The danger of playing bad draws

[fundiver199]

Recently I posted a thread with the title "when draws have showdown value" and illustrated the idea with an example, where I somewhat to my surprice won at showdown with K high. The point being, that when we count outs and calculate pot odds, we also need to take into account the chance, we might actually already beat some of the opponents bluffs.

Equally important however is the quality of our draw. In this hand my opponent flopped an OESD, so just counting outs we would say, he had 8 of them. However this is far from true, because a lot of my range also contain a Q. If I have KQ, QJ or QT, he is only drawing to a chop or for the slim chance of hitting running 3-3 to make trips. If I have AQ or Q9, his situation is even worse, because then I have a straight already, and he can only hope to chop the pot.

The next problem is, that if he makes his hand, there will be 4 cards to a straight, which makes it difficult to get paid by a worse hand. So he dont have great implied odds, and he even have some reverse implied odds, if a 9 comes, and I have AQ. So while I would probably check-call a small flop bet is his spot, this is not a situation, I would choose to attack in any way, and I would be very cautious going to the turn.

Then on the turn the board pair, which is really bad for him, because with the specific board texture and having opened from CO, I can basically have every single boat, that is possible, which is a total of 19 combos, that he is now drawing completely dead to. So at this point he just need to fold, even though I only bet 40% pot. Instead he call and "get there" on the river.

He then went for value, but what can he even get called by, which he beat? Like maybe AK, but since I have so many better hands in my range, I would not call here with AK. So when he jam, he is basically only getting action, when he lose or chop. And if he check, then I jam, and then he kind of has to call just hoping to chop, or that I am going crazy with two undercards to the board. And this is why, bad draws should just be dumped as early as possible. Or in some specific situations, where we have "range advantage", they can be played with aggression to try to take pot down without improving.

CardsChat Poker Hands Converter

Convert your hand history into forum code, plain text or relive your hand and create animated replays

www.cardschat.com

 

[christovam]

Which cards are most likely to make good draws?

 

[fundiver199]

Which cards are most likely to make good draws?

Suited aces and suited broadways.

 

[Andyreas]

Great post which I definitely enjoyed reading, fundiver! 🤗

So people, take notes of how not to do it. 🤓

 

[christovam]

Ases do mesmo naipe e broadways do mesmo naipe.

Thanks for the tip. But in that case, isn't the game going to be too tight?

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for the tip. But in that case, isn't the game going to be too tight?

In this case it was fine to defend Q3s preflop, and had the opponent flopped a flushdraw, it would be a decent one. Or he might have flopped top pair, which would also often be good. So its only postflop, that went wrong for my opponent. Call preflop, check-call flop (unless I bet really big), check-fold turn. That would have been the best way for my opponent to play this hand.

 

[christovam]

Neste caso, estava tudo bem defender Q3s pré-flop, e se o oponente tivesse flopado um flushdraw, seria um decente. Ou ele poderia ter flopado top pair, o que também seria bom. Então é só pós-flop que deu errado para meu oponente. Pagar pré-flop, check-call flop (a menos que eu aposte muito alto), check-fold turn. Essa teria sido a melhor maneira para meu oponente jogar esta mão.

Thanks again for your reply.

 

[MK_]

Good post, ..... dunno why but the cards don't show up in the player for me🤔

 

[fundiver199]

Good post, ..... dunno why but the cards don't show up in the player for me🤔

You have to press the "play" button. Other than that I have no suggestions.

 

[Mr.$t0k]

and how we play if we have 4 suited card on board?

 

[Lonnieloo]

With the flop I’m sitting on four suited(Texas Holden)I would check call then on turn I would check raise if he bet over my check

 

[Lonnieloo]

With the flop I’m sitting on four suited(Texas Holden)I would check call then on turn I would check raise if he bet over my check

If there were four suited on board I would check call them on river push large with a raise

 

[thedarkman]

Recently I posted a thread with the title "when draws have showdown value" and illustrated the idea with an example, where I somewhat to my surprice won at showdown with K high. The point being, that when we count outs and calculate pot odds, we also need to take into account the chance, we might actually already beat some of the opponents bluffs.

Equally important however is the quality of our draw. In this hand my opponent flopped an OESD, so just counting outs we would say, he had 8 of them. However this is far from true, because a lot of my range also contain a Q. If I have KQ, QJ or QT, he is only drawing to a chop or for the slim chance of hitting running 3-3 to make trips. If I have AQ or Q9, his situation is even worse, because then I have a straight already, and he can only hope to chop the pot.

The next problem is, that if he makes his hand, there will be 4 cards to a straight, which makes it difficult to get paid by a worse hand. So he dont have great implied odds, and he even have some reverse implied odds, if a 9 comes, and I have AQ. So while I would probably check-call a small flop bet is his spot, this is not a situation, I would choose to attack in any way, and I would be very cautious going to the turn.

Then on the turn the board pair, which is really bad for him, because with the specific board texture and having opened from CO, I can basically have every single boat, that is possible, which is a total of 19 combos, that he is now drawing completely dead to. So at this point he just need to fold, even though I only bet 40% pot. Instead he call and "get there" on the river.

He then went for value, but what can he even get called by, which he beat? Like maybe AK, but since I have so many better hands in my range, I would not call here with AK. So when he jam, he is basically only getting action, when he lose or chop. And if he check, then I jam, and then he kind of has to call just hoping to chop, or that I am going crazy with two undercards to the board. And this is why, bad draws should just be dumped as early as possible. Or in some specific situations, where we have "range advantage", they can be played with aggression to try to take pot down without improving.

CardsChat Poker Hands Converter

Convert your hand history into forum code, plain text or relive your hand and create animated replays

www.cardschat.com

There's an old story from I think the days of seven card stud. A guy owned four farms. He lost three of them drawing to a straight. He lost the fourth when he made it.