look at the number of eliminations left to burst the money bubble
- Subtract the number of players between you and the money bubble.
- Any number that is negative means that you are in a very comfortable spot & are likely to cash, if you avoid disaster.
We are sitting in 11th place out of 25 remaining players, with 15 cashing. There are 10 players left to bust to the bubble, but only 4 between us and that bubble spot (15th place), giving us a result of +6. The bigger the positive number, the less likely we are to cash at this moment.
Now, if there were 18 players left, and we were still 11th, now our calculation yields an answer of -1, meaning that we are very likely to cash if we did nothing except fold from this point. Many players looking to just cash will not realize that they are too far from the money to be passive, and likely end up busting short because they didn't recognize where they were in a tournament. Being aware of this will help you target players who aren't paying attention.
Reverse the Scenario
But now let's say in our example that the big stacks decide they want the blinds and start to pressure the table hand after hand. What do you need to do to compensate for this?
- First: Figure out which players at your table you can still target with little risk to your stack. This means, who is going to be in the blinds when the bully - or bullies - are in front of you to act?
- Second: When it comes to hands with the bullies potentially involved, change your range of hands you are willing to play and play them aggressively; don't allow yourself to be outplayed on the flop. If they are going to go after the blinds with a wider range, make them pay!
- Third: When it comes to defending your blinds, who is attacking you? Is it different players or the same orbit after orbit? And are they going after other player's blinds? If the answer is yes, expand your 3-bet range and be prepared to get all of your chips in because more than likely, they are doing it with sub-par hand. Punishing their loose play could benefit you greatly by picking up more than the blinds without going to showdown.
One key indicator that comes into play more in this stage of the tournament is a concept many poker pros use: stack to pot ratio, or SPR. This is a signal to an opponent to tell them the likelihood of getting called because a player is committed to a hand.
Let's again go back to level 10 where blinds are 2000 and 4000. We are in the big blind. One of the shorter stacks with an initial stack of 12 BB has raised 2BB. We still have 22 big blinds, although one of them is in the middle, and the pot right now is 14000 chips.
Our opponent's SPR right now is: 11 BB (44,000 chips) divided by the pot of 14,000 chips = 3.14
But on the flop let's say they lead out for 8,000. Their SPR drops to 1.63 (36,000 stack, 22,000 pot). Whenever a player's SPR gets close to 1, it severely limits their ability to do anything except shove: either they don't have enough behind to bet enough to make the pot odds bad for their opponent, or the sizing of their bet relative to the pot leaves so little behind that they essentially commit themselves.
So if we call, we aren't playing for the pot now, but their stack as well; because with our call their SPR becomes (36,000 stack, 30,000 pot) 1.2. This should be part of your thought process as you will most likely be calling for their stack, not just the 8,000 on the flop. The implied odds here are almost not implied - it may be a given that the balance of their stack is going in.
Conversely, if you are in the situation of the short stack, this is why many advocate for just shoving pre-flop and getting it in. You will want to avoid giving your opponent chances to make marginal calls because the odds are good to go after your stack, and for you to avoid murky betting situations like this late in a tournament. You are far better off shoving for your tournament life, than calling it off.
Moving Forward
Let's speed our tournament ahead now. We have made it to the final 18 players, and there are two tables of 9 remaining in your tournament. The chip division is fairly even, with only a small difference in the number of chips at each table, although your table has slightly more chips in play than the other table. Let's break this down further:
- You have slipped to 12th place overall with 20BB
- We are at Level 11 where blinds are 3000 and 6000
- Of the 9 players at your table, 2 players have a smaller stack then you (Seat 2, 14BB, Seat 5, 9BB)
- Everyone else has at least 24BB with the table chip leader in seat 8 with 55 BB
- You are in seat 9.
Let's look at some of the stats:
- First off, your chance of cashing is 0, meaning you are close to being in a comfortable spot, but are not quite there yet.
- Your table draw is great, having a short stack in the big blind when you are on the button and the table chip leader to your right.
- You are 7th in chips at your table and will most likely be targeted by aggressive big stacks
- The chip leader will have you in the blinds when they have the button.
- Eliminations are going to be a premium, but, there's a chance the other table will knock out more players.
Right out of the gate with your new table draw you should recognize spots that you can chip up and go after the blinds, but given you are 7th in chips at your table, other players are going to recognize this as well. So it's important to focus on a couple of things at least until you are through the money bubble.
The Other Table
The other thing to notice right away is the other table. Both tables have 9 players, and your table has slightly more chips than the other - but - you are 7th on your table and 12th overall. That means that there are 4 players on the other table that are below 20BB and potentially targets to bust. If you are playing online you need to get the other table opened up and keep tabs on them. If you are playing live, hopefully the tables are next to each other and you'll be able to hear commentary from the players and dealer as to what's happening. It is important to keep tabs on the other table, because at this point, every elimination matters. In addition, you'll also want to know if tables will need to be balanced if the other table has two eliminations, which is possible given the stacks.
Watch those blinds!
Finally you'll want to check on the blind jumps on the next level or two. If the money bubble is going to burst, and you suspect it will be a slower bubble, check how big the next blind jump will be. Keep this in mind as the level nears completion because how your stack in terms of BB's will shrink matters to how much play and room for error you'll have. Players may react and decide to shove because the blinds are about to hit, costing them more of their stack on the next hand.
Fast Forward
Ok, so let's fast forward again to after the money bubble hits.
- 15 players remain
- You are sitting in 11th with a stack of 25BB (150k in chips)
Gather Intel
First order of business is to quickly identify the short stacks who are going to punt off and go for all or nothing. They could become the easiest way to quickly build a stack. By open-shoving ahead of them you're going to do one of several things:
- Isolate the short stacks from the chip leaders and discourage them from calling - unless they wake-up to a monster
- Give yourself a chance to win a hand in your orbit without going to showdown
- Potentially knock one of them out
It's important to set a goal of winning a hand an orbit at this point to ensure your stack is maintained, but it's even more important at this juncture because of how important chips are at this point. ICM (Independent Chip Model) could demonstrate this but that topic is far too detailed and advanced for what we are covering here. But if you are ready to dig in, check out Day 14 of our 30 Day Poker Course– What Is ICM?
Determine your stack needs
Another thing to consider at this point of the tournament is, what will and average stack look like at the final table, what does your stack need to be to reach at least average, and what are the blind increases looking like now. Luckily the first part of this statement is a very easy calculation:
- We know there are 100 players x 20,000 initial chip stack, for 2 million chips in play.
- Divided by 9 (the number of players at the final table), this yields an average stack of 222,222 chips per player at the final table.
Pay attention
The second part above references back to lesson #1 where we emphasized the importance of why knowing the structure is so important to build a plan for the entire tournament. At this stage of the tournament, the blinds tend to escalate much more quickly than they did in the earlier phases, and those increases will take average stacks and make them short very quick.
Knowing this, and how big the blind jumps will be can help you attack players who aren't paying attention. For example: if the blinds are 6k right now, and they are about to jump to 4/8k, a short stack UTG who is paying attention may shove wider knowing that they are on the hook for 8k on the next hand, not 6k. Conversely, you can try and exploit those that are not paying attention to structure by playing faster or slower depending on where the short stack is. If the short stack is UTG and folds, play slower to ensure the blind increase hits them. If you are UTG and the blind increase is coming, play faster and try to avoid the increase. Small changes like this could save you chips - and at this stage, every chip matters!
After the bubble bursts, we need to be proactive, going after players who are either playing too tight and hoping to ladder, or going after players who have opened up their range (either those looking to chip up, or going for broke) and being selective with our hands to increase our stack. Again, we want to target winning at least a hand an orbit to maintain our current position, and bonus if we can take down pots without going to showdown and putting ourselves at risk.
Playing with the Short Stack
But what if our stack wasn't 150k but instead 60k and we have 10BB...we survived the bubble but what do we do with 10BB? The answer? Lots!!!
In a lot of poker tournaments, shorter stacks who were playing to cash are now not going to necessarily care to stay in the tournament and shove to bust. Finding hands to call these players with could equate to a big boost, but the most likely source of chips for short stacks are going to come from the mid-stacks: those like the player we have been following along in this lesson. Those that are not short, but can't really afford to double up a 10 to 13BB stack, putting themselves in a precarious position. Shoving into these players - especially from later position - may prove to be your most reliable source of chips without going to showdown.
The final source could be stacks who are sitting back, content to let the shorter ones get killed off and ladder up for the time being. Some players don't like getting involved in the craziness that can ensue right after the bubble bursts and will sit back and let the dust settle. Should you recognize a player doing that, shove on them when they are in the blinds and pick up those valuable chips!!!
On the Final Table
Finally you reach the final table! Nine players are left and you are sitting in 6th with 25BB. The goal is now is sight - so how do you build a stack to get there?
Just as in other stages, there really is no easy way to get there and no one way to approach. But you will find the things you must consider will sound very family, even at the final table:
- Where are the big stacks and where are the shorter stacks in relation to your button and when you are in the blinds.
- Hand selection now is even more critical - don't feel pressured to play marginal hands.
- Medium stacks are going to be the most consistent source of winning blinds - so if you are still trying to maintain your "one hand won per orbit", target hands when these stacks are in the blinds and look to apply max pressure.
- Be aware when the shortest stacks are at risk - don't leave money on the table by playing recklessly and letting them ladder up.
- Winning small pots or the blinds is way better than losing a massive pot or busting - don't get cute with your approach to a hand.
- Pace yourself - Know that the final table will be a grind so don't rush things because while you can't win the tournament on one hand, you can lose it.
- Pay attention: Be aware of the blind increases and see who it will affect.
We hope you enjoyed this series on managing your stack through a MTT. Feel free to continue the discussion with questions and comments below!
Be sure to keep up on all the latest in our thread learning series! We keep a catalog of all series here: CardsChat Learning Poker Thread Series Index
And bookmark our catalog of poker strategy and learning tools: CardsChat Poker Learning Hub: A Complete Guide
