The Luck Factor

[enno]

I have seen a casino advertisement on TV and in it the statement ”there is no such thing as luck” appears.
Then why are there players who seem to win consistently (my wife) and why are there players who seem to lose consistently (myself)?
Now I would like to see if luck is a factor when playing poker.
In your opinion would you say
1) you have more good luck than average
2) you have average luck
3) you have more bad luck than average (I think that I am in this group since I lose more bad beats than I win). 😮‍💨

 

[Lena M]

I have seen a casino advertisement on TV and in it the statement ”there is no such thing as luck” appears.
Then why are there players who seem to win consistently (my wife) and why are there players who seem to lose consistently (myself)?
Now I would like to see if luck is a factor when playing poker.
In your opinion would you say
1) you have more good luck than average
2) you have average luck
3) you have more bad luck than average (I think that I am in this group since I lose more bad beats than I win). 😮‍💨

Hi
If your wife always wins, you are a happy man
Your wife can earn money and you can lie on the couch, I guess.
In my case, there are just different days, some days the profit is bigger, other days the profit is smaller. Everything is quite simple and there is no conspiracy.

 

[Dimidrol2]

I think there is a luck factor, but it is not permanent, but maybe your luck is ahead.

 

[PoorGypsy]

I have seen a casino advertisement on TV and in it the statement ”there is no such thing as luck” appears.
Then why are there players who seem to win consistently (my wife) and why are there players who seem to lose consistently (myself)?
Now I would like to see if luck is a factor when playing poker.
In your opinion would you say
1) you have more good luck than average
2) you have average luck
3) you have more bad luck than average (I think that I am in this group since I lose more bad beats than I win). 😮‍💨

Listen, if there is now luck, how pocket 4's can win pocket K's if there only one 4 left in a deck? It happened to me. Awful bad beat just before the final table.

 

[dorsk]

With no luck poker wouldn’t exist. Love luck even when you’re unlucky. If Hero has more bad beats than Villain we know one thing for sure: Hero is the better player.

 

[ancakeul]

casino is dangeros is better dont try , casino ruins lifes .

 

[85champ07]

My luck is an average amount of luck. Not really an easy thing to clarify as luck is a factor that only plays out when you need it. Is luck coming just as often as being unlucky? If you have T7o, you fold and flop comes 777; would you say your unlucky? It is sometimes easy to overlook lucky and unlucky situations. Being unlucky could be 50% of the time, but you aren't paying enough mind when your not actually in the hand. If you have monster cards and consistently being "unlucky",then maybe don't go all in as if you will win every time. So many draws get there after you have folded, this is just variance and is not related to a luck factor. When the turn card leaves you at 5% and 2 outs, and you hit the out and win the hand I would say that is a lucky situation.

 

[Flyer35]

I'm in the bad luck group.

Although, I know a woman (not my wife) who is definitely in the good luck group. It's uncanny.

 

[Newzooozooo]

Hi
I think I'm usually not lucky enough, not as much as I deserve
I think most poker players think that way. But in general, luck is probably the most important factor in a game like poker. Without luck, skills or experience are essentially just irrelevant.

 

[SPANKYSN]

I agree with some of the above comments that luck is essential for poker success. That being said, however, it seems that sometimes luck, especially bad luck, is the product of poor or passive play. If you eliminate the times you play tentatively or slow play hands, you may find that your luck mysteriously improves. There aren't many poker sessions where I haven't at least misplayed one or two strong hands into losing hands, losing big instead of a small win.

 

[Sparta77]

It is certain that luck is scarce to win a poker tour.If you are not lucky then the card is dead.I do not count myself among the lucky ones

 

[enno]

I agree with some of the above comments that luck is essential for poker success. That being said, however, it seems that sometimes luck, especially bad luck, is the product of poor or passive play. If you eliminate the times you play tentatively or slow play hands, you may find that your luck mysteriously improves. There aren't many poker sessions where I haven't at least misplayed one or two strong hands into losing hands, losing big instead of a small win.

I feel that if you lose due to poor or passive play (of which I have been guilty at times) it is not bad luck.
Bad luck (as mentioned in my first post - option 3) is when the hand is played properly, you have your opponent beat on every street up to the river, and he wins when he hits the river. To me, this is the definition of a bad beat.

 

[istbno]

Luck plays a significant role in the short term, as poker involves variance, where even the best hands can lose due to unpredictable card distributions. However, over the long run, skill prevails, as consistent decision-making, bankroll management, and strategy adaptation determine success. Luck influences individual hands, sessions, or even weeks of play, but skilled players mitigate its impact by making mathematically sound decisions. The more hands you play, the more luck "evens out," allowing skill to dominate. In essence, luck affects results in the short term, but over thousands of hands, skill is the decisive factor in long-term profitability.

 

[dorsk]

Luck plays a significant role in the short term, as poker involves variance, where even the best hands can lose due to unpredictable card distributions. However, over the long run, skill prevails, as consistent decision-making, bankroll management, and strategy adaptation determine success. Luck influences individual hands, sessions, or even weeks of play, but skilled players mitigate its impact by making mathematically sound decisions. The more hands you play, the more luck "evens out," allowing skill to dominate. In essence, luck affects results in the short term, but over thousands of hands, skill is the decisive factor in long-term profitability.

Spot on! If luck had a long term influence i.e. Daniel Negreaunu and Phil Ivey would be amongst the luckiest guys in the world - for decades. Truth is that they’re not more lucky than you and I. They’re just better players.

 

[Toruk Makto]

It's very important too! 👍

 

[MK_]

I think you need to tread very carefully here😅, are you saying your wife only wins cuz she's lucky....,

anyway luck is of course a factor in the short term but poker is a long term game👍

 

[Alex Houngan]

Luck definitely plays a role in poker, but skill and decision-making have a much bigger impact in the long run. While some players may feel they are consistently lucky or unlucky, variance is just part of the game. If you find yourself losing more often, it might be worth analyzing your strategy rather than blaming bad luck. Over time, skilled players tend to win despite short-term swings.

 

[dorsk]

Bad beats - unluck - pays the rent for skilled players. Luck keeps non thinking players logging on and losing in the long run.

 

[Leandro6803]

Luck is an important factor, but your decision can directly affect your profitability in poker, so look for better solutions in poker studies to have an advantage over your opponents.

 

[19aleks57]

In online poker, luck can visit you if there is an unplanned program error and you can win the tournament.

 

[Sparta77]

Luck is important. I know because I play poker without luck

 

[Poker Orifice]

I have seen a casino advertisement on TV and in it the statement ”there is no such thing as luck” appears.
Then why are there players who seem to win consistently (my wife) and why are there players who seem to lose consistently (myself)?
Now I would like to see if luck is a factor when playing poker.
In your opinion would you say
1) you have more good luck than average
2) you have average luck
3) you have more bad luck than average (I think that I am in this group since I lose more bad beats than I win). 😮‍💨

More luck? Less luck? Personally I've never bothered to check. It doesn't particularly interest me and partly because if I were to discover I was running a bunch below 'ev' on a particular day (in a particular tournament) or week... or month I think I could be prone to focusing on 'how unlucky I am'. In my opinion this is not where I want my mental state to be while playing poker.

fwiw, you can actually check how lucky you've been (or unlucky)... to a degree anyways. If you're tracking your hands (ie. via Pokertracker 4) you can look at your all-in ev

What can we gain from this? I suppose we can assume if we've been unlucky or not. It really only deals with a portion of the game... times when we're all-in

So if we discover we are running above EV we will likely not pay any attention to it but if we discover we are running below EV well then we can cry out "I am so unlucky!!! I 'should be' winning in these spots!"

I believe there's other ways to see if I'm playing well. And whether or not I'm lucky has no value for me.

I have watched some Twitch tv poker streamers and I must say the less appealing is when the streamer checks their ev and tells the viewers are much they are running below EV and then the whining commences. It can really place a player in a terrible mindset. Even if they think it is not affecting their play it will negatively impacting their thought process.

 

[Poker Orifice]

In online poker, luck can visit you if there is an unplanned program error and you can win the tournament.

I'm not sure if I'm understanding what you've stated here???
Are you suggesting that we'll require an 'unplanned program error' to win a tournament? (assuming you're suggesting that it's programmed to have us lose)

 

[Statsman1]

This is a fascinating discussion.

I believe that luck simply comes down to...

• if you are ahead, and you lose, that's bad luck. If you are ahead and you win, that's good decision making.
• if you are behind and you win, that's good luck. If you are behind and you lose, that's bad decision making.

If you are ahead when you HAVE to leave it to luck (so...after you call an all-in or go all-in), and you lose, that's simply bad luck and over time, provided you continue to make the smart decisions, you should win more than you lose. That is simply the math behind it.

If you are consistently behind when you have to leave it to luck....then you are making bad decisions; losing in those spots is not bad luck, it is the expected result. Winning in those spots, however, is GOOD luck, and this can often be confused with skill.

People who say, "When you lose, go back and see where you made a mistake. There is no luck." are simply wrong. When I call a shove with AA, and the villain shows 44 - there is no chance I made a mistake here. If I lose, it's just bad luck, and as the villain wins, that is simply good luck for him/her/them.

Luck can save us from poor decisions, but ultimately, smart decisions mean we need to rely on less good luck to save us.

 

[Rachidao]

Poker is a lot more luck than people usually think.