Profitability of Double-or-Nothing SnG's

[dsvw56]

So this all got started when I was teaching my brother how to play poker. I decided to start him out at the $1 Double or Nothing SnG's on Stars. I figured he could get quite a bit of play for his $50 starting BR here. As I was walking him through some games (I was playing, he was watching), just explaining the basic concepts of SnG's and flat payout structures to him, I cashed in something ridiculous like 12 straight. I had my doubts on whether or not these would be truly profitable or not, so this definitely caught my attention and I decided to do some research on the subject. I figure I'll just play 100 at each of the turbo levels, starting with the $1+.10's, up to maybe the $20's or $50's and just post my findings as I finish 100 games at each level. Knowing me, I probably won't follow up with this and be sick of it by the weekend, but whatever I'm bored of grinding and needed something to break the monotony.

Conclusion :

Well in my limited experience in the $1 games, I came to the conclusion that the average player in these is in fact a monkey . . . that's blindfolded . . . and obviously suffering from some illness that affects it's mental capacity. Seriously, I don't think most of the people that enter these know what poker is. No one seems to understand that 1st through 5th all pay the same. To be blunt, if you can't beat these games, you're obviously a total moron. Anyone with half a clue should be a pretty big winner. I had a pretty sizable win rate, and half the time I was doing multiple other things while playing 4 tables at once, such as chatting on MSN or reading the forums. I think these $1 games are an awesome way for someone with a limited bankroll to build it up. The games are ridiculously soft, and the variance appears to be ridiculously low and you can win at a pretty decent clip. What more could you ask for?

(don't ask how the Avg. Players came out to 10.01, PT3 is retarded. Either that or an 11th player snuck in there somewhere.)

Look for the next update from the $5 games to come in like a week or so . . . if you're lucky

 

[LuckyShark777]

Wow! Great post

 

[CardKiller18]

i expected a bigger ROI

 

[eNTy]

Nice to see this stuff analyzed in a bigger sample. Hope to see you following through on this especially near the higher limits. I play an occasional $10 one it must be said these are so low maintenance it's fun to just mindlessly fold to the money. Of course at some point you're going to have to double up and if you lose that flip for instance you're boned. I would like to know why you say that the variance is extremely low ? Is it just that 5 places pay or does it have to do with the cards and the players too?

 

[eNTy]

Wow! Great post

Aren't you that guy from the youtube vids ?
I think I even have you on xfire

 

[LuckyShark777]

Yea karmakrazy13 on xfire on jcheek13 on youtube

 

[dsvw56]

i expected a bigger ROI

Sir, please don't spam my threads to get your post count up so you can become yet another freeloader.


Anyways, about the variance issue, as you can see, I never suffered a downswing bigger than 3 BI's (I think, one of them might be 4). Obviously the sample here is ridiculously small, but still. I'd attribute it mostly to the fact that no one has a ****ing clue whats going on in these things. I could post numerous hands where people just do absolutely moronic things around the bubble. Most notably, in a recent one I was playing, we were on the bubble and there was a guy sitting out who had about about 1bb left. Yet for some reason people were still playing pots with each other and one guy nearly got eliminated. The guy had one big blind, was sitting out, so the next time he posted his blind, the game would be over, cause his hand would be folded. Yet here these guys were, betting and raising and calling and even getting it all-in against each other when all they had to do was wait. It's mind boggling tbh.

 

[eNTy]

It's profitable tbh So you going for the $2 ones now ? Before your head explodes of boredom ofc..

 

[Inscore77]

Sir, please don't spam my threads to get your post count up so you can become yet another freeloader.

Might as well get used to this.

 

[A-RAG]

Just gave these a shot this weekend on stars. Played 50 games at 1$ turbo level cashed 35. Most of my beats were caused by morons at the end of the play with 6 people left. Typical play small stack allin with 3 big stacks calling. Obvious we check it out to each other and hope to take down the low stack making the game over. For some reason there are many Morons that will bet the others out in this situation and many times lose the pot that someone else could have taken down. Lots more stupid play as you mentioned so not sure how profitable these can be. I have yet to move up past the 1$ stage so have no input on play at higher levels.

 

[JoeShowdown]

I played the 5.20 buyin double or nothing turbo sngs won 8 and lost 4. I don't see the logic in doing the 5.40 buyin sng, why pay stars 20 more cents just to have longer blind levels?

 

[Onadar]

i found when these first started they were extremely easy to beat, i think i was 18/18, over the weeks though i have seen alot more i don't know patient? players that just sit there, may as well be sitting out, just wanting to fold into the money, bubble out of a quite a few with great starting hands that some guy all of a sudden after an hour goes allin with nothing, hard to read someone who hasn't played a hand yet. i don't know if they get better or i just quit giving them any credit for a hand, even a monkey can catch AA on you.

 

[JoeShowdown]

I guess you are exaggerating about "after an hour goes allin with nothing" because I haven't even done one that lasted 40 minutes. I agree that they are getting tougher to beat.

 

[DertyJerz1014]

i played a few of the double or nothing games and i dont really like them too much... they are easy to cash in, but not very profitable for the time in my opinion

 

[dufferdevon]

Depends on what your definition of profitable is:

Let's assume you can win 65% of the time at any level and that a game takes 1/2hr to play. Two tabling 100 games would take 25 hours.

$10 turbo = $10.40/hr profit - start 4 tabling them and its $20.80/hr
$20 turbo = $20.80/hr profit - " " $41.60/hr

I don't know about you but $20 an hour is a pretty profitable winrate, imo.

P.S. In regards to the level of play, the lower buyins (up to $5) have seen a lot tighter play recently and then it becomes a shove fest once the blinds get too high. At the higher buy in levels ($10 - $100), players don't want to be blinded out or let luck decide the outcome and play more hands earlier on.

Once you have doubled your stack, TIGHTEN UP !!, there is no need to play marginal situations as you have 1/5 of the chips in play and enough to make the money. I dont recommend sitting out as you could miss opportunities to take another player out or increase your chip count.

And yes, you read that right, I am now rolled for $100 Double of Nothing SNGs. And it is all because of these new SNGs that I have been able to increase my BR rather quickly with less variance than say a MTT. I would still suggest having at least 10 buy ins for these and if you lose two in a row, drop down a level.

 

[some_d00d]

i just played 2 DONs and went 0/2, which means i am now 0/5 in DONs. In the first one i busted out after 30 minutes (AQ vs QQ) and there was still 7 players remaining ! They were all playing their marginals hands all the time and exchanging all their chips with each other, and none would ever bust out. In the second one I busted out in 6th when my AA was cracked by an idiot who called for 1/2 of his stack with K3. Either i'm cursed or pokerstars hates me.

 

[dufferdevon]

i just played 2 DONs and went 0/2, which means i am now 0/5 in DONs. Either i'm cursed or PokerStars hates me.

[ ] poker stars Hates You
[ ] You are Cursed
[X] Too Small a sample size

What stakes are you playing? Are you giving the stackers too much credit for a big hand? How many hands are you playing? You only have to win one of those all ins to make it into the money.

 

[PokerVic]

Every month PokerStars adds something that becomes my new favorite game. I absolutely love these games. One double-up, and you're 80% of the way to winning. I've got to put in a good word for the non-turbos, however. Several times I've run into a big hand early and been crippled. The 10-minute levels, coupled with the tight play, give you a real chance to come back. I won one after being reduced to 150 chips at 10/20.

It's also great fun to become chipleader in these games, and raise every pot.

I've been doing something similar to OP. After getting a sick win-rate messing around in the $5.40 DoNs, I'm playing (20) $10.80 games, three to four at a time. I'm currently sitting at 13 cashes out of 18 games, which translates to 33.7% ROI. (if my math is right)

I can't wait to see the results of dsvw56's experiment moving up stakes. I'd be interested in seeing just how far you have to go before the sharks outnumber the fish.

And don't think these games are just extended coin-flips. There's a lot of poker to be played here, and every pot is satisfying because you know how close it brings you to the win.

Think you're really an above-average poker player? Well here's your proving field; literally.

 

[some_d00d]

[ ] Poker Stars Hates You
[ ] You are Cursed
[X] Too Small a sample size

What stakes are you playing? Are you giving the stackers too much credit for a big hand? How many hands are you playing? You only have to win one of those all ins to make it into the money.

i'm playing the $1.10 turbos. i'm playing about 10% of hands. I doubled up once in both and it wasn't enough. In the second one I was in first place with 8 players left after a double up but i played tight and fell to 5th out of 6, about 50 chips in front of 6th place and that's when i busted with AA. I could have folded the AA, but the way things go for me in these DONs, i know i would have fallen to 6th eventually. bleh.

 

[some_d00d]

Well i just busted out of another. JJ against 44 and the other guy flopped a 4 of course. As soon as i saw his smaller pocket pair i knew i was toast. 0/6 now. this is getting pretty epic.

 

[eNTy]

Unlucky but standard: in one of my last 4 AA < Q5s and JJ< A9os on the bubble

 

[mickyb]

Yeah, IME most of the play in the $5 ones on william hill is pretty tight - get the occasional idiot of course. I'll be interested to see how your results change as you get to higher stakes - suspect you'll need to alter your style of play slightly, in the early stages small bets can work well - one-third of the pot will often take down a flop.

 

[LankanSoulja]

This is a very useful post. And I feel you on the players all being retarded blind monkeys. Sometimes I wonder if they know how to count.

 

[eNTy]

I just got 1/8 god I suck.
2 were due to stupidity, some coolers, some sick sick beats, some bubbles.
For instance 77 vs K2s retard on the bubble, god why didn't I fold it...

 

[RAMARAIDER]

It's not a real double up because your buyin fee is not included.