Luck vs Odds, something to think about.......

[MARCANE]

For as long as I have played I have always heard the it's rigged, has to be rigged thing. Along with the it's just luck and chance stuff Back about a decade ago, just before the crash within the poker world. I did a math experiment. I spent about a week jotting down notes on how many people were logged into Full Tilt, and number of hands being dealt per hour. Across a variety of stakes, games, time of day. I was confident that I had a solid general idea of how many hands were being dealt to how many players, on average, per day. I'm old and can't recall exact numbers, but the numbers were staggering! Hundreds of thousands of people were being dealt something like two million hands per 24 hour period......Think about that. Of all people, poker players, for the most part, have a grip on statistics, odds and probabilities. Something like 86 or maybe 88% of the time AA is dealt, it will be the winning hand. For that to be absolute, and we know it is, AA has to be, has to be cracked 12 to 14% of the times it is dealt. by that same token, 72os has to be the winning hand something like 21% or close to that, how many times it doesn't get mucked is another story. The number of how many bad beats absolutely have to happen, relative to 2 million hands a day being dealt, everyday, is phenomenal!


Okay, yes, I got my ass kicked all day today. I know only too well how much it sucks being on the losing end of those percentages. However, it's all good, remain calm and poker on. Brought to you by the alcohol fueled ramblings of MARCANE.......PEACE, may the flops be friendly and the rivers gentle.......

 

[GIRFIED]

It is amazing how many "conspiracy theories" you can find in this forum. Cardschat should create an exclusive thread for these theories, some are entertaining to read others resemble UFO sightings.
​

 

[ph_il]

It is amazing how many "conspiracy theories" you can find in this forum. Cardschat should create an exclusive thread for these theories, some are entertaining to read others resemble UFO sightings.
​

What part of this post is a conspiracy theory?

 

[thuliomano]

boy, really, there is something to be studied, there are people who make every shit just by luck

 

[wildjoker68]

ACR had admitted to cheating on their site. there has been other sites caught at cheating, have you any Idea how much it cost for an online poker site license? do you have any Idea who even own's the site you play on?
I understand with online poker sites, you will receive more hands in an hr live, I get that, but a 10- A Straight in a home game or a live casino will happen maybe 3 times an hr. and how many times have you seen them with online poker back to back, then 3 or 4 hands later 2 more back to back?

Online poker an A or a K hit the board 7 to 8 times out of 10.
Paired boards since PLO took off are way to high, like 70 to 80% of the boards pair. a Real deck an A or a K hit the board around 56% of the time, 42% of the time on the flop an ace or a K.
Paired boards. 42% of the boards will pair on average with a real deck, but online sometimes 4 to 6 times in a row. that's a bit much now don't you think?

A Dumb person will Argue everything, with, or without all the facts,
But a smart person will do his own Investigation before saying anything"
https://www.beatthefish.com/acr-confirms-cheating-refunds/

 

[terryk]

I can't win because,,,,

 

[TDTODDY]

Bigfoot is real. Just watched the new ufo video; THEY are out there. And everything is rigged in the Matrix. Get used to it.

 

[Herkstwin]

Lots of possibilities for anything to happen online. Be careful out there.

 

[thuliomano]

the person pays thinking about the ODDS but has to be lucky even if it doesn't hit there it was already your ODDS

 

[ILLCall77]

Interesting, and good points.

 

[danoscar]

Online poker wl never ever be truly random and each site seems to have it's unique way of eliminating the smaller stacks. Beware. I call it PEA, player elimination algorithm. If it happens to you, you got pead on!

 

[easy play]

What's there to think about Luck? We cannot do anything about it.

Entire focus should be on making +EV decisions and odds are an important factor in making that decision.

 

[arsenalcho_1]

hi

this is a very interesting and long topic, but in my opinion these probabilities are relative because sometimes luck intervenes and everything turns around and the impossible happens and the little chance of winning turns 100 percent

 

[Hsac]

For as long as I have played I have always heard the it's rigged, has to be rigged thing. Along with the it's just luck and chance stuff Back about a decade ago, just before the crash within the poker world. I did a math experiment. I spent about a week jotting down notes on how many people were logged into Full Tilt, and number of hands being dealt per hour. Across a variety of stakes, games, time of day. I was confident that I had a solid general idea of how many hands were being dealt to how many players, on average, per day. I'm old and can't recall exact numbers, but the numbers were staggering! Hundreds of thousands of people were being dealt something like two million hands per 24 hour period......Think about that. Of all people, poker players, for the most part, have a grip on statistics, odds and probabilities. Something like 86 or maybe 88% of the time AA is dealt, it will be the winning hand. For that to be absolute, and we know it is, AA has to be, has to be cracked 12 to 14% of the times it is dealt. by that same token, 72os has to be the winning hand something like 21% or close to that, how many times it doesn't get mucked is another story. The number of how many bad beats absolutely have to happen, relative to 2 million hands a day being dealt, everyday, is phenomenal!


Okay, yes, I got my ass kicked all day today. I know only too well how much it sucks being on the losing end of those percentages. However, it's all good, remain calm and poker on. Brought to you by the alcohol fueled ramblings of MARCANE.......PEACE, may the flops be friendly and the rivers gentle.......

Yeah, I even remember the bitter ramblings of poker players claiming the game was rigged back in the brick-and-mortar days before online poker. The ramblings have even gotten worse online thanks to easily accessed reviews. I believed it then, and I still believe it now, those ramblings are nothing more than the gripes of poor losers which in the long run are about 95% of players. I've even read reviews claiming the games are rigged online by players claiming to be professionals. Give me a break.